What’s nice about the games this week, is there is a better chance to react to the action. For example, if you played my start of the week Xavier Worthy, then you will probably be in a decent position to win and maybe would want to start a more consistent option, say Khalil Shakir, projected 13.5 points on ESPN, compared to a Boom / Bust option like Calvin Ridley who is projected 13.8.
The flip side is true too, maybe you faced Lamar or Derrick Henry, started Joe Mixon or Zay Flowers. If that’s the case, and you need a boom, you have the opportunity to play a higher-upside player.
These Rankings Are Tailored for a 10-Person PPR League
Specific rosters, league size, and weekly matchups all play a role in lineup decisions. For example, in a 6-person PPR league, a player like Rhamondre Stevenson might not be a must-start. In a 14-person superflex league, you better believe I’m starting Cooper Rush every week.
Label Definitions
Must Starts: You should absolutely start these players.
Matchup Upgrade: Players recommended for starting but not over "must starts." These are borderline starters with favorable matchups, positive game scripts, or recent strong performances.
Grounds for Concern: Players with negative matchups, poor game scripts, or recent struggles. A Must Start player can be in this category.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots
Must Start
Chargers: Ladd McConkey
Patriots: None
Matchup Upgrade:
Kayshon Boutte (WR, Patriots)
Boutte had a breakout game last week against the Bills with 7 targets, 5 catches, 95 yards, and a touchdown. Fantasy managers have been waiting for someone in the Patriots' receiving corps to step up, and Boutte finally delivered. His target consistency is promising—he's had at least 5 targets in all but one game since Week 8—but until now, it hadn't translated into meaningful production.
With rookie QB Drake Maye showing improvement late in the season, Boutte could be poised for a strong finish. Rookies often perform better as the season progresses, and Maye's development should benefit Boutte. While he’s not a must-start, he’s a viable dart throw in deeper leagues or for managers in desperate need of a high-upside flex option. Look for 8-10 points as a baseline, with potential for more if the connection with Maye continues to grow.
Grounds for Concern:
Justin Herbert (QB, Chargers)
Herbert's rollercoaster season continues. Over the past six weeks, his fantasy point totals have been: 24.38, 17.62, 7.98, 13.72, 13.8, and 22.16. While Herbert is playing excellent football from a real-world perspective, his fantasy production has been inconsistent, and he’s struggled to post ceiling games.
The matchup against the Patriots might seem appealing, but their defense has been stingy against quarterbacks the last couple of weeks, holding Josh Allen and Kyler Murray under 12 points. The Chargers are likely to be leading in this game and lean on their running game and defense to secure the win. With this expected game script, Herbert’s ceiling is limited, and 16 fantasy points might be his max this week. Consider benching him for a more reliable or higher-upside option.
Denver Broncos Vs Cincinatti Bengals
Must Start
Broncos: Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton
Bengals: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Matchup Upgrade:
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos): He is a boom/bust flyer. Joe Burrow and the Bengals are on fire this season, ranking 6th in points per game and first in pass yards per game. However, their defense has been poor, ranking bottom five in both points per game and yards allowed. This means the Broncos will have to score early and often in a playoff defining matchup. This is a perfect game for secondary options, such as Mims, to get increased workloads. Mims’ opportunities have increased in recent weeks; he’s averaging 4.5 targets per game over the last four starts. While this isn't spectacular, it's enough to keep him on the flex radar.
Additionally, this game has the 5th highest over/under, indicating a high-scoring affair. If the game turns into a shootout, Mims could be a valuable addition to your lineup, especially in deep leagues. Keep in mind that this is a boom/bust play, but in the right circumstances, Mims could provide the points you need.
Grounds for Concern:
Broncos RBs: It’s a great matchup on paper, but the Broncos’ running back room is a true RBBC nightmare straight out of the 7th ring of Dante’s inferno. Jaleel McLaughlin was out last week, leaving Javonte Williams to step up with 7 catches on 12 targets—but for a pedestrian 29 yards. Meanwhile, Audric Estime led the team in carries (9) and scored a touchdown but failed to earn a single target. Adding to the chaos, Blake Watson chipped in with 4 carries.
In PPR formats, even if McLaughlin returns this week, the limited production and wildly inconsistent usage make this backfield a complete avoid. No Broncos running back inspires confidence for fantasy managers heading into such a critical week.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Rams
Must Start:
Cardinals: Kyler Murray, James Conner (if active), Trey McBride
Rams: Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua
Matchup Upgrade:
Kyler Murray (QB, Cardinals): He comes in at QB9 for me this week, just inside the top 10 and therefore a Must Start, despite his rollercoaster season. Over the past six games, he’s been above 20 fantasy points twice, below 11 points three times, and added a solid 17.96-point performance. It’s a wild ride for Murray managers, especially those facing a tough playoff decision (like me choosing between him and Bo Nix in a 12-team league Championship this week - going with Nix).
The Rams defense limited Aaron Rodgers and the Jets last week to 9 points but still allowed him to pass for 256 yards. The issue with Murray this season has been touchdowns and play style. He has only two games with 3 passing touchdowns and a mere 16 touchdowns in 15 games. Additionally, the Cardinals rank 25th in pace of play and have a pass rate over expected of -6.1%, opting to run early and often.
So why the upgrade? Two reasons:
1. Previous Performance Against the Rams: Back in Week 2, Murray lit up the Rams with 266 passing yards and three touchdowns, leading to a season-high 28.54 points.
2. Game Script: The Rams have been fantastic offensively, and this game carries the 4th highest over/under of the week, signaling a potential shootout. If James Conner is out or limited, Murray may have to lean on his arm and legs even more.
Grounds for Concern:
Cooper Kupp (WR, Rams): Kupp’s fall from fantasy grace has been shocking. I still remember passing on him in drafts before his record-breaking season, not knowing he was about to produce the greatest fantasy WR campaign in history (I still won my league that year somehow).
Unfortunately, injuries and the rise of Puka Nacua have dimmed Kupp’s star. His last two weeks have been brutal: a goose egg (0.0) followed by 5.4 points. Over his past four games, he’s been under 5.5 points three times.
The Good News:
This game is expected to be higher scoring, as noted above, offering opportunities for a bounce-back.
The Bad News:
The Rams heavily favor the run in the red zone, and Kyren Williams has been a touchdown machine, leading all running backs in fantasy points inside the 5, 10, 15, and 20-yard lines. Williams is the focal point of the Rams' offense when they get in close.
The matchup is decent: the Cardinals ranking mid-pack against WRs. But the Rams run at a higher-than-expected rate, and Williams is the main option in close, so Kupp’s chances of a significant role are limited. If I had a similar option, I’d sit Kupp this week.
Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Must Start:
Titans: Chigoziem Okonkwo
Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr
Matchup Upgrade:
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, TEN): He enters Must Start territory with his stellar performances over the past two weeks. His role has expanded significantly, with 21 targets in the last two games compared to just 20 targets across the previous six weeks. The Jaguars’ defense ranks 26th against tight ends this season, making this matchup particularly favorable. Since Mason Rudolph took over at QB, Okonkwo has enjoyed a massive 30% target share.
The connection is undeniable, and the results have followed: back-to-back games with over eight catches and a dominant 19.1 points in his most recent outing. This is a dream scenario for fantasy managers: the matchup is favorable, the QB loves him, and the production is already there. Plug him into your lineup with confidence!
Grounds for Concern:
Tony Pollard (RB, TEN): He’s the type of player who does better with 15 touches than 20+. The wear and tear of the season has really gotten to Pollard and his efficiency has dropped dramatically. Over the last two weeks, he has averaged just 8.3 points per game, and even his 16.6-point performance included six points from a touchdown.
Adding to the concern, Pollard is losing critical snaps to Tyjae Spears, who is now out-snapping him and taking over goal-line duties. The wear and tear of the season have taken a toll on Pollard, and with his declining role, he’s not someone I’m willing to trust in a playoff matchup. For me, he’s a clear bench candidate this week.
Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Must Start:
Panthers: Chuba Hubbard
Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Mike Evans
Matchup Upgrade:
Rachaad White (RB, TB): For someone who has been supplanted as the starter, Rachaad White remains a key part of Tampa Bay’s offense. Despite a costly, game-losing fumble last week against Dallas, White still managed 7 catches for 50 yards, producing 11 fantasy points. His PPR reliability makes him RB18 on the season, averaging 13.9 points per game.
This week, White faces a Panthers team that ranks dead last against running backs. The game is expected to be high-scoring, with the third-highest over/under of the week. The matchup, combined with his volume in the passing game, makes him a solid RB2 option. Look for White to rebound and deliver a productive fantasy outing.
Grounds for Concern:
Tampa Bay Defense: While the Buccaneers’ defense has been a popular streaming option, this is not the matchup for them. The Panthers have improved significantly since their early-season struggles. Over the past four weeks, defenses have scored as follows against Carolina: 2, 4, 17, and -1. Notably, the 2-point performance came from Tampa Bay themselves.
The Bucs' defense has been inconsistent, thriving in good matchups (11 points vs. the Giants and Raiders) but faltering in neutral or challenging matchups (2 points vs. the 49ers, 2 vs. the Panthers, 10 vs. the Chargers, and 1 vs. the Cowboys). The Panthers are a neutral matchup this week, which suggests another low-scoring outing for the Tampa Bay defense. I’d steer clear of the Bucs’ defense in Week 17.
Indianapolis Colts vs. New York Giants
Must Start:
Colts: Anthony Richardson, Jonathan Taylor
Giants: Malik Nabers
Matchup Upgrade:
Anthony Richardson (QB, IND): If you’re starting Richardson this week, you’re headed for a championship-winning performance. I hope you got what you wanted for Christmas because the Giants defense is a gift that keeps on giving. Richardson has the pleasure of facing a team late in the season, with nothing to play for, that struggles against what Richardson likes to do: throw it deep. According to Next Gen Stats, the Giants allow the highest completion percentage on throws of 20+ yards downfield. They’ve also managed a league-low 3 interceptions.
Richardson’s rushing ability provides a solid floor, but his upside this week is through the air. Pairing him with Alec Pierce in DFS could be a valuable stack, as Pierce leads the league in average depth of target (aDOT). Richardson’s dual-threat skill set and favorable matchup make him one of the most exciting quarterback options in Week 17.
Grounds for Concern:
Tyrone Tracy Jr (RB, NYG): Tracy’s situation is emblematic of the Giants’ offensive struggles this season. Despite his versatility, the offense around him limits his potential. On Sunday against the Falcons, Tracy led the team with 11 touches (7 carries and 4 receptions) and managed to score the team’s lone touchdown. However, his dependency on touchdowns to reach RB2 territory is concerning.
Tracy’s point totals over the last three games where he hasn’t found the end zone are disappointing: 7.9, 9, and 4.5 PPR points. While he’s scored in half of the games he’s started, relying on a touchdown to salvage a fantasy day is risky. In this sputtering offense, Tracy is a dicey play with a low floor.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints
Must Start:
Raiders: Brock Bowers
Saints: None
Matchup Upgrade:
Raiders Defense: The Saints’ offense has been a disaster recently, evidenced by their posting the only scoreless game in the league this season. With Derrick Carr and Alvin Kamara likely still sidelined, the offense falls into the hands of Spencer Rattler. In his 5 starts this season, Rattler has led the Saints to just 4 total touchdowns. He’s also been sacked 17 times and thrown 3 interceptions during that span, making him a prime target for opposing defenses.
The Raiders, while ranked 29th among fantasy defenses, have faced tough divisional opponents and the NFC North this year, skewing their numbers. In a matchup against this struggling Saints offense, they are set up for a potential big day. If you’re streaming defenses, the Raiders are a top option this week.
Grounds for Concern:
Kendre Miller (RB, Saints): Even in a depleted Saints offense, Miller has failed to make much of an impact. Over the last three games, he’s averaging just 9 carries and 6.3 fantasy points per game. The lack of offensive production from the Saints prevents Miller from getting into scoring opportunities, and his role in the passing game has been negligible.
Given the Saints' offensive struggles and Miller’s lack of efficiency, he is unstartable in all but the deepest leagues. Unfortunately, this applies to nearly every player on the Saints roster this week. Avoid Miller and the Saints offense altogether if possible.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Must Start:
Cowboys: None
Eagles: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
Matchup Upgrade:
Jake Ferguson (TE, Cowboys): With the news that CeeDee Lamb is out for the season, Jake Ferguson sees an immediate upgrade in his role. Last week, Ferguson produced his best game of the Cooper Rush era, hauling in 6 catches for 40 yards. While 10 fantasy points isn’t groundbreaking, it’s a solid contribution in what projects to be a low-scoring game.
This matchup against the Cowboys presents an opportunity for Ferguson to become a key short-yardage and red-zone option. With Jalen Hurts (as of 12/27, 9:45 AM) unlikely to play, the Eagles will rely heavily on their run game and defense, turning this into a grind-it-out affair. Ferguson is a viable streaming option for managers in need of a tight end.
Grounds for Concern:
Rico Dowdle (RB, Titans): After a great three-game streak of 120+ rushing yards, Dowdle’s momentum came to a screeching halt against the Buccaneers. While he continues to see a healthy workload of 15+ touches per week, the matchup against the Eagles is daunting.
Philadelphia ranks 2nd in the league against running backs, allowing minimal rushing production. In their earlier matchup, Dowdle managed only 8.6 fantasy points despite being part of a balanced offensive attack with CeeDee Lamb commanding defensive attention. Without Lamb in the lineup, the Eagles defense will likely key in on the run game, further capping Dowdle’s upside.
If you’re forced to start him, temper expectations. Unless he finds the end zone, it’s unlikely Dowdle will reach double-digit fantasy points in this challenging matchup.
New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Must Start:
Jets: Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson
Bills: Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir
Matchup Upgrade:
Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ): The classic “squeaky wheel gets the grease” scenario is in play here. Garrett Wilson has struggled to meet expectations recently, falling below his projected fantasy total in 5 of his last 6 games. Against the Rams, Wilson was notably underutilized with just 3 targets through most of the game and expressed his frustrations post-game, saying:
"I'd like to be involved, love to make an impact on the game, but people see it differently," and "That's out of my control."
Historically, when comments like these surface, teams make a point to get their star receiver involved in the following game. This is an excellent opportunity for Wilson to bounce back, especially in a matchup where the Jets may need to play catch-up. With the Bills likely leading and forcing the Jets into a pass-heavy script, I’m projecting Wilson to exceed his healthy 15-point projection. Start him with confidence.
Grounds for Concern:
Aaron Rodgers (QB, NYJ): After a vintage, season-best performance two weeks ago, Aaron Rodgers came crashing back down to earth against the Rams, failing to lead the offense to a touchdown. The entire unit appeared disjointed and out of sync.
While this matchup has the highest over/under of the weekend, Rodgers is a risky start in such an important week. The Bills defense ranks top 10 against quarterbacks, and Rodgers has been wildly inconsistent throughout the season.
He could be worth considering as a DFS play stacked with Davante Adams and/or Garrett Wilson, given his boom potential, but in a season-long championship game, I’d steer clear. The stakes are too high to roll the dice on such an unpredictable option.
Miami Dolphins vs. Cleveland Browns
Must Start:
Dolphins: De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith
Browns: None
Matchup Upgrade:
Jerome Ford (RB, Browns): If you need a reliable flex option, Ford could be the answer. He's coming off back-to-back 100+ yard performances and, most importantly, had 16 touches last week. Assuming Dorian Thompson-Robinson starts over Jameis Winston, Ford should maintain a workload in the 15-18 touch range.
The most encouraging aspect of his last outing was his involvement in the passing game: 5 catches for 39 yards, translating to an additional 8.9 points in PPR formats. That extra production moves Ford from a low-end flex option to a solid RB2 consideration. Miami ranks mid-pack against running backs, so there’s no significant matchup concern here. If you need someone to plug into your lineup, Ford offers both a safe floor and upside.
Grounds for Concern:
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Dolphins): Tagovailoa's impressive hot streak came to a halt two weeks ago against Houston. Prior to that, he had posted 4 consecutive games with 23+ points and hit 17.5+ points in 5 of his last 6. However, Houston and San Francisco brought him back to earth, and this week’s matchup isn’t ideal for a rebound.
The Browns rank only 20th against quarterbacks, which might seem favorable, but the weather forecast for Sunday includes rain and wind gusts up to 20 MPH. This could severely impact the Dolphins' passing attack. Additionally, Cleveland’s defense recently held Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson under 16 points, proving they have the talent to disrupt quarterbacks. If you have a safer or more weather-proof QB option, I’d recommend starting them over Tua in this crucial week.
Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Must Start:
Packers: Josh Jacobs
Vikings: Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson
Matchup Upgrade:
Jayden Reed (WR, Packers): Jayden Reed’s season has been a roller coaster. After an explosive start that had him ranked WR4 after six weeks, his production has dipped, leaving him at WR22. However, this matchup offers a prime opportunity for a bounce-back.
The Vikings’ secondary has been a revolving door for opposing wideouts, giving up significant performances recently:
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: 8/95/1
Keenan Allen: 6/82/1
Darnell Mooney: 6/142/1
Drake London: 5/70
Marvin Harrison Jr: 5/60/1
With the Vikings ranking last against WRs, the stage is set for Reed. While betting on a Packers receiver can feel like playing roulette, Reed is the most talented of the group and leads the WR corps in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. This matchup offers big-play potential and a chance for Reed to deliver a WR2 performance.
Grounds for Concern:
Sam Darnold (QB, Vikings): He has been one of the most surprising fantasy QBs this season, climbing to QB8 overall—a remarkable feat considering he wasn’t even a lock to start in the preseason. However, this week presents a challenging scenario for him.
The Packers rank 1st against QBs and have held 11 quarterbacks under 17 points this season. They have an elite pass defense that ranks:
5th in interceptions
7th in passing yards allowed
6th in sacks
Adding to the concern is the pace of play. The Packers play slow, ranking 27th in pace of play over their last three games and 23rd on the season. On the road, they are the league’s slowest team. The Vikings also rank 25th in pace of play at home, setting up a game with fewer opportunities and a focus on controlling tempo and minimizing mistakes.
While Darnold’s rise has been impressive, this isn’t the week to trust him in your lineup. The combination of a tough matchup, a low-tempo game script, and a defense that excels at limiting QBs makes him a sit for this week.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
Must Start:
Falcons: Bijan Robinson, Drake London
Commanders: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin
Matchup Upgrade:
Commanders D/ST: Rookie Michael Penix Jr.'s debut was exactly what you’d expect: he completed 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards but threw an interception, and his inexperience was evident. While the Falcons’ defense had a strong showing last week with two defensive touchdowns, they were playing against an overmatched opponent.
The Commanders’ defense, however, is a different story. Over the second half of the season, they’ve been top 6 against wide receivers. The Falcons would like to to lean heavily on Bijan Robinson, but if the Commanders can neutralize him, Penix may be forced to air it out. That’s where the Commanders' defense can capitalize, creating turnovers and pressuring the rookie. This makes the Commanders D/ST a strong play this week.
Grounds for Concern:
Darnell Mooney (WR, Falcons): See reasons above. Michael Penix Jr.’s inexperience limits the upside for all Falcons receivers not named Drake London. The Commanders' defense has been excellent against wideouts in recent weeks, and a WR2 in an offense led by a rookie making his second start is a risky proposition during championship week.
Mooney has exceeded expectations this season but isn’t someone to trust in a game with limited passing volume and a stout opponent. This is not the week to roll the dice on Mooney unless you’re in a deep league or absolutely desperate.
Detroit Lions vs. San Francisco 49ers
Must Start:
Lions: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta
49ers: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, George Kittle
Matchup Upgrade:
Jameson Williams (WR, Lions): The talent has always been undeniable, but his inability to stay on the field has limited his opportunities and have kept him from breaking out—until recently. Since Week 11, Williams has been the WR15, averaging 16 points per game. He’s seen consistent involvement in the Lions' offense during that stretch, earning at least five touches in all but one game.
This week, he faces the league's top-ranked defense against wide receivers in the 49ers, but there’s reason to believe Williams can overcome the matchup. With the Lions’ defense struggling due to injuries, the offense will need to continue to produce at a high level to keep pace. The Lions have scored at least 34 points in three consecutive games and are eager to avenge their heartbreaking NFC Championship Game loss to the 49ers last season. While the matchup isn’t ideal, the game script and Williams’ recent form make him a solid WR2/flex option in Week 17.
Grounds for Concern:
Isaac Guerendo (RB, 49ers): The Lions will likely come out swinging, determined to bury the 49ers early and not repeat last season’s collapse in the NFC Championship Game. This aggressive mindset, coupled with the 49ers being officially eliminated from playoff contention, creates a game script that could severely limit Guerendo’s value.
Coming off an injury, Guerendo faces a Lions defense that ranks in the top five against running backs. While he’s shown value as a pass-catcher—totaling four receptions in his last game against the Rams—the potentially limited rushing opportunities, a challenging matchup, and a likely negative game script make him a highly risky start. If you have other options at RB or flex, it’s best to leave Guerendo on the bench this week.
These recommendations are based on current team performances and matchups. Always monitor player statuses and team news leading up to game time to make the most informed decisions for your fantasy lineup.