We are quickly approaching the part of the season where injuries get added to bye weeks, and the options you have for your starting spots become increasingly slim. Playing the waiver wire starts to become less about who can give you production all season and who might be great in the short term (1-3 weeks). If you have any questions on who to add or drop, or want personalized team advice, click the link below and shoot me a message on Discord!
Quarterback Targets
Sam Darnold (16%)
I wrote about Sam Darnold in week 1, but despite him putting up QB1 overall numbers through three weeks, he is still only rostered in 16% of ESPN leagues. I don’t expect him to stay in that spot over the course of the season, but I do think he’s a good option. The league seems to have a shortage of high-quality quarterbacks, and my biggest consideration in separating a group of average quarterbacks is the weapons they have around them and the offensive play calling. Darnold has both. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones, and eventually TJ Hockenson are an elite group of receiving options, and Kevin O’Connell is a great offensive schemer.
Daniel Jones (6%)
Daniel Jones was the reason I didn’t draft Malik Nabers in any leagues this year, and I regret it. I didn’t think Jones and the Giants’ offense could support a legitimate WR1, but they are doing that and more. For fantasy purposes, Jones is serviceable on the ground, which is a huge benefit, with 19 rushing attempts through the first three games. With Nabers’ YAC ability and, Jones doesn’t have to do a ton with his arm to be a decent fantasy quarterback. To be clear, I’m not advocating for him replacing your starter, but as a bye-week fill-in, you could do a lot worse. The Dallas defense has been carved up by just about everybody this season and could be a sneakily good matchup for Jones next week.
Running Back Targets
Braelon Allen (28%)
Last week, when I wrote about Braelon Allen, he was only rostered in 7% of ESPN leagues. That number has increased, but not nearly enough. At the time of writing, he is the RB25 overall in ESPN, which is fringe RB2 status. That is incredible value on the waiver wire as we prepare for bye weeks to begin soon. He is probably a top 3 handcuff in the league and seems to be getting a good amount of work as the Jets look to keep Breece Hall fresh. I wouldn’t go so far as to expect him and Hall to mimic Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb in years past, but I do think he will continue to be a solid flex play with upside if he gets in the end zone. If Hall ever misses time, Allen catapults to RB1 consideration.
Bucky Irving (33%)
Irving seems to be turning the Tampa Bay backfield into a timeshare with Rachaad White. That’s great news for Irving owners, who hope that he can continue his ridiculous 7.3 YPC average in his two home games this year. Last year, White was an RB1 because of his volume, not his efficiency. If Irving can slowly eat into that volume while being more efficient than White, the opportunity for fantasy relevance is there.
Roschon Johnson (1%)
This is a pickup for the deep league players among us. In most leagues there are far better options available. The Bear’s backfield looked dreadful, which might be the best news Roschon Johnson could hear. D’Andre Swift is averaging an abysmal 1.84 YPC and is only relevant in PPR leagues as he has gotten a couple of receptions each game. In my mind, the Bears should use Swift as the receiving back and either Johnson or Khalil Herbert as their main rushing option. If that is the case, Johnson could at least get some opportunities to showcase his abilities.
Wide Receiver Targets
Alec Pierce (14%)
The Colts’ passing offense is confusing, frustrating, and, at times, awe-inspiring with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. He completes half-field missiles and misses 5-yard out routes. After a few games last year and two more this season, I feel confident saying that when Richardson has statistical success, it will be with his legs and long, downfield passes rather than short and intermediate ones. This bodes well for Alec Pierce and not so well for someone like Josh Downs. While Pierce will be a boom-or-bust type of player, he is a threat for significant yardage and touchdowns on a weekly basis.
Jauan Jennings (36%)
Obviously, Jennings had an extraordinary week and will regress from his week three stat line, but there’s a lot to like about him moving forward. Taking his whole season into account, he’s averaging seven targets per game, which is sufficient for a starting receiver on most rosters. Of course, part of the reason that he was so successful this week was that Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey were all out, but I would not be surprised to see many of those guys miss more time throughout the season, providing Jennings with more work in those weeks.
Wan’Dale Robinson (15%)
Robinson has gotten largely lost in the shadow of Malik Nabers, but he’s having a great season so far himself. Robinson is averaging eight targets per game and is the clear second option on the team. In fact, I would say that he is benefitting from the attention that Nabers is demanding, and the Giants have very minimal options outside of Robinson and Nabers. This means that Robinson is getting the right mix of a good target share and not being the priority of the defense. To this point, his lowest week in PPR has been 9.8 points. That kind of production should earn him a roster spot in every league.
Tight End Targets
Tyler Conklin (28%)
Before the season, I went through the 2023 stats and made a list of the tight ends who fit the following criteria: Top two in target share on their team, at least 85 targets on the season, and didn’t experience a significant change with target competition. The list included many of the usual top tight ends, such as Kelce, Andrews, and Laporta, but the name that surprised me was Tyler Conklin. He produced high-end TE2 numbers last year without reaching the end zone, which leaves room for some positive regression. With the dismal tight-ends landscape so far this year, Conklin is a solid add. With the Jets offense beginning to click, he could have more opportunities as the season goes on.
Cole Kmet (26%)
That list that I mentioned above with Tyler Conklin would have included Cole Kmet, but I excluded him because of the new target competition he has this year with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. That looked to be a big factor in the first two games, but this week, Kmet was Caleb Williams’ preferred target. Since this was one of the games I watched this week, it feels right that Williams is trying hard to get his feet under him and needs a safety net. He’s seeming to click with Odunze, but I think Kmet will be the last read when he needs somewhere to go with the ball. With so many mouths to feed, Kmet may be a boom or bust type of guy, but with most tight ends being solely busts, his week three performance and future outlook are a breath of fresh air.