After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes, that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes, that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
All values are based on Keep Trade Cut valuations. Although every league is different, KTC provides a good generalization of how fantasy managers value players.
Risers
Tucker Kraft – TE
Green Bay Packers (Sell)
In redraft Kraft has been a great value as he was on waivers even into this past week. In Dynasty though, Kraft is all the way up to TE9 after going into the week as the TE19.
I think Kraft is a very good player, but Dynasty is about playing the value game, and I think Kraft is overvalued following a couple of good weeks. There are simply too many mouths to feed in Green Bay, and quarterback Jordan Love and head coach Matt LaFleur have shown they’re happy to spread the ball around. Everyone is aware of the deep, wide receiver room in Green Bay already, but too many are discounting Luke Musgrave as a non-factor. While Kraft could very well be the leader in the tight end room, last season showed that Musgrave can catch fire in games as well. Kraft will still have some big games, but his weekly floor is too low to be ranked as the TE9.
Beyond the wide receiver and tight end rooms, there could be added competition coming from the running backs. 2024 3rd-round pick Marshawn Lloyd will be returning from IR soon. The explosive back will bring big play and pass-catching ability to a team that is already full of playmakers. Green Bay has also had one of the highest percentages of touchdowns from pass-catchers since Love took over for the Packers. While it could be a trend of things to come, it’s likely we’ll see some regression to the mean, resulting in more rushing scores.
For me, this is also a situation where the market values tight ends too highly. Kraft, as TE9, is valued ahead of a 2025 early 2nd-round pick. In a deep running back draft, an early 2ndround selection could land you someone with a real shot at becoming a starting NFL RB in their first year. I don’t think a low-end TE1 is nearly as valuable as any rookie running back with a path to be the team’s starter of the future.
For contending teams, Kraft is currently valued well ahead of Travis Kelce, who is in line to once again dominate targets for Kansas City following the season-ending injury to Rashee Rice. I’d much rather have Kelce than Kraft straight up as a contender, and if I’m able to get something on top, that’s great value.
Darnell Mooney – WR
Atlanta Falcons (Buy)
Mooney entered this week as the WR57 and is now the WR46 following a massive showing on Thursday Night Football. I don’t think the hype was nearly caught up to the reality with Mooney. This is the clear number-two receiver for an emerging offense in Atlanta.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins specifically requested the team sign Darnell Mooney, and his admiration of the receiver has shown to the tune of 40 targets through 5 weeks – good for 15th among wide receivers in the NFL. This isn’t coming out of nowhere either; Mooney was the WR23 in 2021 on 140 targets. He was a part of some terrible Bears offenses, and now, with more competent play calling, he’s showing what had people excited following his sophomore season.
Some may point to Kyle Pitts as an impediment to Mooney’s role as the number two pass catcher for the team, but Pitts’ play on the field hasn’t indicated any threat there. Coaching, quarterback play, and injury have been somewhat reasonable excuses in the past, but with a clear path to the number two role and a clean bill of health, Pitts has been underwhelming while Mooney thrives.
From a Dynasty perspective, this should be a sustainable workload for Mooney. The Falcons have a very significant number of high draft capital skill players on this offense, making it unlikely that they’ll look to use significant capital to add to that group moving forward. At only 26 years old, Mooney is set to hold the number two pass catcher role in Atlanta for the foreseeable future. I think Mooney could be a solid WR2/Flex play for the next few years, and at the cost of a 2025 2nd-round pick, I think that’s a steal.
Fallers
Aaron Jones - RB
Minnesota Vikings (Buy)
Following a week when Jones left the game due to injury, his stock has fallen from RB23 to RB32. Getting injured at some point should have been expected for the veteran running back. An injury heading into a bye week is the best-case scenario. Jones may miss a week after the Bye as well, but losing a week of production from a running back during a season is expected, no matter how much of an iron man they are.
Jones is the RB10 on the season currently, despite missing the majority of the Week 5 contest. He’s been a very efficient runner and active receiver out of the backfield. He’s done so while playing under 65% of snaps in 4 of 5 games so far as well. The running back receiving the rest of the 35% of snaps has been Ty Chandler.
This isn’t a situation where the young back will use his time as the starter to take the role away from the veteran. We know what Chandler is. The Vikings know what Chandler is. The fact that Chandler has already been 35% of snaps a game with Jones means there’s little room for him to increase his usage. If Jones was relying on 90%+ of snaps to perform as a fantasy asset I’d worry about Chandler proving he deserves a more prominent complimentary role, but nothing has indicated Chandler deserves to leap Jones on the depth chart. There’s a reason that the Vikings brought in Jones, after all.
Running back, more than any other position, is one to take year by year in Dynasty. Players don’t last long, and turnover outside of the top few players is high. Running backs that you can plug into your lineup are found late in drafts and through waivers every year. There are always cheap veteran options or injury fill-ins available for a 3rd round pick. For that reason, I don’t discount older running backs who have shown they have not yet hit the age cliff. Through the first few games of the season, Jones has shown he hasn’t hit that age cliff yet. While Jones may be a one-year rental, the mid-late 2025 2nd that it’ll take to acquire him is well worth the fringe RB1 performer you’ll get for your championship run.
Jerome Ford – RB
Cleveland Browns (Sell)
With Nick Chubb’s impending return, Ford has dropped from RB48 to RB41 this past week. Ford is still valued ahead of a late 2027 2nd or early 2025 3rd. I’ll take those picks easily over a replacement-level 3rd year running back on a bad offense with an established veteran returning from injury.
The Browns have committed historically bad quarterback play for another week, and that may be all the time Ford has left as the starter in Cleveland. Even if Chubb can’t return anywhere near his former level as a rusher, the Browns will work him into the offense. The Cleveland rushing game is not anywhere near as effective as it used to be and Ford provides next to no value if he isn’t receiving 70%+ of snaps.
Even at his ceiling, Ford never produced enough to be a difference-maker in your lineup. If you’re relying on him to be in your starting lineup this season, you aren’t competing. And if you’re not competing, sell him for an early 3rd in this draft that is deep at running back. With a deep incoming rookie class of running backs, not only are you more likely to find a difference-maker deep in your rookie draft than normal, but Ford is also more likely to have a difficult job finding significant work as an NFL running back moving forward.
NFL teams have little loyalty to their rushers, and Ford hasn’t proven himself as anything but a fill-in at the NFL level. Get out before his value craters further.