Welcome to Part V of the Get Better at Dynasty Series. In Part IV, we broke down the value and risk of draft capital. Now, using the abundant dynasty theory laid out in Part IV, it’s time to apply our new understanding of draft pick value to the most complex decision facing dynasty owners this offseason: How to trade up and down in the dynasty rookie draft.
Overconfidence and Uncertainty
By far the hardest part of maneuvering around the board during the dynasty rookie draft is having to check our own overconfidence in our draft evaluation process. It’s so easy to fall into the trap of thinking of dynasty rookies like sure things. Truly, none of us could imagine Marvin Harrison Jr. exiting his rookie year as the WR3 or WR4 in his own rookie class, yet here we are.
This problem is even harder because although most of us are aware that we’re overconfident in our rookie evaluations, we also know that later picks are quantifiably less valuable than early picks, and that exceptional cases do exist that justify trading up. But then we never know until later whether we correctly identified an exceptional case or not. Somebody somewhere traded away the picks that would become Brian Thomas Jr. and Brock Bowers for Marvin Harrison Jr.
And yet somebody else probably traded away the picks that would become Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson and ended up with Brock Bowers. While this can all feel like a big guessing game, there are a few strategies we can employ to manage our own overconfidence and make uncertainty work for us.
1. Sell certainty on average
2. When tiering up, acquire specific value propositions
3. Trade for profiles, not for names
4. Trade up with indifferent owners, trade down with motivated owners
5. Don’t split hairs
6. Give yourself outs and insulation
Selling Certainty on Average
As you maneuver around the board, a good gut check to test if you’re being too overconfident in your draft evaluation is whether you net bought or net sold certainty across the average of all your trades. By “buying” certainty, I mean making trades that require you to nail a pick for you to win the trade. By “selling” certainty, I mean making trades for the purpose of acquiring more dart throws, and not over-relying on getting a single scouting report correct.
Suppose you packaged together a trove of draft picks and turned it into two high first rounders, you bought certainty. If you traded back from a mid first in exchange for a later first and an early second, you sold certainty.
To feel good about whether you managed your own overconfidence during the dynasty rookie draft, make sure that on average across all your trades you sold more certainty by trading down than you bought by trading up (or just stick and pick). I am not saying “always sell certainty” or “all trades that sell certainty are good”. Rather, if on average your trading activity has net bought certainty, it can be a sign you’re trading emotionally.
Buying certainty makes your draft haul more brittle and reliant on your own scouting ability. Unfortunately there are so many variables beyond our control that it’s a very dangerous game to rely on our scouting ability to win a trade.
While I will stop short of saying “never trade up”, I do think if you look back on all of your draft day trades and find you net bought certainty, you’re setting yourself up for a disappointing draft class. This begs the question though, what are the cases where it might be justifiable to trade up, or how can I give myself better odds to succeed when I do trade up?
Tier Up with Precision
In the cases that you do consolidate draft assets to move up the board, the value proposition for why you want to trade up can range from from qualitative to quantitative on one axis, and from personal to market-based on the other. By “personal”, I mean value propositions based on information that you personally consider important, but that your league mates might not perceive or care about.
Personal value propositions tend not to be tied very closely to trade value, and become discarded quickly as soon as the season starts and rookies underperform or play well. For example, the moment a player starts putting up bad (or good) tape, the community stops caring about specific indicators that were based solely on college stats or the offseason process. Nobody cares about Bucky Irving’s RAS now that we’ve seen him break tackles at the NFL level.
By market-based value propositions, I mean considerations that target qualities that are inherently valued by your leaguemates and by the consensus of the dynasty community even beyond rookie seasons. This makes them tied much more closely to trade value and more durable. A player who is tied to an elite QB will still be tied to that QB even after he struggles his first couple games, and it acts like a force multiplier. If you player hits, we’ll be very excited about him, and if he misses we’ll still be intrigued by his potential if he improves.
Consider this table to get a sense of what kind of opinions fall into each part of the grid. Keep in mind this is more of a spectrum than a discrete table, and certain indicators can be closer to being market-based than others.
While there is no single source of truth for whether your value proposition is sufficiently solid to justify trading up, I lean strongly towards the market-based justifications, and the more quantitative the better. “I think Player X is the best remaining player on the board” is often a good way to lose dart throws for nothing, while “Player X is the last remaining WR with top-40 draft capital” is a specific observation that we know translates into hit rates.
Another relevant one is “Player Y is the last remaining RB with Day 2 draft capital”, which tends to also be significant for prospect hit rates. While not as clear cut as justifications related to draft capital, the special cases of insulation, runway, and projected fantasy roles can sometimes be good justifications for singling out a specific prospect to target. In the case of projected fantasy roles, preferring a QB with rushing upside over a QB with no rushing upside can be a major edge.
Likewise, preferring a running back with pass catching ability to a running back who is a two-down thumper can lead you to taking the Bucky Irving types ahead of the Audric Estime types. Value insulation refers to whether your prospect might still retain trade value even if their rookie year goes badly.
This is usually a judgement call that depends on how the dynasty punditry and your leaguemates come to a consensus on prospects, but it also relates to draft capital. For example, a player like Keon Coleman has very little value insulation because the draft community was skeptical about his contested catch profile in the first place, whereas somebody like Rome Odunze has lots of value insulation because of draft capital and because we all scouted him and absolutely loved him (still do, tbh).
Suppose next year Keon Coleman and Rome Odunze both improve only marginally or stagnate. There will still be a trade market for Odunze but Keon Coleman will likely become radioactive. When trading up from the 2.02 range to the 1.07 range, of course you’re doing it because you think Odunze is better, but your trade is safer because you are acquiring insulation.
Runway refers to whether the coaching staff has a specific plan for the player that will result in fantasy production. It can also refer to how soon you’ll have a chance to fairly evaluate the player, since there is value in knowing what you have after one year. You can make better, more strategic decisions during the next dynasty offseason by targeting players with good runways in the previous offseason.
Suppose you have one team that drafted Malik Nabers and Ja’Lynn Polk, and another that drafted Rome Odunze and Ben Sinnot. The first owner can attack the offseason more confidently knowing they have one stud player and dud, whereas the second owner might be an emerging rebuilder who has no idea how close they are to being a contender.
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Trade for Profiles, Not for Names
Very similarly to picking market-based, and hopefully quantitative, value propositions for making your trades up, you should make sure you’re acquiring a better profile than what you could land later in the dynasty rookie draft. Instead of targeting a specific player, target ranges of draft capital or skillsets you want a chance to acquire.
Profiles to acquire can include...
1. Players within a specific range of draft capital (eg first round, top 40, day 2, etc)
2. Players who fit specific fantasy roles (eg QB with rushing upside, RB with pass catching upside, WR who projects to be a PPR stud, etc)
3. Players tied to elite QBs or offenses, since these are tied to overall upside. For example, last year I acquired a ton of Ladd McConkey because I liked his chances of being Justin Herbert’s favorite target.
4. Players who are artificially cheap because they’re blocked by weak competition. Yes, on paper Bucky Irving was going to be stuck behind Rachaad White. Or Brock Bowers was technically competing with Michael Mayer for snaps. But the point is this competition is actually illusory, because it’s not good enough to block somebody who hits. The key point here is that your prospect is only blocked if they’re mediocre, but if they can play, they’ll emerge anyways.
This is essentially a focus on process rather than results. For example, despite being very low on him predraft, I took Xavier Legette in a ton of drafts because he kept falling to 2.10 or later. Although I disliked the name, I liked the profile. I will go to my grave spending the 2.10 or later on a wide receiver prospect with first round draft capital and a runway to early playing time. Legette hasn’t paid me off so far, but if I make this decision every year, it’ll pay off on average.
Indifferent Owners
When you trade up, there are only two possible reasons your trade partner was willing to trade down with you.
1. They wanted to make a pick, but you gave them something too good to refuse
2. They like (or dislike) many options in this range equally, and require just a little compensation to postpone the decision.
You always, always want to be trading up with the latter owner. This trade can be mutually beneficial, since it means you two are natural trade partners who have complementary tiers, and your trade partner needs only a slight incentive to grease the wheels of commerce.
In the latter case, the very fact that the other owner clicked “accept” is a bad sign for you. Recall in part IV where I mention the endowment effect. In this scenario, both you and your trade partner are likely overconfident in a specific draft opinion, and the very fact that you made this trade means you’re the most overconfident one.
Trading with Owner 1 means you’re out on a limb, and the only way you win the trade is by nailing a scouting opinion. Yes, you can sometimes be right, but be sure to notice when you’re doing this and be self-aware enough to really think about whether you’re doing the right thing.
On the other hand, when you’re considering trading down, get a sense of whether you’re dealing with owner 1 or owner 2. If you’re dealing with somebody who wants His Guy, you know you can ask more, even if you’re theoretically the indifferent owner yourself. Try your best to test the waters and see how motivated they are to make a trade with you.
Don’t Split Hairs
When you’re trading up in the draft, make sure you’re acquiring somebody who brings something uniquely better to the table than the tier of options if you stay. Don’t give up random draft picks just to pick a slightly preferred player in the same tier, and don’t make trades that require you to nail who is better between two specific prospects. You especially should not split hairs before the NFL draft because the draft can change so much.
For example, maybe people this year will try to trade up from a draft pick that could become Luther Burden in order to pick Tetairoa McMillan. I love Tet, but seven months ago many of us thought Burden was the better player. Who knows what we’ll think a year from now. Now, I would rather have Tetairoa McMillan than Burden, but if they both land in similar situations, I am not willing to give up assets in order to split hairs between them.
Suppose they both go to situations where they aren’t stuck behind anybody notable, would you really, truly be surprised if Burden was equally as good, or even blew McMillan out of the water? You shouldn’t be, because human beings are on average bad at drafting, and there are so many variables out of our control.
The key nuance here is that something could happen on draft day that leads to a case more akin to the Tier Up With Precision section, such as Burden falling twenty picks later than Tet, or ending up competing with CeeDee Lamb for targets.
Meanwhile, if somebody is trying to move up and is splitting hairs, let them. If you can acquire a similar profile later, and get assets on top, go for it. You can think about it in a similar way as when trading up. What profile are you missing out on, and which profiles are available in the tiers you’d be trading back to?
Give Yourself Outs and Insulation
In any draft day trade, up or down, you should try to give yourself as many outs as possible. An “out” refers to an outcome that results in you winning the trade, or at least being satisfied with it. Increase your “luck surface area” by finding scenarios that lead to you winning the trade even if your initial motivation for making the trade is wrong. Insulation can often serve as an out in and of itself by giving you the flexibility to help yourself out later.
Giving up an established player? Try to get back not only the pick you’re targeting but also a Strong Stash or Weak Stash type of player. Trading back? Try to also get a future pick for insulation and late picks in a tier you are fascinated by. Trading up with a rebuilder? Get back a startable veteran who might contribute to a few wins during the season.
Generally when you make draft pick trades, you are expecting to win the trade by ending up with the best drafted player in the deal, or an equally good player plus other assets. However, this can be a very hard way to make a living in dynasty, and you should try to find other paths such that the trade benefits your team. Some common types of outs are:
1. Acquiring stashes who add upside variance to your side of the trade
2. Acquiring vets who contribute to your lineup
3. Acquiring additional dart throws later in the draft
4. Acquiring future picks, which give you flexibility to win the trade by making follow-up trades later
Trading Down
To this point, this article has sounded a bit like it focuses on trading up, but that’s mostly because the circumstances to justify a trade up are more stringent and present a higher bar to clear compared to trading down. However, the principles learned so far are applicable to both sides. However, I will offer specific advice on how to trade down so that you don’t have to put it together piecemeal from the rest of the article.
When trading down, you should consider the profiles available in the tiers you’d be moving back to. Ideally, you get paid to move lower in the same tier (to an owner who is splitting hairs), but otherwise you want the chance to make multiple picks in a tier that’s almost as good as the one you’re forfeiting. Think about what kind of profile you’re forfeiting, and whether the profiles you’re getting back are worth it.
For that reason, I won’t be advising most owners to trade out of Ashton Jeanty, because running backs who get top 15 draft capital, project as three down workhorses, and have clear runways to early fantasy production, are rare, valuable profiles with high hit rates.
It’s really hard to make that up in the aggregate. On the other hand, the rest of this year’s dynasty rookie draft is deep but not loaded with blue chip talents. For that reason, you might find that when you trade down, you’re taking multiple shots at profiles that are equally as desirable as the prospect you’re giving up.
As a general rule of thumb, put yourself in your trade partner’s shoes. If they’re ignoring the tips outlined earlier, odds are they’re a good trade partner for you. Place a special emphasis on acquiring profiles, not names. Don’t trade back hoping a specific player will be almost as good as the player you’re giving up. Instead, consider the tier of prospect you are gaining access to. And don’t forget to give yourself outs.
Synopsis
Moving around the draft board is extremely hard, and a lot of the time it can feel a bit like being a poker player. Much like being a poker player, you can bet emotionally because you’re scared or overconfident, or you can bet dispassionately, play the odds, and play your opponents’ tendencies.
The profitable players do the latter. When considering draft day trades, you need to remember that no matter how good you are at scouting, you and your trade partner both have an emotional bias towards being overconfident about your 2025 dynasty rookie draft evaluations.
The solution is not to never scout. Instead, it’s to follow these tips and tricks to become the master of your own biases and emotions, and to play the odds. By forcing yourself to be a net seller of certainty, and by buying specific profiles and value propositions instead of prospect evals, you’ll make trades that on average are good for you.
Instead of making trades that require you to nail a prospect evaluation, if you leverage your league mates’ overconfidence against them and always play the odds, you’ll become the most successful drafter in your league.