Weird stuff happens. Chuba Hubbard has been my guy all season - I was all in on him in the pre-season, but recently I’ve been down on him. He was playing against an elite defense, he had split carries the week before with Jonathon Brooks, and Brooks had taken the high-value touches (passing game and goal line). Hubbard also looked worn down from the season. So, in a crucial game—where a win meant a first-round bye—I decided to sit him for DeVonta Smith, who tends to perform well when Dallas Goedert is out.

What happened? Jonathon Brooks went down early in the game, and suddenly, Chuba Hubbard returned to being a workhorse. I still won, so don’t cry for me, but it could have been costly.

The process was correct: identifying patterns, evaluating matchups, and making the best-informed decision. Even with all that, this one decision turned out to be wrong. It’s like choosing a three-pointer over a mid-range jumper in basketball: you might miss the three and make the mid-range, but over the course of a season, the three-pointer will lead to more wins.

So, don’t beat yourself up if you started Saquon Barkley over Tyrone Tracy or if you benched Jordan Addison for Garrett Wilson. You used the right process to make the right call, but it didn’t quite work out this time.

These Rankings Are Tailored for a 10-Person PPR League

Specific rosters, league size, and weekly matchups all play a role in lineup decisions. For example, in a 6-person PPR league, a player like Rhamondre Stevenson might not be a must-start. In a 14-person superflex league, you better believe I’m starting Cooper Rush every week.

Since it’s the playoffs, you need to win! If you’re a lower seed playing a juggernaut, or if you started players on Thursday (such as Stafford, Kupp, or Purdy) who disappointed, then you should pivot to more boom/bust players rather than safe options.

Label Definitions

Must Starts: You should absolutely start these players.

Matchup Upgrade: Players recommended for starting but not over "must starts" These are borderline starters with favorable matchups, positive game scripts, or recent strong performances. Occasionally a player has a matchup so good, or he has been playing so well, he becomes a “Must Start” and I use this label to explain why.

Grounds for Concern: Players with negative matchups, poor game scripts, or recent struggles. A Must Start player can also fall into this category.

Washington Commanders Vs. New Orleans Saints

Must Starts:

Commanders: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr, Terry McLaurin

Saints: Alvin Kamara

Matchup Upgrade:

Commanders Defense: While I don’t typically put defenses in the "Must Start" category, this one comes close. The Saints barely managed 14 points and 292 total yards with their starting QB against the Giants. Now, with Derek Carr out for the season, the Saints’ offense becomes an ideal target for streaming defenses.

In three games without Carr, the Saints' offense has scored just three touchdowns. It’s been painful to watch. The Commanders also have the advantage of two weeks to prepare for a Saints team missing most of its key weapons. They are a top-tier streaming defense this week.

Grounds for Concern:

Zach Ertz (Commanders): The matchup and likely game script are working against Ertz this week. The Saints rank 11th against TEs, and with the Commanders expected to lead comfortably, Ertz may not be heavily utilized.

Though Ertz has scored in his last three games, boosting his fantasy value, his production without touchdowns has been underwhelming—he’s scored under 10 points in 8 of the 10 games where he didn’t find the end zone. He’s a touchdown-dependent TE2, and I’d pass on him this week if you have other options.

Kansas City Chiefs Vs. Cleveland Browns

Must Starts:

Chiefs: Travis Kelce

Browns: Jerry Jeudy

Matchup Upgrade:

Jameis Winston (Browns): Winston is averaging over 40 pass attempts per game in his last six outings. The Chiefs rank 23rd against QBs this season and have struggled defensively in recent games, allowing high yardage per attempt.

While Winston is a boom/bust option, he’s had two games over 26 points and two under 16 during this stretch. With the playoffs on the line, you’re playing to win, and Winston’s upside makes him worth starting over safer, lower-ceiling options.

The Chiefs have faced relatively easy QB competition recently (e.g., Bryce Young, Aidan O’Connell, Derek Carr, an injured Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins) yet remain vulnerable, ranking in the bottom 10 in yards per attempt over the last three weeks.

Grounds for Concern:

Kareem Hunt (Chiefs): Hunt was an excellent fill-in for Pacheco earlier in the season, averaging 16.8 points per game and ranking as RB12 from Weeks 4-10. However, it’s now clearly Pacheco’s backfield.

Last week, Pacheco handled 14 carries and 4 targets while the rest of the RBs combined for only 6 carries and 3 targets. Hunt’s role is now limited, making him irrelevant even as a desperation flex in deep leagues.

Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Tennessee Titans

Must Starts:

Bengals: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Titans: Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley

Matchup Upgrade

Bengals Defense/Special Teams (D/ST): While the Bengals’ defense isn’t elite, it has performed well against mediocre offenses, scoring 7+ fantasy points against teams like Dallas, Las Vegas, Cleveland, and the Giants.

The Titans, who are turnover-prone and struggle offensively, fit this mold perfectly. Against stronger offenses, the Bengals' D/ST has struggled (e.g., negative points against the Chargers, Ravens, and Eagles). But this week’s matchup is favorable, making them a top-7 streaming option.

Grounds for Concern:

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Titans): After a breakout Week 11 with 117 yards and a touchdown on just two catches, Westbrook-Ikhine has cooled off significantly.

Last week, he managed just one catch for 19 yards on two targets in a miserable offensive showing by the Titans. Even in a decent matchup, his production is too volatile and unreliable for fantasy playoffs. He’s impossible to trust with so much on the line.

Miami Dolphins vs. Houston Texans

Must Starts:

Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith

Texans: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins

Matchup Upgrade:

Tua Tagovailoa: He’s been throwing the ball a ton over the last month, with at least 36 pass attempts, 288 yards, and 2 touchdowns in each of the last four games. He’s also been highly efficient, completing over 70% of his passes since returning from injury.

Houston has allowed the most passing touchdowns this year, though only Sam Darnold and Anthony Richardson have scored more than 23 fantasy points against them. Despite this, Tua has a surprisingly low 15.9-point projection on ESPN. With the way he and the offense are performing, I believe he’s closer to 20 points than 16. He’s a must-start for me.

Grounds for Concern:

Tank Dell: The second-year breakout for Dell just hasn’t materialized. He’s underperforming compared to his rookie year, with fewer receiving yards and touchdowns despite playing one more game. His ceiling is limited—he’s surpassed 15 points only twice this season—and his floor is even worse, with four straight games under 11 points. Against the Dolphins, who rank 4th against WRs, Dell is a clear bench candidate.

Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Giants

Must Starts:

Ravens: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers

Giants: Tyrone Tracy Jr, Malik Nabers

Matchup Upgrade:

Ravens Defense: Although they rank 26th on the season, this is a dream matchup. The Giants have been a disaster offensively, giving up 12 sacks and committing 4 turnovers in their last three games. The Ravens have faced tough recent opponents (Broncos, Steelers, Chargers, Eagles) and still managed decent scores (9, -1, 6, 6, 4).

In comparison, the Saints scored 9 points last week, Dallas scored 18 the week prior, and Tampa Bay managed 11 against the Giants. The Ravens defense is a top-7 play this week against an offense that struggles to move the ball and protect its quarterback.

Grounds for Concern:

Tyrone Tracy Jr: The good news? He played a season-high 84% of snaps on Sunday, with 16 carries and 10 targets, producing 19.3 points in an otherwise forgettable game. He’s clearly the lead back.

The bad news? The Ravens are likely to dominate, which could limit Tracy’s carries, and they allow the lowest yards per carry (YPC) in the league. His only hope is to replicate last week’s target share and find the end zone again. Without that, his production may disappoint.

New York Jets vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Must Starts:

Jets: Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson

Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr

Matchup Upgrade:

Aaron Rodgers: Rodgers had his best game of the season against the Dolphins, throwing for 339 yards and a touchdown for 17.56 points. He now has 16+ points in two of his last three games.

This week, he faces the Jaguars, who rank 31st against QBs. Even though Jacksonville managed to stop Will Levis last week, this is still a smash matchup. Rodgers should be a key part of the Jets’ effort to redeem their disappointing season. I’d start him over Jordan Love without hesitation.

Grounds for Concern:

Jaguars Running Backs: Tank Bigsby is clearly the better back and saw 18 carries for 55 yards and a touchdown last week. However, he isn’t being used in the passing game, making him highly touchdown-dependent.

Meanwhile, Travis Etienne had 4 catches for 50 yards, scoring 9 PPR points, but he’s no longer the goal-line back. This was his first game above 10 points since Week 5. Against the Jets’ #11-ranked defense against RBs, neither back inspires confidence.

If forced to choose, Bigsby’s volume and touchdown opportunities give him a slight edge, but ideally, I’d avoid both in a playoff matchup.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Carolina Panthers

Must Starts:

Cowboys: Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb

Panthers: Chuba Hubbard, Adam Thielen

Matchup Upgrade:

Adam Thielen: Thielen moves into must-start territory after his surprising rise over the past two weeks. He was very pedestrian in the first three weeks before his injury but has come back on fire. In the last two games, he has posted back-to-back monster performances with 21 targets, 17 catches, and 201 yards.

This week, he faces the Cowboys, who rank 23rd against WRs. With the expectation of a close game, Thielen should see plenty of opportunities to stay involved in the game plan for the Panthers.

Grounds for Concern:

Dallas Defense: Early in the season, streaming defenses against the Panthers was a no-brainer, but not anymore. The Eagles scored only 4 points last week, and the Chiefs and Bucs managed just 2 points each.

While the Dallas defense has looked better recently, they’re still without DeMarvion Overshown, and the Panthers’ offense has minimized mistakes. I would look elsewhere for a defense to stream this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Must Starts:

Buccaneers: Mike Evans

Chargers: Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey

Matchup Upgrade:

Quentin Johnston: Johnston tied his season high with 5 catches last week against the Chiefs, turning them into 48 yards and a touchdown. With McConkey potentially limited, Johnston, who has already secured 7 touchdown catches this year, could see a boost in usage.

This is a fantastic matchup, as Tampa Bay ranks 25th against WRs and just got shredded by the Panthers. Johnston is risky—he’s had 3 games over 15 points but 4 games under 6 points—but he’s worth considering as a high-upside flex.

Grounds for Concern:

Bucky Irving: Listed as a game-time decision, Irving played only 10 of the first 22 snaps for the Bucs before leaving with a back injury. While he’s been a stud in recent weeks, this is a tricky spot: returning from an injury of unknown severity against a Chargers defense that ranks 6th against RBs in fantasy.

The Chargers held the Chiefs’ trio of Pacheco, Hunt, and Perine to a combined 14.9 points last week. If Irving is out, Rachaad White becomes a must-start. If both are active, they fall into the back-end RB2/Flex category, just outside must-start status.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Denver Broncos

Must Starts:

Colts: Jonathan Taylor

Broncos: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton

Matchup Upgrade:

Jaleel McLaughlin: In the Broncos' last game, McLaughlin led the backfield with 84 yards on 14 carries (plus 1 catch for 0 yards). Could this be the clarity fantasy managers have been waiting for in the Broncos’ backfield?

Javonte Williams has been ineffective, with rushing yard totals of 1, 59, -2, and 1 in his last four games. While the Broncos operate on a "hot hand" mentality, making it possible for Audric Estime to get more touches, this is a prime matchup against a bottom-5 defense against RBs. McLaughlin is a flex-worthy play this week if you’re in need of a running back.

Grounds for Concern:

Javonte Williams: Somehow projected for 11 points on ESPN, Williams’ value is propped up by receptions and touchdowns. He’s found the end zone in 2 of his last 3 games and is averaging just over 2 receptions per game.

However, his recent performances have been underwhelming, with an average of 7.8 points over his last four games. Even in a favorable matchup, Williams isn’t someone I’d trust in a critical playoff matchup.

New England Patriots vs. Arizona Cardinals

Must Starts

Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson

Cardinals: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Trey McBride

Matchup Upgrade:

Cardinals Defense: While they were shredded by the Seahawks last week (partly due to Kyler Murray’s interceptions), the Cardinals' defense had been solid prior. In their previous four games, they held three opponents to 10 points or fewer and recorded 19 sacks during that span.

The Patriots have allowed the 4th-most sacks this season (43), including 11 in the last three games. This matchup provides an excellent opportunity for the Cardinals’ defense to bounce back.

Grounds for Concern:

Marvin Harrison Jr: To sum up his season: he needs a touchdown to pay off. He’s currently WR28 on the year, just outside must-start status. The positive is that he’s the top end-zone target in a favorable matchup. Trey McBride has not been scoring touchdowns, leaving Harrison as the go-to red zone weapon.

However, Harrison hasn’t been the target monster many hoped for. In games where he doesn’t score, he’s failed to surpass 8.9 points. Adding to the concern, the Cardinals rank near the bottom of the league in pass rate over expected and plays per game (27th), which limits opportunities for the passing game.

Given his draft position, it might be tough to have a better option. I’m starting him in my 12-team league, but with tempered expectations.

Buffalo Bills vs. Detroit Lions

Must Starts:

Bills: Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir

Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Matchup Upgrade:

Amari Cooper: Cooper finally had his breakout game with the Bills, seeing 14 targets and converting them into 6 catches for 95 yards. For context, he only had 13 total targets in his previous four games combined.

He’s firmly behind Khalil Shakir in the pecking order, but with the Lions dealing with 13 players on IR and recently giving up 31 points to the Packers, this matchup has major shootout potential. Cooper is a strong flex play this week.

Grounds for Concern:

James Cook: I was high on Cook in the preseason, expecting him to be a consistent top-10 RB due to volume. Unfortunately, much of his production has been touchdown-dependent rather than yardage- or reception-based.

Last week against the Rams, the Bills completely abandoned the run game, giving Cook all 6 of the RB carries while leaning entirely on Josh Allen’s arm and legs. If not for Cook’s 65-yard touchdown run against the 49ers, he would have been under 45 rushing yards in three straight games.

This makes him a tricky play. In one league where I’m on a bye, I’m holding him. In another, I’m debating between Cook and Tyrone Tracy. It’s a tough call.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Must Starts:

Steelers: None

Eagles: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown

Matchup Upgrade:

Pat Freiermuth (PIT): With George Pickens out again, 8 targets per game are now up for grabs. In a game where the Steelers are likely underdogs on the road, Freiermuth should see an increase in opportunities as the passing game takes on a larger role. He’s a strong TE option this week.

Grounds for Concern:

Najee Harris: Harris has been playing well lately, consistently receiving 16 carries per game over the past six games. He’s been effective, finding the end zone and contributing in the passing game.

However, this matchup is concerning. The Eagles are home favorites and rank 5th against RBs while being top 10 in yards per carry allowed. Without George Pickens, the Eagles' defense will likely stack the box, making it difficult for Harris to find running lanes. While he remains a low-end RB2, his ceiling is capped in this tough matchup.

Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks

Must Starts:

Packers: Josh Jacobs

Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (if Walker is out), Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Matchup Upgrade:

Tucker Kraft: He’s been up and down this season - he had a stretch where 4 out of 5 he had 12+ and then he went cold for a couple games before heating back up the last three. The targets are inconsistent: 2, 7, and 5 in his last three games but he’s scored in 2 of his last 3. Kraft is a trusted target for Jordan Love and as the Packers have moved to a safer, run-first offense, Kraft has benefited.

The Seahawks rank 21st against TEs and should put points up against the Packers defense, giving Kraft the opportunity to produce. I like him as a low-end TE1 this week. 

Grounds for Concern:

Packers WRs: If you’re forced to start a Packers receiver, I feel for you. Can you trust any of them? Jayden Reed was a top-10 WR before putting up a zero. Second, touchdowns have been going to Josh Jacobs.

Third, Reed’s target share is only 17%. The Packers have become a team that loves to run in the red zone, particularly inside the 10-yard line. Reed remains the top Packers WR I would trust, followed by Christian Watson, but neither is a confident start in fantasy.

Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears

Must Starts:

Vikings: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson

Bears: D’Andre Swift, DJ Moore

Matchup Upgrade:

Rome Odunze: Odunze found the end zone twice last week. Since the coaching change, he has seen a 23% target share. Before the 49ers game, the Bears' offense had been playing much better.

Now they face a Vikings defense that has allowed the most points to WRs this season. Fire him up in your flex!

Grounds for Concern:

D’Andre Swift: Swift remains a must-start, but his recent downward trend is concerning. Over his last three games, he’s had at least 13 touches in each but has failed to score more than 10 fantasy points.

The Vikings rank 4th against RBs and appear to be a pass funnel defense. While Swift is still a fine RB2, I would temper expectations. If you have a better option, it might be worth exploring.

Atlanta Falcons vs. Las Vegas Raiders

Must Starts:

Falcons: Bijan Robinson, Drake London

Raiders: Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers

Matchup Upgrade:

Sincere McCormick: McCormick handled 59% of the snaps last week and led the team with 15 carries. He’s solidified himself as the lead back.

One early issue was his lack of involvement in the passing game, but he added 2 catches for 11 yards last week, which is a nice bonus. The matchup isn’t ideal (Atlanta ranks 8th against RBs), but with his volume, he should be considered a borderline flex. If he finds the end zone, he’ll push into RB2 territory.

Grounds for Concern:

No other notable players: You’re not starting Kirk Cousins or Aidan O’Connell, and all the wide receivers are in good matchups. There isn’t anyone else worth avoiding or highlighting as a concern.