One of the best ways to approach Best Ball tournaments is to seek out uncertainty. Drafters are often averse to uncertainty. While there is obvious upside potential in uncertain situations, drafters often worry too much about potential low floor outcomes. When it comes to Best Ball, especially large field tournaments, low-floor concerns should be cast aside if paired with the potential for a high ceiling.
Rookies offer some of the best high-ceiling opportunities with the risk of a low floor bringing down their ADP. I’ll highlight which rookies offer the ceiling needed to advance in your best ball tournaments or win your cash leagues.
I’ve collected data from the past 5 seasons of rookies to get an idea of how impactful rookies can really be for your Best Ball teams. Comparing this to the current ADP of rookies allows us to find some value in drafts. All fantasy finishes are based on half-PPR scoring. All ADP data is based on Underdog’s Best Ball ADP.
Quarterback
Rookie quarterbacks have had a resurgence after a stacked 2024 class at the most important position in sports. Jayden Daniels finished as the QB5 and Bo Nix as the QB7. The class had top performers and a lot of depth, with four rookie quarterbacks finishing in the top 30 at their position.
This year’s class doesn’t feature the same high-end talent or depth, but it isn’t the worst class we’ve seen recently. Cam Ward and Shadeur Sanders are seen as likely top 5 picks and are more impressive prospects than any selected in 2022.
Over the past 5 years, the top-performing rookie quarterback has finished, on average, around QB14. While that includes Daniels’ great season, it also includes seasons where Mac Jones and Kenny Pickett were the top rookie passers. So far, the top rookie quarterback, Ward, is being drafted as the 23rd passer off the board, with Sanders not far behind at 25th. 2022, with Pickett as the top rookie passer, is the only time in the past 5 years that the top rookie quarterback finished that low for fantasy.
Both Sanders and Ward will likely be starters very early in their rookie season, if not right away. Adding one of these rookie passers to your best ball team alongside an established QB1 could provide great upside at a very cheap price. It’s likely that as the offseason progresses and we get more certainty around the situations for those quarterbacks, their ADP will rise. Take advantage of the market uncertainty now.
Running Back
Running backs have historically been quick producers for fantasy, not requiring the development that some other positions require at the NFL level. This year’s class is considered very deep at the position, with a top prospect leading the class in Ashton Jeanty.
The top rookie running back has averaged an RB10 finish over the past 5 years, with an average of 2.4 rookie rushers finishing as a top 24 fantasy running backs each season. This class may be the best we’ve seen over the past five years. The market is taking that into account, with Jeanty currently the 6th running back off the board and four backs being taken among the top 24 at the position.
While I think the market has taken into account the strength of this running back class, there are opportunities to find some late fliers at the position ahead of the NFL Draft. For example, I see Devin Neal as a potential starter or at least a high-value committee back. He’s currently ranked as the RB41. If you’ve taken the time to scout the 2025 class, you should be able to find some sleepers that’ll be much cheaper now than after the draft.
All of the top rookie running backs also have the potential to outpace their ADP. Jeanty, at 6, has the least room to maneuver, but given his otherworldly college production and projected early 1st round capital, he could find himself with as much volume as any back in the league. The broad 2nd tier of running backs includes Omarion Hampton, Kaleb Johnson, TreVeyon Henderson, and Quinshon Judkins.
These four backs have ADPs ranging from 19 to 25. Henderson’s speed and explosiveness mean he could take over a backfield the way Ken Walker did as a rookie in 2022 on his way to a PPG finish as RB14. The other three backs all have the build and production to take over as workhorse rushers from day 1 with high volume. The backs going in the same range as this tier of rookies all have significant concerns heading into the season.
Montogomery could continue to lose work to Gibbs, Conner is turning 30 and continues to struggle with injuries, Tyrone Tracy was a 5th-round pick a year ago and could be replaced, Pacheco didn’t reach 50% of snaps in any of the seven games he’s played since returning from injury.
I’ll gladly take a rookie running back projected to receive high draft capital than any of those veteran options with significant questions surrounding them and limited upside.
Wide Receiver
The tide is changing on rookie wide receivers. It used to be common for rookie wide receivers to struggle in their first season and see a breakout in season two or three of their career. Recently, though, rookie wide receivers have been the best performers of any position.
Over the past 5 years, the top rookie wide receiver has finished as the WR8 on average. That includes 4 top 6 finishes over the past 5 years. There’s been an average of 2.6 rookie wide receivers in the top 24 of their position each year and 6.2 per year in the top 50.
That means that rookie receivers have the ceiling to finish among the top at their position despite not being drafted anywhere close to there while also providing good depth for those that don’t have the Puka Nacua or Ja’Marr Chase-type rookie seasons.
This season’s rookie wide receiver class isn’t viewed at the level of last year’s historic class, but the 2025 class does feature a number of very good prospects who will be selected in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft.
The rookie wide receiver with the highest ADP currently is Tetairoa McMillan at WR26. The top rookie wide receiver hasn’t finished below WR19 over the past five years. Obviously, we don’t know whether McMillan will be the top rookie producer, but there’s certainly value to be had at receiver throughout this class.
With an average of 2.6 top 24 wide receivers being rookies and no receiver from this class currently being selected in the top 24 receivers by ADP, I’m picking multiple rookie receivers in almost all my drafts. Some of those rookies to target are Tre Harris at WR59, Luther Burden at WR37, Emeka Egbuka at WR41 and Matthew Golden at WR50. I’m going to make sure that I get a decent share of McMillan at WR26 as well.
In that same range of WR35 to WR 60 are veterans who have shown signs of decline, including Deebo Samuel, Cooper Kupp, Stefon Diggs, and Keenan Allen. Those veterans may still be able to provide some benefit to their NFL teams, but their fantasy heights are all behind them. Others in that range are receivers with little to no path to a top-12 finish or, for some, even the top of their team’s depth chart.
That includes receivers like Khalil Shakir, Jauan Jennings, Jakobi Meyers, Darnell Mooney, Rashod Bateman, and Marvin Mims. These players may have solid seasons that see them finish as a strong WR3, but they don’t have the ceilings needed to win in Best Ball.
Tight End
Tight end is the position that varies the most among rookies. In each of the past two years, we’ve seen the top rookie tight end finish first overall in the position. For two of the three seasons before that, though, the top rookie finisher at the position didn’t crack the top 20 tight ends.
This season has a good group of tight ends but no elite prospect like Brock Bowers or Kyle Pitts in past years. This class is more similar to 2023, in which Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta were the top tight ends selected.
I’m bullish on tight ends this year because of the teams with needs at the position. The Chargers and Broncos are both teams that are widely connected to the top two tight ends in the class. Both teams would likely see the rookie pick vaulted into the starting lineup immediately and would be paired with a reliable quarterback and little competition.
The market is currently valuing Tyler Warren as the top rookie tight end at TE10. Colston Loveland follows at TE18, and Harold Fannin Jr rounds out the top 3 at TE24.
My rankings have Warren, Loveland, and Fannin much closer together than their ADP, so I’ll be drafting a lot more of Loveland and Fannin at ADP than Warren. That being said, at TE10 and in a year where there are few sure things at the position, I’ll be collecting a few shares of Warren as well.
Synopsis
Rookie wide receivers currently have the most value from top to bottom. The tier of running backs after Jeanty and tight ends after Warren provide a lot of value, with those top options being valued fairly by ADP. The rookie quarterbacks may not have a top-12 season this year, but at their current ADP, they don’t need to. They also provide enough upside to take a swing on while valued much closer to their floor.
There’s value to be had with rookies of all positions this year, stemming from the uncertainty that comes with pre-NFL Draft Best Ball drafting. Take advantage before rookies start flying up boards once the NFL Draft season comes.