The top of the running back position is a mess for fantasy football. In 2023, of the top-12 drafted running backs by Sleeper average draft position (ADP) in half PRR leagues, only two met or exceeded their draft price, while four finished outside the top-24.  Many fantasy managers found success drafting running backs in the middle portion of drafts such as James Conner (RB23 in ADP), Alvin Kamara (RB25), Rachaad White (RB28), Isiah Pacheco (RB29), and James Cook (RB30). Those five running backs were going between rounds 6 and 8 in 12-team leagues and outperformed their positional ADP by more than 13 spots on average last year.

With the prevalence of “Zero-RB” and “Hero-RB” strategies, it’s as important as ever to take a deep look into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts and see where you can get value on the running back position. In this series, I’ll identify the five running backs that are primed to outperform their ADP in rounds 6-8 of fantasy drafts and help catapult your team to a coveted fantasy championship.

In this edition of the “Mid-Round Values” series, we’ll look at Carolina Panthers Running Back Jonathon Brooks, currently being drafted as the RB29 on Sleeper in the 8th round. Below, I’ll explain how a running back-friendly head coach will have Brooks finish as a top-15 running back this season.

History of Rookie Running Backs

Rookies are often viewed as risky picks for fantasy as it’s not known how their games will transition from college to the NFL. While NFL front offices are paid handsomely, they don’t always get it right, and for that reason, fantasy managers will often be scared away from taking rookies in their drafts. While certain positions have spotty track records for their rookie fantasy performances, such as quarterback and tight end, rookie running backs have been one of the most dependable assets in the game.

Over the past ten seasons, there have been 25 rookie running backs who have finished in the top 24. An average of 2.5 a season. In each of those seasons, at least one rookie running back has finished in the top 16. Only 2 out of those ten seasons did a rookie running back not finish in the top 10.

Rookie running backs make an impact for fantasy every year, and most of the time, multiple of them finish among the league’s best performers. This year’s top running back selected in the draft, Jonathon Brooks, is in line to be the next rookie running back on that list. Not only does the 46th overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft have a strong prospect profile that projects to transition well to the NFL, but he is also in the best situation of any rookie running back this year.

Brooks is the only rookie running back who projects to be the starter for their team this season. The rest of this class was selected to teams with established starters that project to keep their jobs atop the depth chart. While there could certainly be some injuries or surprise breakouts that lead to other 2024 rookie running backs leading their team’s backfield, at this point, Brooks has by far the clearest path to fantasy relevance.

A Skilled Back

Being the 1st running back selected in the NFL draft is already a significant accomplishment and indication of Brooks’ skill, but due to his selection coming in the 2nd round of the NFL draft, some may believe that he doesn’t have the elite skills of other highly drafted RBs. However, Brooks may have been in line for a 1stround selection if it weren’t for an ACL tear that ended his season in November. I’ll outline why Brooks’ skills should not be underestimated.

Last year, Brooks’ PFF rushing grade led all qualifying Power 5 conference running backs in the 2024 draft class. He also had the 3rd highest PFF receiving grade of that group of 36 of the top college running backs. Brooks had a better-rushing grade than Jahmyr Gibbs, Najee Harris, and Travis Etienne had in their final season of college.

Each of those running backs was selected in the first round of the NFL draft. Brooks also had a better-receiving grade than last year’s 8th overall selection, Bijan Robinson. Brooks is also the prototypical size for an NFL workhorse back at 6 feet tall and 216 pounds.

A Promising Situation

The Panthers made some significant changes to their team this offseason following a season that saw them tied for the lowest-scoring offense in the league. The Panthers failed to surround 2023 1st overall pick Bryce Young with reliable weapons.

The top player on the Panthers by average separation on their routes was Adam Thielen, who ranked 65th in the league. Only the Raiders had a worse average separation from their top separating pass catcher. The Panthers made it a priority to upgrade their pass-catching group, adding wide receiver Diontae Johnson from the Pittsburgh Steelers and drafting wide receiver Xavier Legette in the first round of the NFL draft.

The Panthers also made upgrades to their offensive line as well. Carolina ended the season with the 29th-ranked offensive line by PFF and is now entering 2024 with the 20th-ranked line. It’s still not a perfect situation, but a significant improvement on last year’s unit.

Potentially, the most exciting addition this season is on the sideline. Dave Canales will get his first shot at being an NFL head coach in Carolina this year. Canales has been credited with helping Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield to resurgent seasons in each of his last two coaching stops. While Mayfield’s comeback season last year was great, it’s Tampa Bay Buccaneer Running Back Rachaad White’s great season that is most interesting for this discussion.

White was a third-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft and has been criticized for his lack of explosiveness and overall rushing skill. His PFF rushing score ranked 52nd in the league last year with his yards per attempt not fairing much better at 51st. While White may not be a very skilled rusher in the NFL, he managed to finish as the RB7 on the season last year. That great finish was due to the 2nd highest rushing volume in the league and the 4thhighest reception total for a running back.

This gives us a glimpse at how Canales wants to operate his running back room. He likes using his running backs in the passing game and leans on a single bell-cow back for a vast majority of touches. The Buccaneers only ranked 23rd in rushing attempts last year but were ranked dead last in efficiency. While they may have wanted to run the ball more, their personnel didn’t allow for it.

Since Canales has become head coach of the Panthers it’s been clear that there is indeed an intention to run the ball a lot. Canales has said in interviews this summer that he plans to be “stubborn” about running the ball in Carolina. That’s not surprising, considering the significant investment the team made in the draft with Jonathon Brooks.

Brooks fits all the boxes that Canales likes in a running back. Brooks ranked 7th among Power 5 conference running backs in attempts per game, showing that he can take on a significant workload.

Injury Recovery and Return

Brooks tore his ACL on November 11th last year, and by all reports, the injury was a clean ACL tear with no additional structural damage. That is a great sign of a relatively fast recovery timeline. Brooks also benefits from the magical healing properties of being a 21-year-old top athlete. We’ve seen time and time again young athletes return from major injuries well ahead of schedule.

Just a year ago at this time, the fantasy community was having a similar conversation about 22-year-old Breece Hall and his recovery from an October 23rd ACL tear the year prior. Hall’s injury came just two weeks before Brooks’ in the year, and Hall was able to play week one.

Hall’s season last year provides a reasonable blueprint for Brooks this year. Hall started the season relatively slowly, not playing on 50% of snaps until Week 5. Once he was back to a full workload, however, he was able to return to form and finish the season as the RB4 for fantasy.

Brooks’ ADP has been falling recently due to Canales stating that they expect him to be ready around Week 3 or 4. While that has scared some fantasy managers who think that puts him well behind schedule, that timeline may indicate that the Panthers are waiting until Brooks is 100% before letting him see live game action. Instead of playing him in Week 1 without enough practice reps under his belt to feel fully comfortable with his knee, they’ll give him additional time to ramp up outside of game action.

Fantasy Strategy

While a running back missing the first few games of the season may scare some off, managers should consider where he is being drafted. A running back being taken as RB29 in the 8th round isn’t drafted to be in your starting lineup in Week 1 in most leagues. If Brooks misses even the first four weeks of the season, your starting lineup should be just fine without Brooks, as players are still healthy, and you don’t need to navigate bye weeks quite yet.

When looking at it from the perspective of the 2nd half of the season, who provides more upside in helping you succeed heading into your fantasy playoffs: Jonathon Brooks, Raheem Mostert, or Nick Chubb? Mostert is 32 years old and has only played 12+ games in 3 of his 9 NFL seasons. There’s a good chance that by the 2nd half of the season, Mostert will miss significant time with injury. Chubb is turning 29 this season and coming off a much more catastrophic knee injury.

At his age, there were already concerns about decline even before needing a complete knee reconstruction. Both of those older running backs are going ahead of Brooks in drafts right now. I’ll take the 21-year-old explosive rookie who is in line for a workhorse role during the 2nd half of the season.

Conclusion

Rookie running backs in the NFL provide valuable fantasy finishes every year. The most obvious fit for that role is the 1st running back drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft – Jonathon Brooks. Brooks plays on a team with a head coach who has been clear he wants to run the ball and led an inefficient rusher to an RB4 finish just a year ago. And Brooks is far from inefficient; he was one of the best rushers and pass catchers at the running back position in college.

If it weren’t for an injury that’ll hold him out for the first couple weeks of the season, Brooks would likely be going in the 4th round of fantasy drafts this year based on his talent profile and projected workload. Instead, you can get him late in the 8th round.

When you’re on the board in the 8th round, and Brooks is on the board, ask yourself this: Do I need Brooks to be in my starting fantasy lineup in the first 3-4 weeks of the season? The answer is likely no. By the time you reach the 8th round, you likely already have two running backs. The first 3-4 weeks are when our starters are most healthy, and before bye weeks cause the inevitable roster shuffle.

Brooks offers an opportunity to get a player who could be integral in winning you games down the stretch of the season when the money is on the line without costing you enough in draft capital to hurt your team early in the season. For that reason, you should be targeting Brooks in the 8th or even 7th round of drafts this year.