We’ve made it. It’s officially the last game of the regular season before the fantasy playoffs start. Odds are, if you’re reading this, you need a win this week to get into the playoffs or lock up a bye. In order to help you prepare, we’re going to be going over some of the most polarizing start/sit decisions according to ESPN’s projections.
The players that will be eligible for this list are all close to being ranked as a back-end QB1/TE1 or WR2/RB2 based on ESPN’s PPR projections. With that being said, let’s take a look at the biggest Biggest Start’ Em Sit’ Em decisions for week 12. That being said, let’s dive right into the top sit/starts for week 14 of the fantasy football season!
Wide Receiver
Start
Marvin Harrison Jr vs SEA
ESPN Projection - WR28
Entering the year, Marvin Harrison Jr was a locked and loaded starter with how high he was drafted. Despite being drafted as the WR9, Harrison is averaging 11.8 PPG on the year and it’s been tough to consistently start him this year. With that being said, Harrison is coming off his bye week, and we’ve seen him score 7.7 and 17 points in the last two games.
What stands out to me, though, is that he had a season-high 12 targets in week 13. Harrison also has an above matchup going up against the Seahawks. The Seahawks have allowed the 17th most points to wide receivers this year (398.8), but PFF’s WR/CB Tool gives him a “good” matchup advantage score of 79.6. Even though it’s been tough to trust Harrison this year, I’m plugging him in my flex spot at the very least.
Sit
Deebo Samuel vs CHI
ESPN Projection - WR26
As a Deebo Samuel owner, I’ve already had him on my bench for the past week but ESPN still has him close to a low end WR2. In reality Samuel should be viewed as a mid end WR3 at best going forward. Samuel has been banged up this season dealing with pneumonia, a calf and wrist injury. Sadly if that’s what has caused this downfall we’ve seen no signs of this free fall stopping.
In weeks 11-13, Samuel has yet to score over seven points. The targets haven’t been there either, averaging 5.3 targets per game during that span. If you take Samuel’s name out of the equation, there’s no way you’re starting a wide receiver who’s averaging 9.9 PPG on the year with those most recent splits. Samuel needs to prove himself before he touches fantasy football starting lineups again.
Running Back
Start
Isaac Guerendo vs CHI
ESPN Projection - RB22
With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason heading to the IR, Isaac Guerendo has a chance to be a league winner. I’ve been an extremely big fan of Guerendo since the NFL draft due to his explosiveness. We’ve seen a small sample size of production already as Guerendo has scored 9.9 and 19.9 points in both games he’s had more than 10 carries. Here’s a full film breakdown that talks about Guerendo a bit more as a player.
Admittingly the Bears have a tough run defense allowing the 4th least fantasy points to running backs (344.4 points) this year. It’s important to take into account that with so many byes, players are going to be pushed up rankings. Even with Trent Williams out yet again, PFF still ranked the 49ers offensive line 11th last week, giving me some more confidence in Guerendo.
Sit
Travis Etienne @ TEN
ESPN Projection - RB19
At this point in the year, I’m not sure why Travis Etienne is being projected as a top 24 back. If you have any optimism about Etienne, please shut it down. Etienne is almost the exact same case as Samuel in the sense that if you remove his name, you’re not starting him. Etienne is averaging 8.3 PPG on the year and he hasn’t scored more than nine points since week five.
It’s not like the Titans are a great matchup for Etienne either, as they’ve allowed the 12th least fantasy points (273.8) to running backs this year. If you needed another reason to bench Etienne, Tank Bigsby will be back from injury for the 2nd game in a row this week. Stay clear of Etienne at all costs.
Tight end
Start
Cade Otton vs LV
ESPN Projection - TE12
With Mike Evans returning in week 12, Cade Otton has been underwhelming, scoring only four and six points in his last two games. With that said, Otton showed signs of encouragement last week by drawing seven targets despite only catching four of them. Otton is also a fairly talented tight end, averaging 10.5 PPG on the year.
The reason for starting Otton is due to his fantastic week 14 matchup against the Raiders. This season, the Raiders have been awful against tight ends, allowing the 2nd most fantasy points (202.3). If you take a look at PFF’s TE Matchup tool as well, they give him a 20% advantage score this week. All signs are pointing to a big week for Otton.
Sit
Dalton Kincaid @ LAR
ESPN Projection - TE11
With Dalton Kincaid he’s currently listed as questionable but assuming he’s healthy, I’m still not starting him. For one we haven’t seen Kincaid since week 10 and you have to assume that he’s not going to be 100% this week even if he does play. On top of that Kincaid has simply been disappointing this year, averaging 8.2 PPG and only scoring more than 10 points three times.
Even before Kincaid was injured he struggled only scoring 7.2 and 4.4 points in weeks 9-10. Kincaid is going up against the Rams who have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to tight ends (163.4) this year. While the Rams aren’t a horrible matchup, it’s not enough to make up for all these other concerns.
Quarterback
Start
Caleb Williams @ SF
ESPN Projection - QB15
If you’re in need of a streamer at the quarterback position, I love Caleb Williams even in a tough matchup. While the 49ers have allowed the 6th least fantasy points to quarterbacks (199.4) Williams has a lot going for him. Over the last three weeks, Williams has been fantastic scoring 16.2, 26.9 and 26.1 points.
With a rookie quarterback you expect their best weeks of football to be played at the end of the season. Williams has looked impressive as of late and you have to assume the Bears will be giving him as many reps as possible. With the Bears out of the playoff hunt, we’ve seen Williams throw 47 (overtime) and 39 times in the last two weeks. In a game where the Bears are 3.5 underdogs according to FanDuel, this trend should continue.
Sit
Matthew Stafford vs BUF
ESPN Projection - QB13
Matthew Stafford has been performing fairly well recently scoring 27.8, 19.2 and 15.6 points in his last two games. I expect that to take a turn in week 14 though as the Bills are an extremely tough matchup. This season the Bills have shut down opposing quarterbacks, allowing the 4th least fantasy points (176.4).
The other issue with Stafford is that he has no rushing upside at all. In fact on the year he only has 11 rushing yards. With these fringe QB1’s, I’m looking to take a shot on a player with upside. Not only does this lack of rushing ability take away from Stafford’s upside but it also keeps his floor low. In a rough matchup, I’m not willing to take the risk with Stafford.