Once again we’re just hours away from Sunday kickoff which means we all need to submit starting lineups. In order to help you prepare for your week 10 matchups, we’re going to be going over some of the most polarizing start/sit decisions according to ESPN’s projections. The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. Let’s go win the week!
Wide Receiver
Start
DeVonta Smith @ DAL
ESPN Projection - WR23
It was announced that A. J. Brown will officially be suiting up for week 10, which is why DeVonta Smith has dropped all the way down to being ranked as a borderline WR2 by ESPN. Even when Brown was on the field with Smith in weeks one and six, Smith had two great games. Brown was still dominant scoring 22.9 and 23.6 points but Smith had 15.4 points in both of those games.
Looking ahead to week 10, Smith also has a fantastic matchup according to PFF’s WR/CB tool. Smith has an “excellent” matchup score of 86 which is the 8th highest among all receivers. The Cowboys have been just above average against wide receivers, allowing the 12th least fantasy points (266.9 per Fantasy Data) but this isn’t a big enough deal to make me bench Smith. Smith is one of the most talented receivers in the NFL and I’m confidently starting him in my WR2 slot this week.
Sit
Khalil Shakir @ IND
ESPN Projection - WR24
Despite drawing seven targets in week nine, Khalil Shakir has no business being ranked as a low end WR2. The only factor that could change this take is if Amari Cooper misses week 10 with his wrist injury. Last week even without Cooper, Shakir had the third most routes run in the wide receiver room with 25. Keon Coleman and Mack Hollins both ran five more routes than Shakir which is a discouraging sign.
Shakir gets to play the Colts secondary which looks like a great matchup on the surface as they're allowed the 9th most fantasy points (323.2 per Fantasy Data) to wide receivers. If you look a little deeper, PFF’s WR/CB tool gives this a “below average” matchup with a grade of 40.2. Even with Cooper banged up, he’s clearly the most talented receiver on the team so don’t be shocked if this is the week he takes over.
Running Back
Start
Kareem Hunt vs DEN
ESPN Projection - RB24
Out of this entire list, Kareem Hunt is the player that I feel the most confident in. RB24 is laughably low for a player that’s coming off a 18.7 point performance and is averaging 16.4 PPG on the year. The matchup is above average for Hunt as he takes on the Broncos who have allowed the 12th most fantasy points to running backs this year (218.3 per Fantasy Data).
Despite suffering a small injury last week, Patrick Mahomes looks all ready to go for week 10. With that being the case, FanDuel has the Chiefs with an implied team total of 24.75 points which is the 9th highest for the week. As long as Isiah Pacheco is out, you need to be starting Hunt.
Sit
Najee Harris @ WAS
ESPN Projection - RB20
No one is really talking about Najee Harris but he’s having a solid 12.9 PPG, RB2 type of season. I’m fine with starting Harris in great matchups but the Commanders pose a fairly tough challenge for him. This season the Commanders have allowed the 14th least fantasy points to running backs 200.6 per Fantasy Data) which isn’t crushing but it’s not great either.
More importantly though, we’ve only seen two games this season where Harris has scored 10.5 points without a touchdown. FanDuel has the Steelers projected for the 7th least points in the NFL with an implied team total of 21.5. Just like most running backs, Harris needs an efficient offense to help him out and that’s something I don’t see him getting in week 10.
Quarterback
Start
Patrick Mahomes vs DEN
ESPN Projection - QB23
It’s wild to think that Patrick Mahomes is being projected as the QB23 by week 10. Even though Mahomes was very disappointing to start off the season, he’s really turned it on over the past two weeks. After Rashee Rice went down early in the year, the team struggled to find a replacement until DeAndre Hopkins was traded. In the last two weeks, Mahomes has been much better scoring 18.18 and 24.54 points.
The Broncos have played quarterbacks fairly well this year allowing the 6th least fantasy points (130.6 per Fantasy Data). That said I’m not projecting Mahomes to be a top five guy this week but he should at the very least be a low end QB1. Betting against Patrick Mahomes has never gone well for anyone, and I’m not looking to join the losing side.
Sit
Tua Tagovailoa @ LAR
ESPN Projection - QB14
After suffering yet another concussion, Tua Tagovailoa has had a rough year averaging 14.1 PPG. In his last two games back he’s scored 14.7 and 17.5 points but I’m worried about his supporting cast. Tagovailoa doesn’t have any rushing upside so he needs to have these big play weeks throwing the ball to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
With Hill, he’s been good catching 10 passes for 152 yards in the last two weeks but it’s a far cry from his 2023 campaign where he had 12.5 receiving yards per game. Waddle has been just awful this year and he caught six passes for 41 yards in the last two weeks. Without his playmakers stepping up, I’m not looking to start Tagovailoa anytime soon.
Tight end
Start
Taysom Hill vs ATL
ESPN Projection - TE16
The tight end landscape has been horrible this entire season and week 10 is no different. With four teams on bye, the position is more scarce than ever. For context right now Taysom Hill is now averaging 8.6 PPG which is more than Sam LaPorta and Mark Andrews. Hill is a complete mystery every week, but he’s coming off a great 16 point performance and with the firing of Dennis Allen, the team should see a slight boost.
With Hill, he’s simply a dart throw who has more upside than any other low end TE1. With how bad this week is, I’d simply rather take an upside shot because I’m not confident in the floor of most of these players anyways.
Sit
Hunter Henry @ CHI
ESPN Projection - TE9
With Drake Maye returning many have bumped Hunter Henry into the top 10 for tight ends. Even though Maye has looked great because of his rushing ability, we’ve only seen him throw for over 250 yards once this season. The Bears have a great defense as well which should make Maye uncomfortable at the least.
On top of all that, the Bears have also allowed the 15th least fantasy points to tight ends (98.3 per Fantasy Data) which isn’t amazing but it’s not a great matchup for Henry either. Lastly when taking a look at PFF’s TE Matchup tool, Henry has a -7% matchup advantage. I would rather play Hill than Henry this week which might be a hot take.