After a disgusting Thursday Night Football game, we’re so close to some real football. In order to help you prepare for your week seven matchups, we’re going to be going over some of the most polarizing start/sit decisions according to ESPN’s projections. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. Let’s dive right into it!
Wide Receiver
Start
Brian Thomas Jr vs NE
ESPN Projection - WR30
After having such a hot start to the year, one bad game has sent Brian Thomas Jr to WR3 status for some. Let’s not forget that even with that bad performance, Thomas is averaging 15.2 PPG. I know the argument against Thomas is that Christian Gonzalez will be covering him. In the modern NFL one on one matchups aren’t as prominent anymore and the Jaguars will move Thomas around. Gonzalez took on the Texans last week and their WR1 Steffon Diggs just scored 19.2 points.
Looking at the Patriots defense as a whole, they’ve allowed the 13th most fantasy points to wide receivers this year (213.9 points) which bodes well for Thomas. When taking a look at Fantasy Points WR Coverage Matchup Tool, Thomas ranks 14th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.52) as well. Thomas is still an elite talent with proven production so I don’t see how you can leave him out of fantasy lineups this week.
DeVonta Smith @ NYG
ESPN Projection - WR22
DeVonta Smith is being ranked as a borderline WR2 but in reality he’s a must start. In 3/4 games this season, Smith has scored more than 15 points and that one game he didn’t was 14.9 point performance. Smith is an elite talent and even with A. J. Brown back, you need to start him.
The matchup this week is pretty average going up against the Giants and it’s definitely nothing you should be scared of. This season the Giants have allowed the 18th most fantasy points to wide receivers (194.2) but that’s not really a big concern. Going back to Fantasy Points WR Coverage Matchup Tool, Smith ranks 11th in expected fantasy points per route run (0.54). Start Smith with confidence each week.
Sit
Jakobi Meyers @ LAR
ESPN Projection - WR22
The Davante Adams hype caused many people to freak out about Jakobi Meyers. Meyers may be the number one wide receiver but he’s certainly not the number one target. That title belongs to Brock Bowers. Meyers is the number two option on an offense that has an implied team total of 18.5 points this week, 5th worst in the NFL.
Looking ahead to week seven, the Rams have allowed the 8th least fantasy points to wide receivers this year (176), making this a bad matchup for Meyers. So far this season Meyers hasn’t posted a great expected fantasy points per route run score either (0.37) ranking 49th in the NFL. As much as I love Meyers, the situation is so bad that you shouldn’t being expecting too much.
Ladd McConkey @ ARI
ESPN Projection - WR27
Coming into the year a lot of people underestimate the Chargers willingness to run the ball. Greg Roman has turned Justin Herbert into a quarterback that’s barely even a top 24 fantasy quarterback this year. We’ve seen Ladd McConkey flash a few times this season scoring 14.9 and 17.7 points but in both those games he scored a touchdown. Predicting the slot receiver on a team with an implied team total of 23 points (14th) isn’t always the best bet.
When McConkey doesn’t score he’s yet to go over nine fantasy points this year. The matchup as a whole is pretty solid though as the Cardinals have allowed the 9th most fantasy points (223.5) this season. Taking a look at PFF’s WR/CB tool, McConkey has an “average” matchup with a score of 64.7. Even if McConkey has his best game yet without scoring a touchdown, you’re more than likely looking at 9-10 points.
Running Back
Start
Jordan Mason vs KC
ESPN Projection - RB23
If Jordan Mason plays this week, I highly doubt you have better options on your bench. Despite only playing half of week six, Mason is still aeverging 15.4 PPG on the year. Playing in the 49ers offensive scheme gives Mason the upside to easily score 20 points every week.
The matchup isn’t good as the 49ers take on the Chiefs but you’re also not expecting Mason to be an RB1 like in previous weeks. The counter argument is that the Chiefs have allowed the least fantasy points to running backs (71.9 points), but the 49ers are also an elite offense. Taking a look at the implied team totals for the week, the 49ers are 8th with 24.5 points giving Mason a ton of touchdown upside.
David Montgomery @ MIN
ESPN Projection - RB27
Having David Montgomery projected out as the RB27 makes no sense at all. Not surprisingly Montgomery is projected behind Jahmyr Gibbs but what is surprising is that he’s behind 26 other backs despite scoring 18.1 PPG. For context I have Montgomery as my RB9 on the week, ahead of Gibbs and that might be a bit low.
I fully understand that the Vikings have allowed the 2nd least fantasy points to running backs this year (80.9). Again, I’m not ranking Montgomery as a top five back even though he easily could be most weeks. Even if you disagree with my RB9 rankings, having him outside the top 24 is absolutely ridiculous.
Sit
Trey Sermon vs MIA
ESPN Projection - RB25
We just received news this week that Jonathan Taylor won’t be active on Sunday. The range of outcomes is very wide for Sermon as in the two games he’s had over 10 carries, he scored 18.3 and 2.9 points. Unfortunately based on his poor efficiency and the game that Tyler Goodson had, I’m betting against Sermon.
In the last two games, Sermon has carried the ball 28 times with a YPC mark of 2.7. Simply put, that kind of efficiency isn’t going to be enough unless you’re in a super high scoring offense like the 49ers. The Colts are projected out with the 13th highest implied team total (23.25) but I feel like this is too high with Anthony Richardson coming back.
Tight End
Start
Sam LaPorta @ MIN
ESPN Projection - TE15
Having Sam LaPorta as my start of the week says more about the other tight ends than LaPorta. Despite scoring 12.2 points last week, all that really showed me is that LaPorta still is a very explosive tight end if he’s targeted deep down the field. Other than that, he had one catch on one target. Who else are you really going to play though?
LaPorta has an above average matchup, taking on the vikings who have allowed the 13th most fantasy points (66.5 points) to tight ends this year. Not only that but when you look at PFF’s TE Matchup tool, LaPorta has a 24% advantage this week, which is one of the top scores for week seven. I don’t like it anymore than you but I still believe LaPorta is a better option than someone you’re able to get off the wavier wire.
Sit
Hunter Henry @ JAC
ESPN Projection - TE14
At this point in the season I don’t have any super strong takes on who to sit, but I don’t love playing Hunter Henry. Despite the emergence of Maye, Demario Douglas is still the clear number one. FanDuel who makes the odds for these week seven implied team totals also has the Patriots 27th on the week with 18 points. While I wouldn’t be shocked if Maye goes nuts again, there’s still a lot of risk.
It's not like this game is a great matchup either as the Patriots have allowed the 16th most fantasy points to tight ends this year (60.1). Taking a look at the PFF’s TE Matchup tool, Henry has a -2% matchup score which is pretty bad. I wouldn’t be shocked if Henry is the TE12 this week, but I’d still rather play a guy like LaPorta.
Quarterback
Start
C.J. Stroud @ GB
ESPN Projection - QB15
I wasn’t super high on C.J. Stroud coming into the year but he’s still one of the better passing quarterbacks in the NFL. Even without Nico Collins, Stroud is still in a great spot as he has Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell at his disposal. Stroud is averaging 16.8 PPG this season and is comfortably a back end QB1 most weeks.
Looking ahead to week seven the Packers are a fairly average matchup for Stroud. They’ve allowed the 14th least fantasy points to quarterbacks (97.7) this season but the game also has an over/under of 47.5 points (FanDuel). Facing off against Jordan Love, I could easily see this turning into a shootout, where Stroud will thrive. Even though I don’t see Stroud as a player with top five upside this week, there’s no other quarterback in the QB10-12 range that I would take over Stroud.
Sit
Anthony Richardson vs MIA
ESPN Projection - QB10
If Anthony Richardson plays this week, I’m not starting him in my fantasy lineup. I’m the biggest fan of rushing upside and yet Richardson is so bad it doesn’t matter. Outside of week one, Richardson hasn’t scored more than 10 points in his last three games. It’s not just bad luck either, in two of those three games Richardson had a QBR under 42.
It’s not like this is a good matchup for Richardson either facing off against the Dolphins. In fact statistically it’s the worst possible matchup as the Dolphins have allowed the least fantasy points to quarterbacks this season (45.5). Richardson has been awful recently and against a tough Dolphins defense there’s no way I’m starting him this week.