There are only three guarantees in life. Death, taxes, and this year's rookie class being the best ever. While the last part is usually wrong, there’s always someone from a draft who’s a valuable asset in terms of dynasty. My question is, is the 1.01 pick always the most valuable dynasty asset from that draft?

Today, we’re gonna look at the last 10 consensus 1.01 picks in a 1QB format and grade them. To determine a grade, we’re going to consider upside or production(younger guys lean more on upside, older guys production) and the strength of the rest of the class, specifically the first round (were there better choices than the 1.01? If so, how many?) Let’s begin!

2024: Marvin Harrison Jr : B+

Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a roller coaster of a rookie year, to say the least. Post-draft, he had plenty of hype about having a top 5 finish for all receivers. Then a poor week 1 performance had everyone questioning his health and athleticism. He immediately followed that with a WR1 finish in week 2 and has been a boom-or-bust guy since.

I think everyone will agree that the skill is there. He’s got the tools to be a top tier receiver in the NFL, he’s just being held back by numerous things(QB, scheme, play calling). While he’s still got the upside he was drafted for, he’s also in a pretty loaded class.

Brock Bowers looks like the reincarnation of Travis Kelce, and Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have both shown elite upside while producing. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to be an exciting player to watch for years, and owners should be excited to witness it.

2023: Bijan Robinson : A+

It was essentially a two-horse race for the 1.01 in 2023. Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. Robinson ended up being the consensus 1.01, but you really couldn’t go wrong with either. In his rookie season, Robinson showed everyone he was the real deal.

Even though he struggled to get a full workload most games (thanks Arthur Smith) he showed his skills as an elite running back. This year, he started off slow but has since found his stride and refuses to take his foot off the gas. Since week six, Robinson is averaging 22.4 points per game. He’s the clear cut RB1 for dynasty at the moment, and looks like he’ll be a league winner for years to come.

2022: Breece Hall : A

Breece Hall was the consensus 1.01 in this year's rookie draft. Ahead of fellow teammate Garrett Wilson, fellow running back Kenneth Walker and fellow gambling enjoyer Jameson Williams. Drake London and Chris Olave are other big names from that class. Hall started his NFL career off strong, taking over as the Jets RB1 on week four. He then had his first top-five fantasy finish in week five and his first 100-rushing-yard game in week six.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in week seven. After starting off slow the following year while recovering, he set fire to end the season. Scoring 43.1, 27.6, and 29 points over the final three weeks of the season, helping plenty of people win their league championship. He finished as the RB2 last year. This year has been a down year for Hall. He’s had as many RB20 or worse finishes as RB10 or better(5 each).

He’s also been battling injuries as of lately. While Wilson and London have had career years this year, they’re really the only two that have some argument for the 1.01 this year. Most of the dynasty community believes Hall will return to form next year and continue to run wild. 

2021: Najee Harris : C-

After 3 years of solid 1.01 picks, we finally have a miss. Najee Harris looked the part in year 1, finishing as the RB4. However, he’s been a shell of his rookie self since then. Harris finished the 22’ and 23’ seasons as RB14 and RB23 and is currently the RB20 this year.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Ja’Marr Chase was a lock for top three in essentially every draft. Chase has been a top 3 receiver for dynasty since his rookie season and is having people debate if he’s the overall WR1 with a career year. Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, and Trevor Lawrence were also taken after Harris and have been more valuable. 

2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire : F

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, where do we even start? We saw the talent, we saw the situation he was placed in, it looked like a recipe for success. Where did it all go wrong? CEH had a solid start to his NFL career. Week 1, he rushed for 138 yards and a touchdown. He held strong until week 7, then the rest of the season was pretty disappointing(particularly due to injuries). 2021 was even worse; he dealt with injuries again and wasn’t productive upon his return.

Since then, he’s been stuck as a backup in the Chiefs’ backfield. While it stings to have him bust, it’s even worse when you see the rest of the first round. Jonathan Taylor, Ceedee Lamb, and Justin Jefferson were all first-rounders that year. The only other busts worse in the first of this draft were Cam Akers, Jalen Reagor, and Henry Ruggs. 

2019: Josh Jacobs : B+

I have to admit, I’ve been a Josh Jacobs hater for most of his NFL career. I have no logical reasoning behind it, but I’ve always bet against him. With that being said, he’s had a pretty solid career so far. He’s rushed for over 1,000 yards in four of his six seasons. One of those misses was due to injury. He's also been productive in the fantasy aspect as well.

Aside from his rookie season, Jacobs has finished as RB8, RB11, RB3, RB28(he only played 13 games this year), and is currently RB8 on the year. He’s worse than DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown, both of whom were mid-first-round choices.

Kyler Murray was looking like a better option over the first 2 years, but has dealt with injuries and hasn’t returned to form. While he hasn’t been a home run in terms of results, Josh Jacobs has been a reliable producer that you can start every week. 

2018: Saquon Barkley : A+

My god, was this draft horrible. Just to name a few guys, this rookie draft featured Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, and Kerryon Johnson. Those 3 were all top 5 picks in a lot of drafts. All jokes aside, Saquon Barkley has been an elite running back since day 1.

He worked through injuries and, arguably worse, playing for the Giants. He’s also RB1 on the year. So, yeah, he’s good. On top of that, the only noteworthy first-round picks of this draft were D.J. Moore, Calvin Ridley, and Nick Chubb. Barkley is an easy A+. 

2017: Leonard Fournette : C-

Leonard Fournette had a very interesting NFL career. He had 3 RB10 or better seasons but also spent an entire season in the middle of his career stuck as a backup. He also only played 7 seasons total, with one of them being two games at the end of 2023.

Now he’s effectively out of the league. While this would still be a solid pick in some drafts, Fournette managed to be in the same draft as Christian McCaffery, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara.

Fournette's saving grace is that the rest of the first-round selections were major busts. While he wasn’t a bad dynasty asset, having at least three significantly better players picked in the first round lowers his grade. 

2016: Ezekiel Elliot : A+

Who else remembers the big towels Ezekiel Elliot would wear while he ran for 100 yards and a touchdown? Zeke took the league by storm in 2016, finishing as the RB2. He had 5 RB10 or better finishes(would’ve been six, but he missed six games in 2017) and was a threat for 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns every year during his prime.

In three of those seasons, he actually finished in the top five. He was one of the most valuable running backs during his peak. On top of that, he was in a very weak rookie class. Derrick Henry has been a step above Zeke, but that’s really it.

Michael Thomas was looking like a close third, and then he fell off the face of the earth. Other fun mentions from this class are Corey Coleman, Kenneth Dixon, and Sterling Shepard(dream man). 

2015: Todd Gurley : C

You can reasonably justify giving Todd Gurley basically any grade. On one hand, he was the best player in this rookie class(especially the first round) and would have been an A+ if injuries didn’t derail his career.

On the other hand, Gurley only played 4 seasons due to knee injuries. This draft class was pretty weak as well, with the only other fantasy-relevant players being Amari Cooper and Melvin Gordon. 

Review

The grades for the last 10 drafts were 4 As, 2 Bs, 3 Cs, and 1 D or below. Ultimately, the 1.01 is a bit of a toss-up. You either get a stud or a dud, with a few mixed in between. That leads to the question that started this post: is the 1.01 worth using?

I’d say it’s a bet worth taking. Every A grade ended up being a top 3-5 player at their position, and you’re getting them for their whole career. Obviously, each scenario is different, and trading the pick is a good option. So I’ll end it by asking you. If you had the 1.01, what would you do with it?