The leading name for Sixth Man of the Year currently, Payton Pritchard has been a divisive name thus far amongst fantasy managers, with many alternating between labeling him fool’s gold or this year’s Jalen Johnson off the wire. The reality remains a bit more nuanced, as Pritchard has long been a candidate capable of putting together amazing lines when given the opportunity.

While there is little to expect from Pritchard should the Boston Celtics field a full-strength lineup, he has proven countless times thus far that he can step up to eat the usage left behind in the absence of any key players in the lineup. No week better highlights the duality of Pritchard more than the one we just saw, with both extremes of his potential role being on full display. 

A Sniper From Deep 

Pritchard himself will bring a ton of value to your fantasy team purely off of the volume of his three-point shooting alone. He has basically doubled his 3PA from last season to this one, taking a career-high 8.5 three’sa night. Over the last week, this number has jumped up to 9.3 attempts per game, which would have him ranked inside the top 10 for the league on the season thus far. This is an incredible feat for a bench player, as no other player off the bench even cracks the top 30 for that particular metric.

Combine his massive output from deep with his career-high 42% from three on the season thus far, and Pritchard has cemented himself as a top 10 three-point producer on a per-game basis for fantasy managers. Furthermore, Pritchard is proving that he can still generate elite value in the category even should his shot not fall at the rate expected of him. This past week has actually been one of the worst for Pritchard thus far, and yet he has still managed to nab himself a Z-Score of .96 in the category off of the back of his 9.3 attempts on 35% shooting from behind the arc.

All of this points to the fact that even should you not believe in the ability of Pritchard to maintain his blistering form starting the season, he can still be a highly rosterable specialist in the category, as his sky-high attempts indicate that should the volume remain, so will his value. 

The Perfect Role Player

Pritchard has always been complimented as a high-IQ basketball player, capable of knowing his role in the flow of the offense and not forcing anything that is not readily available to him. These types of players often have a high correlation to having a respectable field goal percentage, and Pritchard is no exception. The Boston offense prioritizes a high volume of three-point attempts and easy plays around the basket that are highly replicable regardless of who is on the court.

This has led Pritchard to remain a player who is capable of providing positive value across the percentage categories, as one who is capable of making the shots given to him in the flow of the offense. His high-scoring numbers can confuse people into thinking that he is a dynamic isolation scorer. However, a staggering 81% of his 3PM are assisted by his teammates. Further, 63% of his total FGM are assisted as well, implying that he is most often the benefactor of a good system rather than the defining factor.

I actually believe this is a positive outcome for Pritchard, as it indicates that his boosts in percentages across the board are likely not due to him just randomly getting hot and are instead coming from a sustainable shot diet of open looks from three and shots at the rim. With career bests this season coming in the form of his 48% from the field and a two-point percentage of 68%, Pritchard is proving that the system offense of the Celtics will help overturn any concerns about his small size limiting him solely to life as a spot up shooter on the outside. 

The Limits 

Although Pritchard is having the season of his life so far, it is important to address the very real limitations faced by the guard. He has been vastly buoyed by the absences plaguing the Celtics starting five this season, allowing him to get extended runs of playtime that would normally be granted to the starting unit. However, should the entire backcourt unit be healthy, there is a very real risk that Pritchard will get the short end of the stick in terms of usage.

He received a season-low usage rate of 5.9% against the Bucks this Friday, and while he is by no means going to hover at that level for the duration of the season, it is fairly clear who the offense is going to prioritize when everyone is available. The small guard also struggles to create counting stats outside of his gaudy scoring numbers. He has been a bottom-of-the-barrel rebounder for the entirety of his career, averaging a woeful career-high of 3.3 rebounds a night. Furthermore, despite being listed as a point guard, he primarily remains a play-finisher for Boston, with an average of 2.9 assists per game.

This seems to be a lineup-proof reality for the most part, as he has only gotten five or more assists a single time this season, grabbing eight in a blowout win against the Brooklyn Nets, where he received a staggering 36 minutes. 

Verdict

That being said, I still believe that Pritchard remains an invaluable member in any format with twelve teams or more. His ability to score from deep with consistency is completely unmatched by his peers on the waiver wire, and the fears about his usage off the bench likely amount to little. Boston has proven time and again that they are not wary about alternating rest days for their key players whenever possible, and given the incredible durability possessed by Pritchard (he played all 82 games last season), he should remain a consistently available option for this Celtics roster.

While it is deeply unlikely that his role will ever increase over the course of this season, even just maintaining 75% of his current output is enough to label him a waiver wire success. As with any high-volume shooting threat, there will be the occasional night when he cannot buy a bucket for his life. However, those should be a bit few and far between and should not be viewed as a permanent black mark against his fantasy profile. Do not let this man sit on the waiver wire should you have the opportunity to pick him up. The upside he has for your scoring categories makes him a high-value end of bench specialist at the absolute worst case. 

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