Week six of the NFL season has kicked off, and I hope everyone crushed their Thursday night matchups. If not, that’s what this article is for! The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. Let’s dive right into the biggest Start 'Em Sit 'Em decisions for week six.
Wide Receiver
Start
Mike Evans @ NO
ESPN Projection - WR21
I get that Mike Evans is going up against Marshon Lattimore but seriously what are we doing. The NFL is in a much different place to where even an X receiver like Evans isn’t going to be matched up with Evans for the whole game. Considering the fact that Evans also can score 20 points on 2-3 plays, there’s no way you can ever sit him.
The ironic part about the whole Lattimore argument is when you take everything into account with PPF’s WR/CB tool, his grade is still “good” at 67.4 (/100). When you have a player that’s scored 23 points in 3/5 games this season there’s no way you can feel good about sitting him.
DeVonta Smith vs CLE
ESPN Projection - WR29
DeVonta Smith hasn’t been on the football field since week three, but ranking him as the WR29 is a bit too far. Smith suffered a concussion, but this is the first one he’s ever had, and the Eagles were very safe with how long they had him sit out. Contrast that with A. J. Brown has been given adequate rest, but he’s coming off a hamstring injury, which almost always nags at the player. Even if Brown does look 100%, Smith scored 15.4 points next to Brown in week one and 20.4 points without him in week two.
Looking ahead to week six, the Browns have actually been an above-average matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 13th most fantasy points per game (175.1) this year. Taking a look at PFF’s WR/CB matchup tool, Smith has a “good” matchup with a solid score of 83.3. Sportsbooks don’t expect this to be a shootout, but BetMGM has this game with a respectable over/under of 43 points. In 10 and 12-man leagues, I don’t see how you can afford to leave Smith out of your lineup entirely.
Sit
Jakobi Meyers vs PIT
ESPN Projection - WR24
As much as I love Jakobi Meyers for being my most drafted player in best ball last year, WR24 is crazy even without Davante Adams. The Raiders quarterback play has been atrocious, and Gardner Minshew just got benched for Aidan O'Connell. At least we saw Minshew support Michael Pittman Jr last year, but O'Connell has never shown signs of promise. In the two weeks Adams has been gone, Meyers scored 9.9 and 13.2 points. In fact, in week four, Tre Tucker had 15.4 fantasy points, and the gap between the two isn’t as large as some think.
The Steelers have also been very good against fantasy receivers this year, allowing the 10th most fantasy points (155.3). To make things worse BetMGM expects this game to be an offense mess, putting the over/under at 36.5 points. I don’t expect Davante Adams to play another snap for the Raiders, so I would keep Meyers on your bench and wait for a favorable matchup.
George Pickens @ LV
ESPN Projection - WR25
My issue with George Pickens stems beyond the football field, which is something I almost never say. Frankly, I couldn’t care less if he’s a diva, but while the Steelers organization won’t admit it, they’re holding Pickens back. The difference with Pickens is that he’s not a Steffon Diggs-level talent that can force his way onto the field. Steelers beat reporter Nick Farabaugh wrote, “Arthur Smith says that George Pickens' snap count will vary week to week.”
All of these are bad signs for a player that you’re putting in your starting lineup. Keep in mind that Pickens has scored over 11 points twice this year. The matchup isn’t even good either, as the Raiders have allowed the 11th least fantasy points to wide receivers (161.3) this year. I wouldn’t touch Pickens until he proves that he can score fantasy points on a consistent basis.
Running Back
Start
J.K. Dobbins @ DEN
ESPN Projection - RB23
J.K. Dobbins doesn’t have a phenomenal matchup but he’s been a fantastic player so far this year. Smith scored 8.4 and 9.2 points against the Steelers and Chiefs but both are fantastic run defenses. In the first two games of the year though, Dobbins exploded for 22.9 and 20.1 points in back to back weeks. Having a floor of 8-9 points to pair with the upside to score 20 points should make Dobbins a must start RB2 regardless of matchup.
It’s not like the Broncos are such a horrible matchup for Dobbins, either. They’ve allowed the 13th least fantasy points to running backs (109.4) which is good but not unbeatable. On top of that according to BetMGM, the Chargers are three point favorites. This game script should allow them to target Dobbins close to the line of scrimmage and give him a ton of carries. Dobbins may not put up RB1 numbers but he’s much better than his RB23 projection suggests.
James Conner @ GB
ESPN Projection - RB17
This is one of the more obvious predictions on the list but my original plan was Brian Robinson. As of writing this on Thursday night, Robinson just missed practice so I didn’t think that giving advice on him would be the best play. Going back to Conner I’m a bit surprised that ESPN projects him out as the RB17.
In week six the Cardinals take on the Packers which should be fairly high scoring. BetMGM has the over/under set at 47.5 points. The Packers have also allowed the 15th most fantasy points to running backs this year (119.8) so I have no concerns on that front. In a natural to positive game script for Conner, I’m absolutely going to be starting the guy scoring 14.9 PPG this season.
Sit
Rachaad White @ NO
ESPN Projection - RB22
I didn’t want to touch on Robinson, but Rachaad White is projected out as a top 24 back according to ESPN which doesn’t seem right to me. Even taking away the injury, White has been trending in a downward direction since week one. White is coming off a 10.4 and 9.6 point performance and we’re starting him in a below average matchup this week?
The Saints have allowed the 14th least fantasy points to running backs (109.6) which is far from the cakewalk you want to see a struggling running back face. It’s not like there’s a ton of touchdown upside to go around in this game either as the over/under is set at 41.5 points per BetMGM. The actionable advice I can give from this situation is don’t be drawn in by the ESPN projection temptation even if White is healthy enough to play on Sunday.
Javonte Williams vs LAC
ESPN Projection - RB25
Javonte Williams has been trending up recently but one 16.1 point game against the Raiders isn’t enough to make the cut. The Broncos offense is still horrible as demonstrated by their 16.25 implied team total which is the 2nd worst in the NFL. This takes away any touchdown upside from Williams which is something we desperately need to see. Part of the reason Williams has struggled so badly is because he’s scored five career touchdowns.
The Chargers are three-point favorites, which indicates that the Broncos are likely to be trailing in this game, limiting the dump-offs and handoffs Williams will get. Based on what we’ve seen throughout the course of five games from Williams and the Broncos offense, I’m not ready to start him yet.
Tight End
Start
Evan Engram @ CHI
ESPN Projection - TE12
The tight-end position is such a wasteland this year, so let me say that this is my least confident start of the list. That being said, if Evan Engram finally plays, he has way more upside than anyone in this range. The Jaguars haven’t looked great this year, but recently, Trevor Lawrence has been able to heat up the offense a little bit, helping Brian Thomas Jr a ton. Christian Kirk has been pretty inconsistent throughout the year, so there’s a real shot that Engram could be the number two target right away.
The matchup isn’t very good, though, as the Bears have allowed the 8th least fantasy points to tight ends (38.2) this year. Across the board there’s not much hope in the matchup willing Engram to points but as my TE10-TE12, I’m fine taking a shot on the player that just scored 13.5 PPG last season.
Sit
Zach Ertz @ BAL
ESPN Projection - TE11
The matchup is good for Zach Ertz which is the only pushback I can see. So far the Ravens have allowed the 5th most fantasy points (69.8) to tight ends this year. If you take a deeper look though Ertz has a -16% matchup advantage on PFF’s TE Matchup Tool. I’m just not particularly keen to start a tight end that’s gone over 10 points once this year. Then again I’m not particularly keen to start any tight ends this year.
Quarterback
Start
Kyler Murray @ GB
ESPN Projection - QB13
After just scoring 24.1 points against the 49ers this projection doesn’t make sense to me at all. While Murray has struggled at times, he also has elite upside. He can be a true difference maker in your matchups because of his rushing upside and we just saw him run for 83 yards and a touchdown last week. Simply put none of the other quarterbacks around that low end QB1 range can compete with his floor/ceiling combination.
The Packers aren’t a terrible matchup either, as they’ve only allowed the 17th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (84.8) this year. On top of that, BetMGM projects this game to be one of the higher-scoring games this week, with an over/under of 47.5 points. This ESPN projection makes no sense to me and you should 100% be starting Murray this week.
Sit
Daniel Jones
ESPN Projection - QB8
Coming into the year, I was a big Daniel Jones fan for Underdog because there was always a solid chance his rushing upside could carry him. While Jones has looked fine as a passer there is no world where Josh Allen should be behind Jones for week six projections. Except on ESPN, I guess. QB8 is way too high, and realistically, based on his extremely low floor, you should have a borderline QB12-14 at best.
Malik Nabers is also still in concussion protocol, and if he doesn’t play, Jones is screwed. Nabers has made Jones look much better than he really is, and that shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. Even if Nabers does play, let’s pump the breaks a bit and leave Jones on the waiver wire unless you’re desperate.
