Welcome back! Today, I am presenting the second edition of my fantasy baseball 2025 season analysis. In this article, I’m going to cover first base. Who I like and dislike, who I think can break out, and who I’m personally picking for the 2025 fantasy season. Let’s get started! All image credits go to Baseball Savant.
Top 5 First Basemen for 2025 Fantasy Baseball
Honorable Mention
Christian Walker, Houston Astros
2024 Stats:
.251/.335/.468 26 HR, 84 RBI
While the top five first basemen are basically locked in, it’s a really interesting debate to see who gets the sixth spot. Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, and Spencer Steer are all very close in ADP. Not to mention, Mark Vientos is projected to be the first baseman for the Mets in 2025. While they all have arguments for why they should take this spot, I believe Walker deserves it the most. He played very well last year, posting a 121 OPS+.
He’s had fairly similar production over the last three years, with last year having him rank top five in points per game(aside from ESPN). For the icing on top, the Houston Astros have a stadium that Walker will thrive in. Walker could have had an extra five to ten home runs last year if he played in Diakin Park(RIP Minute Maid).
My only concern with Walker is his age. At 34 years old, he shouldn’t severely regress, but there’s always a chance it will happen. Or maybe the ghost of Jose Abreu comes and steals Walker’s baseball skills. I don’t think either of those will happen, and I am looking forward to watching him smash homers in 2025.
5. Pete Alonso
(Free Agent)
2024 Stats:
.240/.329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI
2024 was, by all means, a down year for Pete Alonso. He recorded the fewest home runs, RBIs, and WAR since his sophomore season(in which he only played 57 games). He also hit a career-worst .459 slugging last year, albeit also had a respectable 122 OPS+. With that being said, his worst full season to date still had him finish as a top-five first baseman in fantasy.
There’s a lot to like about Alonso’s game. He walks at an above-average rate, doesn’t chase as much as most other players(albeit he did have a ton of strikeouts last year), and is really just a good hitter in general. Where Alonso chooses to sign will definitely impact his fantasy outlook, but overall, he’s a pretty safe bet to put up reliable numbers every year.
4. Matt Olson
(Atlanta Braves)
2024 Stats:
.247/.333/.457 29 HR, 98 RBI
I’ve flip-flopped multiple times now between Alonso and Matt Olson for the four spot, and after much thought, I believe Olson deserves it more. Like Alonso, Olson had a down year last year. Producing less in every category outside of doubles, Olson struggled for extended portions of the season. He did finish the year strong, though, posting a .911 and .954 OPS in August and September. Not to mention, his savant page looked impressive as well. When Olson makes contact, he hits the ball hard with elite exit velo, barrel %, and hard hit %.
Want to hear the interesting part? Those are his worst since he’s been ranked. Olson kills the ball, plain and simple. There’s also plenty of reason to believe he has a bounce-back year. The Braves dealt with plenty of injuries last year and really never fielded their best lineup. Having Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, and Michael Harris II back will give him more opportunities for good at-bats and RBI chances.
A fun side note if you’re into superstitions: Olson rakes in odd-numbered years. His worst OPS+ in an odd-numbered year? 139, back in 2019. He’s been a 5+ WAR player in odd years, and I think he can do it again this year.
3. Bryce Harper
(Philadelphia Phillies)
2024 Stats:
.285/.373/.525 30 HR, 87 RBI
Honestly, these final three are extremely close. Fantasy Pros has them ranked 1.5 ADP apart from each other. Bryce Harper, unfortunately, takes the third spot for me. He’s a beacon of consistent raking. Over his last 5 years, Harper’s slash line is .291/.396/.540 for a .936 OPS, with an OPS+ of 156. He’s easily a top player at his position.
My only knock on him is his inability to stay healthy. Harper has averaged 114 games over his past five seasons. The good news is that since moving to first base, he’s been much better at staying healthy. Harper is an easy pick with the upside to finish as the best first baseman this year.
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr
(Toronto Blue Jays)
2024 Stats:
.323/.396/.544 30 HR, 103 RBI
Vlad Guerrero Jr. had a monster year last year. Winning his second career Silver Slugger award by having the second-best season of his career. He was also the best first baseman in fantasy scoring last year by a pretty decent margin in most scoring leagues. Guerrero Jr. was top three in every single offensive stat for his position, leading a lot of them too. It was a great year for a guy looking to cash out in free agency now. I mean, just look at his savant page. Phenomenal is an understatement.
Guerrero is in a contract year, which people believe will help him step his game up even more. If you want to pick a player simply from an upside perspective, this is your guy.
1. Freddie Freeman
(Los Angeles Dodgers)
2024 Season Stats:
.282/.378/.476 22 HR, 89 RBI
What a year it’s been for Freddie Freeman. He started off the year like his usual self, hitting .291 with 14 home runs and driving in 61 through the first half of the season. His second half was less impressive, posting a .266 average with eight home runs and 24 runs batted in. Freeman missed some time in the second half due to personal problems and spraining his ankle at the end of the year. He then battled through the postseason on one ankle and made history in the World Series.
Last year was Freeman’s worst statistical season since 2015, and I believe he bounces back. A truly elite hitter, Freeman walks a ton, limits strikeouts, and makes a lot of good contact. Over the last ten years, he’s posted a 148 OPS+. The man is a freak of nature and will continue to see fantasy success. Aside from his physical abilities, Freeman is also on the best offense in baseball, which will give him plenty of opportunities to drive in runs. While Guerrero definitely had a better year last year, he’s been volatile.
He had his best season to date in 2021 and followed it up with a disappointing season the following year. Freeman has maintained his elite offensive output, and I think that deserves some serious consideration. Vladdy is a better option for pure upside, but Freeman is the better choice for consistency and reliability.
Breakouts to Target
Tyler Soderstrom
(Athletics)
Tyler Soderstrom was a top 100 prospect due to his bat and was hitting a nice .992 OPS in AAA, which helped him get the call to the majors. His 2023 stint was horrendous, putting up -1.1 WAR in just 45 games and hitting an abysmal 34 OPS+. This year, however, he hit for a 114 OPS+ over a 61-game span. While it could be some good luck, his advanced stats seem to say he’s legit. Here’s his exit velocity, as well as barrel and hard-hit percentage in 2023: Pretty poor, right?
Here’s 2024:
A huge turnaround. Soderstrom will continue to struggle with strikeouts, but his bat is looking like he could be the real deal. He’s also a catcher originally, so moving to first base will give him more time to focus on his offense. My biggest concern is just that he plays for the Athletics.
They’re an organization known for making boneheaded moves and trying to be as cheap as possible. I wouldn’t put it past them to send Soderstrom down just because they get a bad vibe. Either way, Soderstrom is likely going to be one of the final picks of your draft. I believe he will have a solid season this year.
Kyle Manzardo
(Cleveland Guardians)
Like Soderstrom, Kyle Manzardo was a top 100 prospect known for his bat that raked his way onto the major league roster last year. Manzardo put up a .946 OPS in AAA and got the call in May, but struggled and got sent back down. He continued to hit well in the minors and was brought back in September, where he proceeded to hit five home runs, drive in eight, and hit .270 (albeit he also had 18 strikeouts in 63 at-bats).
The Guardians moved off of Josh Naylor this offseason, and even though they signed Carlos Santana to a 1-year deal, there’s definitely a world in which Manzardo takes the starting job in spring training. With a 60-grade hit tool and a 50-grade power tool, Manzardo has the potential to be a middle-of-the-road guy in the future. This year should be a good step in that direction.
Michael Toglia
(Colorado Rockies)
Michael Toglia first got the call to the majors back in 2022, where he had a forgettable 31 games. In 2023, he was back up and somehow significantly worse, posting a 31 OPS+. Last year, Toglia played 116 games. Posting a respectable line of .218/.311/.456 and hitting 25 home runs. While they’re all things I liked, I got my socks knocked off when I saw his savant page.
His expected stats were significantly better than his actual stats. Yeah, sure, his strikeout and whiff rates suck. But everything else is phenomenal. I mean, really, how is this guy not going to be a great fantasy asset next year?
Players to Avoid
Coby Mayo
(Baltimore Orioles)
Now, before you kill me, this has nothing to do with Coby Mayo as a player. I’m sure he’s bound to be an all-star one day. He’s solely here because he’s on the Orioles. His actual draft value is little to none, and I’d be happy to have him as an NA stash, but I don’t think he’s a guy I’m acquiring in a trade unless it’s a sweetener for me. Simply put, there’s no spot in the lineup for him. We knew this last year, and a lot of people assumed someone(likely Mayo, but even Ryan Mountcastle) would be traded and Mayo would find an easier path to an MLB roster.
That never happened. While I see a deal still happening in the future, without a guarantee, there’s nobody in their starting lineup who’s really a bench player. Maybe Ryan O’Hearn, but he just had a very solid year. I prefer to use my NA spots on players who have a clearer path to a starting lineup.
Cody Bellinger
(New York Yankees)
This one is simple enough, I prefer the output on similar drafted guys compared to him, and he’s overvalued in Yahoo leagues. Anthony Santander, Mark Vientos, and Triston Casas are all players I’d prefer over Cody Bellinger. Part of it could be that I’m a Yankee fan, and I prefer to avoid players from that team. I always see the classic “homer” in fantasy sports and have built myself to be the opposite. Either way, he’s a pass for me.
FTR My Guys
Similar to catchers, I’m aiming to avoid anyone in the top five.
Christian Walker
(Houston Astros)
Christian Walker provides a similar point-per-game average as Pete Alonso and is significantly cheaper in ADP. As I wrote above, I also believe there’s a significant chance Walker will improve this year.
Spencer Steer
(Cincinnati Reds)
I have to say, Spencer Steer has some of the weirdest stats in baseball. He posted an OPS+ of 96 last year, and his savant page isn’t all that exciting. So how does this man have a batting run value of 23? How is he in the 90th percentile? I don’t think I’ll ever know, but either way, his positional versatility greatly helps your team overall. If he can bounce back to stats closer to his 2023 season, he’s a steal at his average ADP of 87.
Michael Toglia
(Colorado Rockies)
That savant page has me hooked. Not to mention, he plays in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. I think Toglia can easily outperform his ADP.
Synopsis
First base is a very steep position. It feels like you can take any of the first 15 and not feel like you have a legitimate hole in your lineup. Personally, I really prefer the guys in the 80-100 ADP range. They’re all going to be productive hitters and solid fantasy assets with the potential to be a top 5 player. There are also some interesting prospects/young guys for this year as well.
Coby Mayo, Tyler Soderstrom, Kyle Manzardo, even guys like Ben Rice and Deyvison De Los Santos are interesting roster holds. I’m interested to see if Olson and Freeman bounce back and if Guerrero Jr. can follow up with another MVP-caliber season and secure a contract extension for himself. Who do you think is a breakout candidate? Who is on your draft boards? Let me know in the comments below!