After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes, that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes, that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
Stock Up
Joe Mixon – RB – Houston Texans
A 28-year-old running back isn’t normally the poster boy for Dynasty value, but his Week 1 performance has earned him a spot here. Prior to his Week 1 explosion, Mixon was ranked RB23 on the Dynasty aggregator Keep Trade Cut (KTC). He now sits as RB16.
This is still behind running backs Josh Jacobs and Rachaad White. If I’m a contender, I much prefer Mixon to those two. White looks like he could lose significant carries to fellow Dynasty riser Bucky Irving, while Jacobs didn’t dispel the worries about his efficiency and gave up a significant number of carries to the Green Bay Packers’ fourth-string running back.
Mixon may be older than those other two running backs, but all signs point to him having a dominant share of touches. All offseason, the Texans’ coaching staff talked up Mixon as a workhorse running back before following that talk up with action in Week 1 to the tune of 30 carries.
Those 30 carries didn’t come in a blowout game where they just wanted to ice the clock in the 2nd half. The Texans won by a margin of 2 points. With the Texans sporting the most dominant trio of wide receivers in the league, teams will struggle to take away the run game on a weekly basis. I project the gravity of those skilled receivers will be felt more in the red zone as the season progresses as well. Week 1 saw Stefon Diggs left wide open for two receiving touchdowns within the 10-yard line. That’s something teams will adjust for, and Mixon should be the biggest beneficiary.
Mixon’s added efficiency is a sustainable trend due to the gravity of the receivers mentioned above, as well as the new running scheme the 28-year-old back finds himself in. While a member of the Cincinnati Bengals, Mixon ran primarily out of shotgun and almost never found himself with a lead blocking running back.
The power-run scheme that the Texans employ will give Mixon, known for his vision and ability to take what’s blocked for him, plenty of room to operate. Mixon is a riser that I’m looking to acquire in any league where I’m solidly in my championship window.
Bucky Irving – RB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The new rookie back for the Buccaneers confirmed every Rachaad White owner’s worst fear in Week 1 – the Buccaneers found a rusher who isn’t terribly inefficient. I’m being a little bit harsh with White here, but it’s true that he’s struggled with efficiency as a rusher, and that was true again in Week 1.
While last year, the Buccaneers didn’t have anyone that could do any better, leading to White falling into a defacto workhorse role, this year, that’s not the case. White will still return value as a pass catcher out of the backfield, but at his cost, being a third-down back doesn’t provide much solace to owners relying on him in their starting lineup.
But let’s not get sidetracked; this is about Bucky Irving. Prior to Week 1, Irving was ranked as the RB44 on KTC and is now up to RB39. I think this isn’t nearly enough of a jump. Irving is still ranked behind Zamir White, Chase Brown, and Jordan Mason. White is in his third year and looks to be in a timeshare with fellow running back Alexander Mattison. If you can’t beat out Mattison for touches when you’re the presumptive starter, you probably don’t have great prospects to become a reliable fantasy producer.
Brown looks like the clear second option in the Bengals backfield committee and saw little opportunity as a rookie. Mason has value as a handcuff but is exclusively a handcuff while playing behind Christian McCaffrey. Mason could easily be included here as a riser, but I’m not buying it (unless I have McCaffrey).
Irving looked much better than his fourth-round draft capital. His quickness really showed in-game, and he was able to find his way through tight spaces much better than White. When he was on the field, the running game kept the offense moving, and if given more opportunities, he is bound to break off the occasional big play.
Irving has the potential to be this year’s Kyren Williams. A day-three running back who has a chance to overtake an incumbent who hasn’t been great on a good offense. The new Buccaneers offensive coordinator also spent time on the LA Rams’ head coach Sean McVay’s staff, making the comparison even more apt.
I’m not saying expect Bucky Irving to become as good as Kyren Williams, or for you to pay for him accordingly, but Irving is an underpriced young running back that has a better path to fantasy value than many of the names currently valued above him.
Fallers
Bryce Young – QB – Carolina Panthers
Ahead of the 2024 season, Bryce Young was holding on to his value as the QB21 on KTC, but after a Week 1 performance that looked like a continuation of his 2023 season, Young is now down to QB25. With fallers, it’s important to look at whether the market is acting too harshly or is still holding on to something that just isn’t going to happen. Unfortunately, I believe Young falls into the latter category.
Young is still ranked ahead of quarterbacks such as Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith. I’d happily take either of those options ahead of Young. Diontae Johnson and a new coaching staff were supposed to revitalize Young, but despite Johnson getting open many times, the results haven’t changed for Young.
I think both Smith and Cousins have reasons to expect some positive regression through the season that could make them valuable to contenders (and a valuable deadline trade chip for rebuilders), but Young hasn’t shown any of the promise the Panthers hoped for when taking him first overall in the 2023 NFL Draft. If anyone in your league is still holding on to hope for Young as a young player who could develop, take advantage.
Mark Andrews – TE – Baltimore Ravens
Here is a faller that I can put a positive spin on. Mark Andrews was one of the many highly-rated tight ends who put up an absolute stinker in Week 1. Unfortunately for his value, fellow Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely put up a monster performance in the same week. I think the market has overreacted in putting Likely three spots above Andrews, who is down from TE9 to TE6.
Andrews was well covered many times throughout this game as if the defense knew that he was a significant threat in the receiving game. Likely didn’t receive anywhere near the same attention, almost like they didn’t gameplan for his usage, and had an accordingly strong performance. I’m not saying Likely is bad, but as teams begin to gameplan for him in a way closer to Andrews, I believe his target share will drop significantly.
If Andrews wasn’t on the field and running routes, I’d be worried. Fortunately, that wasn’t the case. Andrews saw one of the highest route totals of any tight ends in the league this week while still playing 74% of snaps. He’ll return to his role as the primary pass catcher for the Ravens and should be valued accordingly. Reach out to your league’s Andrews manager and try to catch them panicking before it’s too late.
