No matter how your week one went, it’s okay; the season has just begun. Today, I’m going to help you make the right decisions to either go 2-0 or help vault yourself back up to 1-1. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections.
If you have any sit/start questions that I can’t get to on Reddit or want personalized team advice, click the link below and shoot me a message on Discord. Anyone in that channel will also be given access to my top 48 RB/WR rankings and top 24 QB/TE rankings each week. That being said, let’s dive right into the top sit/starts for week one of the fantasy football season!
Wide Receiver
Malik Nabers @ WAS
ESPN Projection - WR28
Despite the Giants and Daniel Jones looking horrible, Malik Nabers had a solid week one with 11.6 points off five catches (seven targets) for 66 yards. The thing is that Jones has the ability to be a solid quarterback and that would help Nabers a ton. On top of that, in week one, Nabers had an absurd amount of volume, running 70 routes, which was every single snap Jones played.
Expect the Giants to take a slight step in week two as the play another bad team in the Commanders. It should be fairly evenly matched and BetMGM has the over/under at a respectable 44 points. Any time you can start a talent like Nabers and his situation isn’t totally weighing him down you should be doing so.
Tank Dell vs CHI
ESPN Projection - WR29
After seeing Tank Dell only score 8.9 fantasy points in week one, many are starting to write him off. It may come as a surprise to many that Dell actually out-targeted Stefon Diggs seven to six. Expect Dell to see a consistent number of targets most weeks, as this offense is clearly very concentrated.
Looking ahead to week two, the Texans play the Bears which is a pretty good matchup. Looking at SportsLine consensus, the over/under is 45.5 points so there’s a good chance Dell can sneak his way into the end zone. Looking into the WR Coverage Matchup tool (expected matchup fantasy points per route run) by Fantasy Points, Dell has a rank of 17 which is above players like Ja’Marr Chase and his teammate Stefon Diggs. Throwing Dell in your flex spot is a great play for week two.
Sit
Zay Flowers vs LV
ESPN Projection - WR21
Zay Flowers is a player that I actually like starting most weeks, but he’s outside the FTR top 24 for week two. Although Flowers drew ten targets in week one, he only had 11.1 fantasy points, and the emergence of Isaiah Likely makes this offense very murky.
In week two the Ravens are taking on the Raiders which should result in a run heavy offense in the 2nd half and an overall low scoring game. Don’t believe me? SportsLine consensus has the Ravens as 8.5-point favorites, and the game has an over/under of 41.5 points. On top of all that the WR Coverage Matchup tool has Flowers ranked extremely low at 80 which is frightening. Flowers is a fringe WR2 most weeks, but I’d just keep him on the bench this time if you can.
DK Metcalf @ NE
ESPN Projection - WR25
Please do not call me an idiot for saying to start DK Metcalf when I said the same thing last week and he had 5.9 points. If I’m wrong I’ll take it on the chin but I deserve a little bit of respect. No more comments like “Who is spending a third round pick to SIT Metcalf in week 1? Come on this article is so stupid”. (Untill he burns me, then have at it).
Like I said last week, I believe Metcalf will be great for the Seahawks, as he’ll dominate on the outside. That will free up space for Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett but won’t help Metcalf. The over/under for this game is laughably bad at 38.5 points which really hurts his touchdown upside as well. Finally going back to our trust WR Coverage Matchup tool, Metcalf is ranked at 37 for the week. I’m going to get hate anyways aren’t I….
Running Back
Start
Tony Pollard vs NYJ
ESPN Projection - RB27
I’m just starting to realize that I’m doubling down on a lot of players heading into week two. Last week I called Tony Pollard a start of the week and he had a great 18.4 point performance. Pollard was the clear alpha, getting 16 carries versus Tyjae Spears with four. He also had four targets which was tied with Spears.
The Titans don’t have as good of a matchup but they’re playing against the Jets as only 3.5 point underdogs. Even if the Titans aren’t great, they should still be able to run the ball for the majority of the game. Looking at the Fantasy Points bellcow report, Pollard is expected to score 14.6 points which is 19th among running backs. Let’s get back to back starts right on my guy Pollard!
Aaron Jones vs SF
ESPN Projection - RB26
The main concern I have with Aaron Jones is his ability to stay healthy for a full season at 29 years old. Seeing him score 18.4 points in week one made me incredibly confident that he’ll be a great play when he’s healthy, though. Sam Darnold looked solid, and I’m somewhat optimistic about the Vikings offense as a whole.
In week two, the Vikings play the 49ers and the game has an over/under of 45.5 points. As good as the 49ers defense is, they weren’t amazing against running backs in week one, allowing 38.9 points, which was 11th in the league. The matchup isn’t amazing for Jones but he’s a guy I’m starting until he’s injured or shows signs of becoming dust.
Sit
Jerome Ford @ JAC
ESPN Projection - RB21
Jerome Ford came out with a big week one performance of 18.9 points in week one but I’m not sold on him going forward. A lot of these points came from a bunch of checkdowns in garbage time where Ford also scored a touchdown. That’s not something I predict to happen every week but Deshaun Watson looked awful. I’m not expecting Ford and this offense to have much upside going forward, which really hurts his stock.
The Browns are taking on the Jaguars in week two which has an over/under of 41.5 points and the Browns are 3.5 point underdogs. While it doesn’t look like they’ll be in a blowout, they’re not going to have the luxury to run the ball very much. I don’t absolutely hate the idea of playing Ford but if it’s possible he’s a guy that I’d sit on the bench until that offense figures it out.
Najee Harris @ DEN
ESPN Projection - RB24
After an 8.9-point week one, I can’t figure out why people are excited to start Najee Harris again. Jaylen Warren and his injury still don’t mean much to me, but if anything, he should be a little heather in week two. Justin Fields and the Steelers looked horrible, and Harris had 3.5 YPC. There’s little room for optimism there.
Now the Steelers take on the Broncos in a disgustingly low-scoring game with a 36.5 over/under. Even though the Broncos aren’t great by any means, they did allow the 11th least fantasy points to running backs with 24.6 points in week one.
Quarterback
Start
Dak Prescott vs NO
ESPN Projection - QB15
After one bad week Dak Prescott has already plummeted down rankings. I wasn’t super high on Prescott coming into the year but it’s hard to deny him as a top 12 quarterback. Let’s not forget that Prescott had a 20.2 PPG season in 2023.
Looking ahead to week two, the Cowboys have a great matchup as well, facing off against the Saints. The over/under is set at 46.5 PPG, which is above average for the week. On top of all of this, looking at the QB Coverage Matchup (efficiency measured in all converge shell types) by Fantasy Points, he’s ranked 4th in expected fantasy points per dropback.
Sit
Brock Purdy @ MIN
ESPN Projection - QB11
I’m not a big fan of Brock Purdy in general due to his lack of rushing upside and passing volume. Even without Christian McCaffrey the offense didn’t change much and Purdy had a weak 10.8 point showing in week one. Purdy is never going to be a set it and forget it guy and I’m looking for a low end QB1, I’d like to look for someone with more upside.
The Vikings matchup in week two is solid all across the board, it’s more just about Purdy. There’s nothing that really sticks out to me and indicates that Purdy will have a good week. While his Fantasy Points data is good, as 5.5 point favorites, I don’t expect the 49ers to throw the ball much in the 2nd half. Just leave him on your bench if you can.
Tight End
Start
Isaiah Likely vs LV
ESPN Projection - TE12
I didn’t expect to be saying this but there’s no way I can’t start Isaiah Likely in week two. I’m not sure I expect Mark Andrews to be himself in week two, considering the car crash he was in this off-season. He doesn’t look 100% healthy and the Ravens are using him as much more of a blocker. Likely on the other hand drew 12 targets and ran 35 routes.
Don’t expect the Raiders game to be a high scoring affair like we talked about with Zay Flowers but that doesn’t matter too much. When looking for a low end TE1, how can you pass up on a guy that scored 26.1 points last week. Ride the hot hand and take your shot if you need a TE9-12.
Sit
Dallas Goedert vs ATL
ESPN Projection - TE10
It seemed like the consensus around Dallas Goedert was that he looked pretty good in week one, but that just turned into 7.1 fantasy points. The Eagles still have so many mouths to feed that I just don’t feel good projecting out Goedert on a consistent basis.
In week two the Eagles play the Falcons which isn’t what I want for Goedert. As 6.5 point favorites, they won’t be forced to pass much and to make matters worse, PFF gives Goedert a -5% disadvantage on their TE Matchup Tool. I’d recommended leaning away from Goedert this week and only starting him when the Eagles have to air the ball out.
