After one of the best Thursday Night Football games in recent memory, it’s time to look ahead to the rest of the week. In order to help you set your lineups for week five, I’m going to share the top 24 quarterback and tight end rankings I constructed through statistical analysis, matchup data, sportsbook data and film. On top of that I’ll also share my must start player who is on the border according to ESPN projections. If you have any sit/start questions that I can’t get to on Reddit or want personalized team advice, click the link below and shoot me a message!
Week 5 Quarterback Rankings
Excluded - Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield
Tier 1
1. Lamar Jackson @ CIN
2. Josh Allen @ HOU
3. Jayden Daniels vs CLE
Tier 2
4. Kyler Murray @ SF
5. Joe Burrow vs BAL
6. Jordan Love @ LAR
7. C.J. Stroud vs BUF
8. Patrick Mahomes vs NO
9. Justin Fields vs DAL
Tier 3
10. Anthony Richardson @ JAC
11. Brock Purdy vs ARI
12. Geno Smith vs NYG
13. Dak Prescott @ PIT
Tier 4
14. Sam Darnold vs NYJ
15. Matthew Stafford vs GB
16. Trevor Lawrence vs IND
17. Deshaun Watson @ WAS
Tier 5
18. Caleb Williams vs CAR
19. Derek Carr @ KC
20. Daniel Jones @ SEA
21. Joe Flacco @ JAC
22. Aaron Rodgers @ MIN
Tier 6
23. Andy Dalton @ CHI
24. Bo Nix vs LV
Must Start: Quarterback
Kyler Murray @ SF
ESPN Projection - QB11
For the FTR start of the week, the players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. I was a bit surprised to see Kyler Murray as the QB11 (per ESPN), but based on the fact that he’s only had one week over 15 PPG, it’s not shocking. That being said, once you get outside of the top six quarterbacks, or at least tier three, most of these players won’t make a difference in your lineup.
It’s not like Murray has a crazy low floor, and his ceiling is 28.5-point games like in week two. Even facing a tough 49ers defense, the game has a 49.5-point over/under (BetMGM NFL odds), which should result in a shootout. One of the main reasons Murray has struggled is that he’s only had one game with over one touchdown, but I don’t expect that to be the case in week five.
Week 5 Tight End Rankings
Excluded - Kyle Pitts, Cade Otton
Tier 1
1. Travis Kelce vs NO
2. George Kittle vs ARI
3. Trey McBride @ SF
Tier 2
4. Brock Bowers @ DEN
5. Dalton Kincaid @ HOU
Tier 3
6. Jake Ferguson @ PIT
7. Evan Engram vs IND
Tier 4
8. Taysom Hill @ KC
9. Tucker Kraft @ LAR
10. Pat Freiermuth vs DAL
11. Dalton Schultz vs BUF
12. Cole Kmet vs CAR
13. Zach Ertz vs CLE
14. David Njoku @ WAS
15. Colby Parkinson vs GB
Tier 5
16. Noah Fant vs NYG
17. Tyler Conklin @ MIN
18. Isaiah Likely @ CIN
19. Mark Andrews @ CIN
20. Mike Gesicki vs BAL
Tier 6
21. Hunter Henry vs MIA
22. Juwan Johnson @ KC
23. Jonnu Smith @ NE
24. Greg Dulcich vs LV
Must Start: Tight End
Brock Bowers @ DEN
ESPN Projection - TE11
The tight-end position is at an all-time low, and to be honest, while I’m giving my best predictions based on research, that’s gone out the window most weeks. In order to combat a lot of this randomness, my thought process has been taking players with a ton of upside. Even players like Mark Andrews and Sam LaPorta have such a low floor, so it can clearly happen to anyone this year.
That said, it’s not like Brock Bowers even has a really low floor, as he’s averaging 10.7 PPG and is currently the TE3. It makes no sense to bench a guy like that, regardless of the matchup. The more confusing part is that Bowers doesn’t even have a bad matchup, either. The Broncos have also allowed the 14th most points to tight ends this year (39.7), which is above average. I just can’t imagine you have any other option than Bowers on your team, especially this week.