It’s time to set our lineups for week four, the fantasy football season, and I’m beyond excited. Below, I’m going to help you set your week four lineups by looking at some of the biggest start/sit decisions of the week.
The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. If you have any sit/start questions that I can’t get to on Reddit or want personalized team advice, click the link below and shoot me a message!
Wide Receiver
Start
Amari Cooper @ LV
ESPN Projection - WR29
After a slow start to the year, Amari Cooper really turned it on in week three. The question wasn’t necessarily the talent with Cooper as he’s drawn a 20.5% team target share. The bigger issue was that Deshaun Watson has looked like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. While Watson didn’t look amazing, he helped propel Cooper to a 27.6-point performance last week.
The matchup this week against the Raiders is also pretty good for Cooper. So far, the Raiders have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to wide receivers (110.9) in the NFL, which is fairly above average. The game doesn’t provide much touchdown upside with an over/under of 37 points (Vegas Insider), Cooper wins off of targets. In a favorable matchup, Cooper is at worse a FLEX play.
Drake London vs NO
ESPN Projection - WR20
I’m very surprised to see Drake London near the 20’s after things have started to trend up. London is coming off of a 17.4 and a 18.7 point performance and also saw six and nine targets in those games. London needs Kirk Cousins to step up and after a rough week one, Cousins looks more comfortable every week.
Looking into some advanced stats from Fantasy Points, they love London as well. Using the WR/CB matchup tool, which takes the player’s effectiveness versus the scheme of their upcoming opponent into account. London ranks 8th on the week in expected fantasy points per route run in that metric. If you still believe in Cousins, you should absolutely be starting London in week four.
Sit
Courtland Sutton @ NYJ
ESPN Projection - WR26
Courtland Sutton looked encouraging last week drawing 11 targets and scoring 13.8 fantasy points. There’s players that I absolutely hate starting but Sutton isn’t one of them. In a deep league I can see the other side of the coin, I’m just not there yet. Even though I was much higher than most on Bo Nix, he still hasn’t gained my trust to start Sutton.
Going back to the WR/CB matchup tool, Sutton is ranked 69th in expected fantasy points per route run on the week. As a big body receiver, Sutton typically provides a lot of touchdown upside which can make up for some poor metrics. However this game has an over/under of 39.5 points which isn’t very good. I can see the other side of the coin, but Sutton seems like a guy you want to keep stashed on your bench for the moment.
George Pickens @ IND
ESPN Projection - WR27
I’m very familiar with the narrative that George Pickens got screwed over by penalties in week three. I’m not denying it or saying it doesn’t matter, but either way, Pickens is not a good start. As long as Justin Fields is starting, Pickens isn’t going to be a good option in fantasy football. We saw Fields have 245 passing yards and 32 passing attempts, which was his best game of the year.
If Fields regresses just a little bit, there’s going to be no volume to go around for Pickens. On top of that, Pickens hasn’t gone above seven targets on the year, which is a cause for concern. Even in a good matchup, I’m not playing Pickens due to his quarterback play. I honestly expect Fields to manage this week’s four matchup very well, but that will likely force him to slow down the pace of play and limit the volume.
Running Back
Start
Kenneth Walker @ DET
ESPN Projection - RB21
Even coming off an injury, I’m not benching Kenneth Walker any longer. Unless you play in a very smaller league, Walker is much better than the RB2 options. The last time we saw Walker, he looked great, scoring 18.9 points in week one.
I’ll admit that the Lions aren’t a good matchup for Walker with how dominant they’ve been. That being said, the game has an over/under of 47 points which will give Walker some touchdown upside. For me it comes down to the players you’d be starting over Walker and I’d much rather bet on his talent every time.
David Montgomery vs SEA
ESPN Projection - RB20
I’m not even the biggest fan of David Montgomery but he keeps getting underrated each week. So far this year Montgomery is averaging 18.2 PPG so I’m absolutely riding the hot hand. So far this year Montgomery has looked fairly efficient averaging over 4.5 YPC in two of his first three games.
Looking at the over/under is important for all players but especially Montgomery. As the goal line back on a fantastic team, Montgomery has proven himself to be able to score touchdowns on a consistent basis. In week four the over/under is set at 46.5 points which is the third highest total of the week. I’m starting Montgomery as my RB2 with the expectation that he’ll at least give you his usual touchdown.
Sit
D'Andre Swift vs LAR
ESPN Projection - RB23
Until further notice there is no way I’m starting D’Andre Swift. As a Bears fan, I’ve had to watch him look awful for the past three games in a row. Even when being touted as a receiving back 1.3 and 1.5 YPC is awful. In the receiving game he’s been targeted 10 times and has only turned it into six catches for 46 receiving yards.
The game script and other factors aren’t terrible, but Swift needs a dream scenario to sniff my lineup. Due to his poor performance, “Roschon Johnson is expected to have an expanded role in Sunday’s game” per @JFowlerESPN. Do not start Swift this week under any circumstances.
Jerome Ford @ LV
ESPN Projection - RB25
I don’t hate the idea of playing Jerome Ford as much as Swift but it’s just not ideal. Outside of his big week one, where he capitalized on garbage time touches, Ford hasn’t had more than 10 points. While the Browns offense looked a little better, Ford isn’t some kind of elite talent and is a product of his situation. If Ford is playing in a below average offense, he’s going to look like a below average back.
The argument for Ford is that the Raiders have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points tor running backs this year (93.4 points) which I fully understand. That said, the game has an over/under of 37 points which is awful. If you have to start Ford, It’s not the end of the world but there’s a number of other backs that make my top 24 over him.
Tight End
Start
Sam LaPorta
ESPN Projection - TE12
I never thought that I’d be having this discussion in week four, but Sam LaPorta is projected as a back-end TE1 this week. Even so, I’m still starting LaPorta, even though he’s averaged 5.8 points this year. The bottom line is, who are you going to start over him? Once you get outside the top six or so tight ends, it’s a crapshoot anyway.
If I’m taking a shot on someone anyways I’d much rather take the tight end that was being drafted as a consensus TE1-2 this year. Tight ends are often very inconsistent so you’re just hoping the first few weeks was a weird stretch. The Seahawks are also a very good matchup for LaPorta as they’ve allowed the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends this year (37.2 points).
Sit
Evan Engram @ HOU
ESPN Projection - TE8
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are officially on fraud watch. I’ve been saying that Lawrence isn’t a top 10 quarterback for years now but it’s just now starting to catch on. On top of that this is Evan Engram’s first game coming off his hamstring injury. Those can tend to linger and it’s not like Engram has shown anything yet this season either.
Looking ahead to week four, the Texans have played tight ends very well so far this season. Right now, they’ve allowed the six fewest points to tight ends in the league (16 points). I’m not a fan of starting Engram in a bad matchup when his situation looks terrible right now.
Quarterback
Start
Patrick Mahomes @ LAC
ESPN Projection - QB10
Similar to Sam LaPorta, I didn’t think that we’d be having this discussion in week four. People are just starting to catch onto the fact that the Chiefs have become much more run-heavy in the past few years. While Mahomes still has the potential for big games, he’s not one of the top quarterbacks anymore because he doesn’t have rushing upside.
With that said, QB10 is still way too low for my liking. The matchup isn’t great but the over/under is a respectable 40 points. Similar to the tight end position, the back end QB1’s typically lack upside. Even though Mahomes isn’t great at running the ball, he still has upside with his arm.
Sit
Brock Purdy vs NE
ESPN Projection - QB10
Assuming Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are both out, I’m still not starting Brock Purdy. Even though Purdy had 25.8 points last week, his matchup gets much worse. Outside of week three, Purdy hasn’t scored above 15 points this season, either.
Surprisingly the over/under for the game is currently at 40.5 points but I don’t expect it to be that high scoring. It’s also not a great matchup for Purdy either as the Patriots have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year (50). Assuming Purdy is without his superstars, I see him as a very risky start.