After each week I’ll be looking at some of the most significant movers in Dynasty value. Dynasty fantasy football is about playing the long game, but weekly performances and factors such as injuries, scheme changes, etc. can have some very drastic impacts on the Dynasty values of players.
I’ll give you some context to ensure you can jump on the risers before they hit their peak and the fallers before they hit their floor. Generic “Buy Low, Sell High” type analysis misses a lot of the underlying context that’s valuable to fantasy managers. Sometimes that big performance is a time to buy as the player is rising, and sometimes that dud of a game is a time to sell as the player starts their descent to fantasy irrelevance.
This week, we’re keeping things positive with all buy candidates! All values are based on Keep Trade Cut valuations. Although every league is different, KTC provides a good generalization of how fantasy managers value players.
Risers
Evan Engram – TE
Jacksonville Jaguars (Buy)
Engram has been a very slight riser over the past few weeks, from TE16 earlier in the month to TE14 now. His role in the tight-end landscape has been fairly quiet this year due to an injury that kept him out 4 weeks early in the season. Since returning from the injury, Engram has put up 11+ points in 2 out of 3 weeks.
The reason I consider him a very easy-buy candidate, especially for contenders, is that Christian Kirk is now injured and out for the season. Engram and Kirk operate in very similar parts of the field and can severely limit each other’s upside. Last year, we saw what Engram could do without Kirk in the lineup. Engram was a top 10 tight end in 5 of the 6 weeks that Kirk missed to close the season. In that same six-game stretch, Engram was a top 3 tight end 3 times.
Despite a fairly pedestrian first 11 weeks of the season last year when Engram never had a weekly finish above TE7, that 6-game stretch without Kirk catapulted Engram to a TE2 finish on the season. This season, he’ll have nine games without Kirk.
Engram is currently valued behind Travis Kelce. Engram may very well match Kelce’s output for the rest of this season and offer significantly more longevity than Kelce. Engram is valued between a mid-2025 2nd and a late 2025 2nd. That’s completely reasonable value for a tight end that could push contenders to a championship down the stretch of their season and provide some value into the future.
Justin Herbert – QB
LA Chargers (Buy)
While Herbert’s KTC value has increased since his big Week 8 performance, it hasn’t translated into a change in his QB rank. Herbert is currently valued as the QB13.
This time, a year ago, Herbert was the QB5. The drop in his value was mostly out of his control. The new coaching staff for the Chargers is known for their running game and lower passing volumes, lowering Herbert’s value. That certainly is how things played out earlier in the season, as prior to the Chargers’ Bye week, Herbert was only attempting 22.75 passing attempts per game. This was also a period where he was dealing with a lingering foot injury that could have played a role in the Chargers’ low passing volume.
Whether it’s due to Herbert’s improved health, an expansion of the playbook, or development of the young receiving corps for the Chargers, following the Bye week the passing volume for Herbert has increased to 35 passing attempts per game. Even if 35 attempts per game isn’t maintained, which would tie the Chargers for 8th in the league in passing volume, I don’t see why the passing attempts would ever get close to the early season lows we saw.
Herbert is a great quarterback, that hasn’t changed. With the Chargers’ passing attack now expanding, Ladd McConkey breaking out as a top receiver, and a competent and experienced coaching staff leading the team now is the time to buy Herbert.
Herbert’s value is below Drake Maye at this point. I know people are excited for what Maye can do, but it’s a fairly rosy projection to say Maye will be as good as Herbert. Maye also features in a much worse offence, with a much less-proven coaching staff.
Herbert is also valued just ahead of a mid-2025 1st. There’s no quarterback in this draft who is as good as Herbert. If you’re in the market for a quarterback long-term, any pick after the 1.02 should be a very easy sell for Herbert. Even the 1.01/1.02 would be an even trade if you have a real need at quarterback.
Fallers
Anthony Richardson – QB
Indianapolis Colts (Buy)
Richardson is down from QB16 to QB23 after getting benched. As more news comes out on his benching, he may settle in even below that. It’s obviously a big hit to Richardson’s value this season, but I think his value long-term hasn’t fallen nearly as much as people seem to think.
Richardson is one of the youngest QBs in the league still. He’s younger than rookies Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Michael Penix. He didn’t start a lot of games in college and was expected to be a raw prospect entering the league.
Joe Flacco obviously isn’t the long-term solution for the Colts. While he provides a higher floor for the team this season and could push them into a Wild Card playoff berth, the Colts need Richardson to develop if they want to make a Super Bowl run. Richardson can now learn behind a respected veteran, something the team likely should have done right after drafting him.
Once Richardson reclaims the starting role, which he will, he’ll jump right back into fantasy relevance with his rushing ability and hopefully will have improved his passing enough to be a more consistent passer as well. I don’t expect this to be until next year, so my “Buy” recommendation is mostly for teams that are rebuilding.
Richardson’s play has faced a lot of scrutiny, and rightfully so with his poor completion percentage. When watching the film on Richardson though, it is clear that he is not a hopeless prospect. He’s a great deep ball thrower, he evades pressure effectively, and he’s obviously a tremendous athlete. All of the traits that led people to believe he could be the top fantasy passer this season are still there.
Richardson’s value is now below an early 2025 2nd round pick. This is a rare opportunity to acquire a player who has the potential to be the QB1 in all of fantasy football. This is not a strong quarterback draft class, so if you are rebuilding and need a high-upside young quarterback, Richardson is a much better value for an early 2nd rounder than anyone that will be available with that pick.
Rome Odunze – WR
Chicago Bears (Buy)
Odunze was valued as the WR12 to close out September but is now down to WR18. While other rookie wide receivers like Brian Thomas and Ladd McConkey are breaking out as top options in their offenses, Odunze continues to put up pedestrian fantasy numbers.
This shouldn’t be surprising. It was always expected to be a slow start to the career for Odunze. He has a rookie quarterback, an ineffective playcaller, and is playing alongside two very good veteran receivers. Odunze’s slow start isn’t due to a lack of talent or difficulty acclimating to the NFL.
He’s shown flashes of being an elite receiver, but this entire passing offense has been abysmal for the most part. Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron hasn’t shown any willingness to adapt to what Caleb Williams does best or the plays best suited to his other skill position players. He hasn’t been able to call plays that alleviate pressure from the struggling offensive line.
It’s not just Odunze. We know what DJ Moore can do in the NFL, yet he’s struggled to put together consistent performances this year as well. Even Keenan Allen, who has been a target monster throughout his career, hasn’t seen much action in this Bears offense.
The future is still bright. Williams has shown some great flashes, particularly when he’s able to play with pace. It’s likely this coaching staff will be cleared out following the season, and the depth of untapped offensive talent will attract the next generation of offensive-minded coaches to Chicago.
Odunze is currently valued just ahead of a mid-2025 1st round pick. I’d consider Odunze to be just as valuable, if not more so, than the top receiver in the 2025 draft class. Any pick outside of the top 3 is a no-brainer sell for Odunze to me.