Philadelphia Eagles
-UNDER 10.5 wins
Despite the game-changing addition of Saquon Barkley, this Eagles' roster still has some clear and obvious holes, the most notable of which being at the center of the offensive line due to the retirement of future hall-of-famer Jason Kelce. I'm leaning towards a rather marginal under for a team that should still win their division.
New York Giants
-UNDER 6.5 wins
This one seems rather obvious. Outside of drafting Malik Nabers, it’s hard to see where this Giants team has managed to improve. The loss of Saquon Barkley severely hinders what little offensive production they had with him in the lineup, while having another year of being quarterbacked by Daniel Jones leaves them feeling quite uninspired and stale. They have also only surpassed six wins once since 2017.
Buffalo Bills
-OVER 9.5 wins
Another easy pick. Buffalo has won double-digit games in five consecutive seasons. Josh Allen was a rookie the last time their win total was in single digits. In spite of their questions at wide receiver, history shows that Josh Allen has proven to be a consistent winner, year in and year out.
Dallas Cowboys
-UNDER 10.5 wins
The amount of adversity in Dallas has continued to stockpile throughout the offseason. From a serious lack of activity in free agency to drawn-out contract situations with their three-star players, it’s hard to envision this team scrapping together 11 wins. This looks like an easy under.
Chicago Bears
-OVER 8.5 wins
This was a 7-win team last season that made significant improvements, making 9 or 10 wins appear to be a likely outcome even in the one of the league’s toughest divisions. The schedule appears to side with the Bears as well, with oddsmakers favoring Chicago in 11 of their 17 games.
Pittsburgh Steelers
-UNDER 8.5 wins
An uncertain quarterback situation combined with a brutally tough schedule and a likely overcrowded AFC playoff picture leaves the Steelers facing a barrage of hurdles. Their post-bye week schedule is almost enough on its’ own to scare away an over-pick. From Week 11 onward, they play each of their AFC North rivals twice, plus Philadelphia and Kansas City.
New York Jets
-UNDER 10.5 wins
The Jets earn the distinction of being the oddsmakers’ most overvalued team, along with the Cowboys. New York has only won 11 games in a season four times in their almost 65-year history and they have only accomplished this feat once in the 21st century. They should be good but more than 10 wins feels generous. Pick the under.
Kansas City Chiefs
-OVER 11.5 wins
A very slight and cautious over, even more so now that the newly-acquired Hollywood Brown could miss some game time. However, as long as they have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, winning at a high frequency is virtually guaranteed.
Baltimore Ravens
-OVER 10.5 wins
This number feels a bit low, given how Baltimore managed to win 13 games last season. And while I don’t expect them to reach that mark again this season, they should slot in comfortably around the 11 to 12-win mark.
Houston Texans
-OVER 9.5 wins
Another total that feels slightly…disrespectful? Honestly, I would have expected Houston to be overvalued with a rather high over/under, in the 10.5 or 11.5 range, which would have made them a good under-pick. Since the number sits at just 9.5, this is one of the more comfortable overs.
Los Angeles Rams
-OVER 8.5 wins
While the Texans’ number feels mildly disrespectful, this one is full-blown outrageous. The Rams boast arguably the second-best QB/head coach duo after Mahomes and Reid, supported by two elite receivers and an elite running back. They are quite formidable on defense as well, even with the subtraction of Aaron Donald. This one is worth putting money on.
Seattle Seahawks
-OVER 7.5 wins
Seattle’s offensive arsenal can make the case as the league’s most underrated. They have a star receiver in DK Metcalf, alongside two very good ones in Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Kenneth Walker also flies under the radar as an elite running back. This feels like yet another over.
Denver Broncos
-OVER 5.5 wins
The streak of overs continues with Denver. People seem to forget that this team went 8-9 last year. They’re not THAT bad. Bo Nix impressed in his preseason debut, enough so to earn the starting job. He played five seasons in college; he should be more ready to go than your average rookie QB.
Carolina Panthers
-UNDER 5.5 wins
Carolina feels like a 5-win team to me, meaning that this pick has to be under. Even with a reasonably improved roster, I can’t confidently expect this team to win six or more wins this season after going 2-15 last year.
New England Patriots
-UNDER 4.5 wins
Despite having the lowest projected win total in the league, under is still the right pick. This roster is about as bare as an NFL roster can get, with little to no salvageable bright spots likely to come through in the upcoming season. The decision to start Jacoby Brissett over Drake Maye also seems to emphasize that they have their sights on 2025 and beyond.
Miami Dolphins
-UNDER 9.5 wins
A very minor under but still an under nonetheless. Miami has serious questions on defense, a problem that was amplified with the retirement of Shaquil Barrett last month. The schedule doesn’t do them any favors either, especially down the stretch. From Thanksgiving onward, they face the Packers, Texans, 49ers, Browns, and Jets twice.
Cleveland Browns
-UNDER 8.5 wins
The toughest schedule in 2024 based on opponent win percentage belongs to the Cleveland Browns, which probably shouldn’t be a surprise since they play in the NFL’s toughest division in the tougher of the two conferences. On a different note, does anyone really believe anymore that Deshaun Watson can resurrect his former self from his Houston days?
Detroit Lions
-OVER 10.5 wins
A surprisingly low number for a team that was a few bad coaching decisions removed from going to the Super Bowl last season. They won 12 games in 2023, and nothing has happened to indicate that they can’t win 12 again (or at least 11 in this case).
Green Bay Packers
-OVER 9.5 wins
I get the continuing feeling that the oddsmakers are seriously under-appreciating the NFC North as we side with yet another over in that division. This time, it’s the Packers, who have seemingly struck gold at quarterback for the third time in a row. I wouldn’t bet against this group to win at least 10.
Cincinnati Bengals
-OVER 10.5 wins
This number is right on the nose for where I expect Cincy’s win total to lie, between 10 or 11. I’ll give the slightest of edges to the over, primarily owing to their last place schedule which could be the difference maker in a conference likely to be separated by razor-thin margins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-UNDER 7.5 wins
Another tricky one here, mainly because the team failed to get better from last year. The NFC South is still really bad, but the NFC as a whole has improved from last season. I'll cautiously side with a very slight under here.
Los Angeles Chargers
-OVER 8.5 wins
The newly-formed Herbert/Harbaugh combo is far too promising to not expect near-immediate success from, in spite of the shortcomings that the Chargers’ roster might have. In a division that’s quite shaky after Kansas City, L.A. should finish in second place and with several more wins than is indicated by the oddsmakers.
New Orleans Saints
-UNDER 7.5 wins
It remains absolutely bewildering as to why the Saints elected to retain the services of Derek Carr and Dennis Allen. Their roster also stayed in limbo with no significant additions whatsoever. They have become the epitome of NFL mediocrity. Even in the weakest division in football, I don’t expect much.
Tennessee Titans
-UNDER 6.5 wins
Being the obvious choice for last place in a division never bodes well, as is the situation for the Tennessee Titans. This team is well behind their three division rivals and almost all of the AFC except for New England and Las Vegas. Wins will be hard to come by for Will Levis and company.
San Francisco 49ers
-UNDER 11.5 wins
As is the case with Kansas City, there are multiple questions that come to mind. Will there be a Super Bowl hangover? How much do they truly care about the regular season after so much recent playoff success? There is also a minor concern surrounding Christian McCaffrey's health after he suffered an injury in practice. Their overreliance on McCaffrey is somewhat concerning should he miss time at any point this season.
Minnesota Vikings
-OVER 6.5 wins
This is one of my favorite picks of the bunch given how undervalued the Vikings are at this number. Minnesota is absolutely loaded on offense, while also managing to draft Alabama standout Dallas Turner to replace the departed Danielle Hunter. The NFC North is a ferocious division, but this is still one of the easier over bets.
Indianapolis Colts
-OVER 8.5 wins
This would have been a resounding over after the end of last season. However, Indy had one of the most boring and uneventful offseasons of any team, a real head-scratcher for a group that could have propelled themselves into contention with a big move of some sort. Anthony Richardson's return offers a good deal of excitement, but the rest of this roster has many of the same holes as it did last season. Even still, I’ll take the over…but not by that much.
Arizona Cardinals
-OVER 6.5 wins
A sneaky over here for a Cardinals team that significantly improved this offseason. Coming off consecutive 4-win seasons, Arizona has a lot of room for improvement. Drafting a future superstar at receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr. is the most notable on a long list of acquisitions they have made. Hovering around the 7 to 8 win range is not out of the question.
Washington Commanders
-OVER 6.5 wins
Talk about offseason acquisitions. Washington signed a whopping 23 players during free agency, providing rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels with an almost entirely new team compared to what took the field last season for the Commanders. Keep an eye on Washington not only to surpass this win projection but also to contend for a playoff spot.
Las Vegas Raiders
-UNDER 6.5 wins
The Silver and Black possess arguably the league’s least attractive quarterback room. They’re the only team in the league to not have a single QB on the roster that could foreseeably become their signal caller of the future. Now, without Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams is their only remaining spark on offense, and even he saw a decline in his numbers last season due to a lack of support.
Jacksonville Jaguars
-OVER 8.5 wins
I believe that Trevor Lawrence is the guy who will lead the Jags to a place of perennial contention. Last season was majorly disappointing after such a promising start. Whether they can rebound back into the playoffs or not, reaching at least nine wins feels like a given.
Atlanta Falcons
-OVER 9.5 wins
Having the easiest schedule in the league is always a sizable leg up. Atlanta has not played a single playoff team since last year after Week 9, making them poised for a smooth ride to the division title and giving them a clear pathway to stockpile wins. Expect Captain Kirk and friends to march to double-digit victories.
