Welcome to Part VI of the Get Better at Dynasty Series. In Part V, we broke down how to move up and down the draft board strategically. Today, we’re going to talk about organizing and honing the scouting process to be as manageable and fantasy-relevant as possible. More an art than a science, prospect scouting is an incredibly complex challenge that has never been completely solved and never will be.
With as much trouble as NFL front offices have scouting, dynasty players have an even tougher job, since professional general managers have access to information and resources that we don’t. How then, do we get an edge on our leaguemates by scouting? My advice is to break down the scouting process into a series of fantasy-relevant observations that are as unambiguous to grade as possible.
Traditional Scouting
While dynasty punditry is pretty good at breaking scouting into a series of quantifiable ratings, the typical scouting report that you will read from your average NFL.com writer looks something like this:
Player X
Long bio I cannot possibly bring myself to read carefully, including awards the prospect won at daycare.
Strengths
Good body control along the sideline
Explosive first step in his release
Has that dawg in him
Weaknesses
Stiff hips
Could have better hand usage
Faded in some big games
Conclusion: Early 2nd round grade
Even if every last observation in this example scouting report is true, what the hell does a dynasty owner do with this information? We don’t know how much to care about each strength and weakness, and we can’t reliably use this information to make conclusions and stack up this prospect against similar ones.
It’s not clear how much any of these observations translate into fantasy football value. By turning the scouting process into an exercise of answering a series of much more isolated, manageable questions, we can more accurately tier and evaluate prospects.
Breaking Down Scouting Into Subproblems
From a big picture perspective, scouting aims to answer two very broad, very vague questions.
1. How good is this football player?
2. How much better or worse are they than their peers?
Trying to directly answer this question can be overwhelming and is often a moving target, since it requires you to deal in gray areas with vague impressions that are hard to compare player-to-player.
Instead, a much more effective approach can be to break down the scouting process into a series of more specific and discrete observations with a clearer connection to fantasy football scoring. Once you’re done answering all these questions, you’ll be able to see the forest through the trees and make actionable tiers based on relevant, impactful information. While everybody is free to go about this however they like, I make my tiers based off of (in no particular order):
1. Ability
2.Situation
3. Insulation
4. Draft Capital
5. Scouting Player Ability
This subproblem is by far the most interesting because it’s the most subjective and will be the biggest source of disagreement between owners. It’s also the one most associated with the term “scouting”. Like before, I suggest breaking down this still overwhelming question into a series of even smaller components. While you are encouraged to include anything and everything you consider important, as a bare minimum you want to organize players according to:
1. Where they win, in terms of fantasy-relevant roles
2. Any skills that are important to earning and holding on to playing time.
Generally a player must meet some bare minimum requirement at the skills that go into earning a role, enough to see a snap share that makes the juice worth the squeeze. Past that point, you should prioritize players who are as exceptional as possible at the most impactful traits.
Let’s go position by position and take a look at which traits might fit into each category. When you read the following tables, note that I’m highlighting them according to my rough estimation of how important they are. If you make these for yourself, make one of these tables per player and highlight based on how strong that player is in that category.
Also note that to the extent that I care about athleticism, it’s in terms of the on-field impact the player’s athleticism (or lack thereof) has on their scouting categories. Keep in mind that even traits I highlight in red are important enough to include. I’m just trying to show they’re *relatively* less important than the other traits.
Finally, you are highly encouraged to remove or add traits as you see fit. Nobody needs to scout exactly the same way I do. Rather I’m suggesting ways to organize your thoughts so that you can develop a scouting process that works for you.
Quarterbacks
Rushing ability is key in fantasy football scoring at the quarterback position. Even in leagues that have 6 points per passing touchdown, rushing quarterbacks tend to have a higher market share of their team’s total yardage and touchdowns.
Anticipation refers to the quarterbacks ability to throw to a spot before the wide receiver has even finished their break, because they can read the coverage and know the receiver will have a window once they turn their head to find the ball. Anticipatory throwing is what separates “NFL open” from “college open”.
Any rookie quarterback you see struggling because “nobody is open downfield” is usually just making it look that way because they’re bad at anticipatory throwing. In my opinion, anticipation is a massive separator between the elite pocket passers and busts.
For quarterbacks without major rushing ability, “arm talent’ is usually more of a ceiling play than a floor play. QBs with elite arm talent are more likely to make big plays and score points in chunks. However, quarterbacks can become very good even without elite arm talent. To me, arm talent means much more than just chucking the ball deep. It’s more so the ability to make an exceptional throw against great defense, whether by threading the needle into a tight window or by throwing a ball into a bucket.
Arm strength is typically a prerequisite to arm talent, but arm talent is more than just pure arm strength. Improvisation functions similarly. It’s more of a trump card that can make a player appear unstoppable even against a sound defense. While deep passing is great to have, successful deep completions tend not to happen so often in the NFL that they’re something you should count on when scouting. A player who is exceptional at deep passing but merely average at the other traits is usually not a good prospect.
To me, sack avoidance and turnover avoidance are important for a quarterbacks prospect to stay on the field because they set a floor for the offense. Coaches will have short hooks for quarterbacks prospects who cause their offense to appear dysfunctional and not NFL-caliber, and the number one way to do that is by consistently creating negative plays.
Here is an example table I filled out last year for Jayden Daniels. He has taken some major steps forward in the pros in terms of scrambling to pass and dissecting blitzes, which I didn’t see coming. However, the balance of rushing ability, big play ability, and turnover avoidance made for an enticing package even without the benefit of hindsight.
Running Backs
Generally, you have something at running back if they can dominate their team’s workload around the goal line and early downs plus get *something* in the pass game, or if they can dominate the pass game and at least get on the field on early downs and around the goal line. If you have somebody who can do both, you’re really cooking.
Notice I don’t list “rushing” in the fantasy-relevant traits. Before you get out your pitchforks, it’s because “elusiveness” and “explosive play ability” both refer to the types of rushes that actually matter in fantasy. A running back who takes twenty carries but fails to be elusive or break a big play will not be in for a good fantasy day.
If any stats down here are surprisingly down-weighted, that’s most likely because they’re nice to have in a vacuum but only insofar as they affect how good or bad a prospect might be at a more impactful trait. For example, we definitely expect “size” to be really important to “short yardage”, but we’ll throw that out the window if we watch a smaller player with great contact balance and grit consistently move the chains.
However, I actually do care a lot about “size” in terms of goal line because I think it’s an input to how likely an NFL coach is to roster a designated “goal line back” to steal work from a leading running back. Again, more an art than a science. Feel free to adjust these per your preference. Here is what this table would look like for Ashton Jeanty.
Before somebody comes at me for thinking his explosive play ability is merely “good”, I think his big plays are more so thanks to the massive elusiveness rating I give him, and I’m trying not to count it twice.
Wide Receivers
Intermediate usage is king for wide receivers, since the wide receivers who excel in this area are the ones who best balance consistent production with high-value opportunities. This can include anybody from Puka Nacua, who excels more in the “catching away from frame” and “holding on through contact” areas, to Ladd McConkey, who excels in the “suddeness” category. Meanwhile Garrett Wilson is probably the best prospect I ever scouted at attacking the defensive backs blind spot.
“Leverage” refers to a receiver’s ability to create a throwing window by separating the DB from the ball using his frame and by hands-catching the ball away from his frame. It’s the attractive, more successful older brother of “50/50 balls” in the family of receptions with no separation, because a leveraged throwing window is actually a high percentage throw if the receiver and quarterback are on the same page. Tetairoa McMillan is outstanding at this.
While deep usage is great to have, it’s more of a cherry on top. You don’t have a valuable fantasy asset if your wide receiver excels *only* here. “Throttling” refers to being able to get deep separation by picking the correct time to accelerate and get initially behind a defender, which tends to be more helpful than pure track speed at getting open deep. “Stacking” refers to putting the DB squarely behind you so that they cannot get back into phase and make a play on the ball.
Bigger receivers naturally have more of an advantage when it comes to stacking defensive backs. Deep speed, much like stacking, is another way to consolidate an advantage after separation has been created. However, there is a reason pure track athletes rarely succeed in the NFL, since getting deep is very slept on as a skill rather than a physical trait.
You’ll notice I have “release” here twice. This is because the goal of a receiver’s release is slightly different depending on where they’re trying to win. To win a release on a deep route, the goal is more so to make vertical progress and stack as quickly as possible. For an intermediate or short route, it’s to get to the correct leverage. A wide receiver needs to get clean quickly and then put the defensive back on the correct shoulder, so that his break takes him away from the defensive back, not into him.
Here is McMillan’s scouting report using this template...
Tight End
I’m going to level with you, I do not consider myself very good at scouting the tight end position. Brock Bowers’ run after catch and movement ability was clearly special, but unless more generational prospects are walking through that door each year, I might be in trouble.
Hell, I also thought Kyle Pitts was a generational mover at the position. Note that my “traits for earning a role” are uniquely important for both floor and ceiling outcomes at the tight end position because their usage can be so situational if they’re not always on the field.
I will make a few observations about what differentiates tight ends as elite fantasy assets, and then leave you to hopefully scout better than me.
1. Blocking. If your tight end’s OC thinks he needs to be taken off the field situationally, you don’t have a reliable fantasy asset. Sorry Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts. Tight ends need to be full service players, or they need to be so exceptional that they rarely come off the field (Brock Bowers, Travis Kelce). It is very dangerous to rely on the latter when scouting college players.
2. In-line usage. If your tight end’s OC thinks they can only be deployed as supersized wide receivers, you have a part time player who does not benefit from mismatches against linebackers.
3. Run after catch / movement skills. There are many, many inefficient tight ends in the league. It is exceptionally hard to be an elite fantasy asset if you’re one of those tight ends that falls down immediately after every catch (i.e. bad at “turns into a runner”). The tight ends who get designed targets and make chunk gains are the ones who can run after catch.
Here was my Brock Bowers scouting report...
The gist of this report is that Bowers’ movement skills were so exceptional that it didn’t matter if I actually thought he was just ok at the “day in day out” jobs that mediocre tight ends do. His last year at Georgia, I actually thought his hands were inconsistent.
Every now and then he would wow you with a one-handed grab, but then other times he’d fail to make a play on a ball that isn’t strictly a drop but where you’d like to see him make his QB look good. Like I said, I don’t think I evaluate these guys well. I hope you do better than me.
Situation
Situation is an incredibly dangerous game to play. Exceptional players can transcend situations, especially at the quarterback position, but then with most players it’s hard to tell how much the situation made the player and vice versa. Be that as it may, especially for non-quarterbacks there are a couple reasons to care about situations.
1. They’re often tied to insulation and trade value
2. Elite offenses have more opportunity, which impacts both the ceiling and floor of each prospect. Pass catchers tied to elite quarterbacks will also have more stable value
3. Runway
Runway refers to the path available to a prospect to consolidate a large role in the offense. This can occur either because a player is drafted to be “the guy” in a role with no competition, or because there is only nominal competition in the form of mediocre players who can be dusted if the prospect turns into a really good player.
Players in the latter situation are often underrated by the draft community because fantasy players too often ignore that targets/touches are earned. They don’t flow like water down the path of least resistance. Great players consolidate opportunities against good competition, and bad players fail to consolidate opportunity even against awful competition.
Sometimes, players can be completely blocked from achieving high end fantasy ceilings due to being drafted behind elite players. In these cases, it’s up to you to decide whether you’d prefer a player who might have a decent chance of becoming a key starter (eg drafting Jordan Addison), vs a player who is more volatile but has a path to being the unquestioned elite asset on his team (eg Quentin Johnston).
I don’t have to tell you how that one went, but in future cases it can easily flip the other way. There is also a nuanced component to runway, which is that players with more runway are easier to either build around or move on from after one year. In my last article, I gave the example of an owner who broke a tie between Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze using runway.
A player who has Nabers knows what he has and can plan their roster knowing a starting spot is locked up. Whereas a player who owns Odunze might unnecessarily pay a premium to add a starter at their WR slot, or fail to adequately address the position, depending on how he performs next year.
Insulation
Insulation refers to how well a dynasty asset retains trade value regardless of on-field performance. It’s closely tied to draft capital, but there are elements to insulation that are unrelated. These can include:
1. Excitement or skepticism by the dynasty community. The consensus of dynasty players and punditry on a prospect has an active role on the market value of underperforming players.
2. Age
3. Scapegoats
4. Considerations that make the player a stash, such as being blocked by old players
Consider somebody like Xavier Legette, who was consistently going in the late, late portions of the second round despite having first round draft capital. Between his age and the general skepticism of him as a prospect who didn’t excel at separating, this man is the holy grail of poor insulation. If he does not take a major step forward in the first few games of the 2025 regular season, he will become radioactive.
On the other hand, Ben Sinnot’s value will remain roughly the same as it is now, even going into the next offseason, because we think of him as a “Strong Stash” waiting around for Zach Ertz to leave. “Scapegoats” refers to the built in excuses benefitting the insulation of players in bad situations who will get a second chance if the situation changes.
This would include the quarterback rooms that Garrett Wilson and Drake London dealt with over the first few years of their careers, or Caleb Williams being on a team with an HC and OC many were skeptical about. Players attached to lame duck coaching staffs will often get the benefit of the doubt and retain their value just a little longer. However, I would not recommend chasing players who are only insulated due to bad situations. People weren’t exactly lining up to trade for Caleb Williams until the Ben Johnson hire was made.
Draft Capital
Time and time again, it’s found that draft capital is the single most predictive indicator of fantasy success, more so than individual rankings or models. This is because it’s a composite of all the information available about a player, culminating in an NFL franchise investing in that player with a highly prized asset, i.e. a draft pick. I’ve discussed why draft capital is so informative in previous articles, but I’ll leave this here again. If you’ve already read this excerpt, feel free to skip past.
“Firstly, draft capital directly measures the level of investment and belief in a player. Players with high draft capital are more likely to have an intentional runway to playing time and touches, and it’s more likely the team’s head coach lobbied to draft them. They’re also more likely to have a long leash if they don’t hit the ground running. In this sense, draft capital can be a self-fulfilling prophecy when it comes to fantasy success.
Secondly, NFL teams have access to information that we simply don’t. If a player is uncoachable or lazy, sometimes we don’t know until well after our fantasy drafts, if ever. So if you believe in a player’s talent, but he tumbles to day three, there is often a good reason.
Thirdly, NFL front offices might on average be better at talent evaluation than individual dynasty owners. It kills me to admit this and I will obstinately continue scouting prospects myself.” It is worth noting there are some reasons to ignore draft capital to some degree.
1. Differences in positional value between the NFL and fantasy football. Namely, this means bad fantasy quarterbacks often get more draft capital than good fantasy running backs. If you’re choosing between a second round quarterback and a third round running back, the running back can often be the right choice.
2. Differences between being good at real life football and being good at fantasy football. Some profiles are just more coveted by NFL teams than by dynasty owners and vice versa. For example, a dynasty owner might be justified in somewhat bucking draft capital to prioritize a rushing quarterback over a pocket sloth. Likewise, speedy receivers who profile as only complementary pieces often go in the middle of the first round of the real draft despite being mediocre fantasy assets.
3. Runways that severely cap fantasy ceilings, not due to mediocre nominal competition. Zach Charbonnet would have been a first round dynasty asset if not for being selected to be the handcuff to Kenneth Walker III. Sometimes you just have to downgrade the player.
4. Extreme differences in evaluation. Basically everybody was drafting Ladd McConkey before Xavier Legette, and we were right. Sometimes, if you know you know.
Overall Scouting Report
Once the NFL Draft rolls around and you have every piece of the puzzle, including situation and draft capital, you can make final tiers incorporating all of the information we have discussed. You’re also encouraged to maintain provisional tiers as you scout that make some guesses about draft capital and that are mostly ability-based. Here is what your final big board might look like.
Stay tuned for when this series ends and I transition into scouting full time, at which point we’ll fill real players into these slots. To quickly address positional value, my stance is that you should never take a player in a lower tier solely due to need or positional value, but that it can serve as a tiebreaker within tiers.
Synopsis
Rather than reinventing the wheel trying to scout NFL draft prospects, we can do efficient and original work by scouting from a lens of fantasy football value. By organizing our scouting into a series of observations with relevant, impactful ties to fantasy football scoring, we can make meaningful and insightful distinctions between prospects.
This approach also has the benefit of synthesizing the information embedded in draft capital with our own observations about a player’s tape. My hope is that rather than prompting you to scout like I do, this article will instead serve as a springboard to organize your thoughts and help you make your scouting observations as impactful and actionable as possible.
Remember that scouting and drafting is the most fun part of dynasty, so have fun with it! Until next time, stay hungry and stay sharp.