In fantasy football, it's never too early to make early judgments on the ADP (average draft position) of next year’s group of players. The landscape of the NFL changes every single year, as does the world of fantasy football, so these draft positions are critical to keep an eye on, even well before the season begins.

 

 

In the end, your fantasy draft will be shaped around ADP and whether you choose to follow its blueprint or not. This makes identifying potential fades in fantasy football all the more important. Avoiding these players in 2025 will give you a better chance of taking home your league championship!

 

The following four players should be avoided in 2025 fantasy football drafts, barring any massive unforeseen change to their respective situations. (Note: This list uses 2025 ADP from Underdog Fantasy Football)

 

Patrick Mahomes

(QB, KC)

 

Underdog ADP: QB6

 

Don’t get me wrong, Patrick Mahomes is one of the all-time greats at the quarterback position. This is an undeniable fact. However, this truth does not change that he has become a slightly overrated fantasy football quarterback over the last two seasons. 

 

Despite this, Mahomes’ ADP still consistently ranks around the top-five at his position, ahead of the likes of Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, and Kyler Murray. While Mahomes may be a better real-life quarterback than these fantasy alternatives, his production in the fantasy football world has left a lot to be desired over the past two seasons. 

 

 

Not all of this is entirely on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, however. Kansas City’s offense no longer pushes the ball downfield like they used to. Mahomes’ ADOT (average depth of target) on PFF’s statistics backs this fact up, dropping to the lowest marks of his career in each of the past two seasons by a significant margin. If a change in offensive staff were to take place, I could be moved to take Mahomes off of this list.

 

Nonetheless, Kansas City’s quarterback also posted his first season as a full-time starter with under 4,000 passing yards. On top of this, Patrick Mahomes also posted the second-fewest pass attempts of his career in a season as a full-time starter.

 

This surprising lack of production and volume through the air, combined with his limited rushing upside, drops Mahomes in my fantasy rankings. This is reflected in his absence in my Way Too Early Top 24 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025).

Garrett Wilson

(WR, NYJ)

 

Underdog ADP: WR15

 

After winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2022, wide receiver Garrett Wilson looked poised to make a giant leap in production over the next few years. After the team traded for future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Wilson’s fantasy stock reached an all-time high. 

 

 

Even though the hype train had officially left the station, the Jets faltered in 2023, leading to Wilson’s statistics suffering as a result. Rodgers suffered a major injury that knocked him out for the year and the Jets failed to finish the season on a positive note. 

 

Heading into 2024, Garrett Wilson was surrounded by reluctant excitement. No one had really seen the Rodgers-Wilson connection, so the young receiver’s ceiling still looked to be sky-high. Unfortunately, while not terrible, the pair fell short of expectations once again, and New York missed the playoffs.

 

I am no longer confident in Garrett Wilson as a fantasy asset as long as he is a member of the New York Jets. This is because their quarterback situation remains unresolved, with Rodgers likely moving on this offseason. They are left without a top-five pick in the 2025 NFL Draft to select a top-tier quarterback prospect, and this year’s free agent quarterback class appears to be extremely underwhelming. 

 

If Wilson wants to win back the favor of the fantasy community, the Jets organization must either trade him or supply their offense with a competent quarterback, assuming Rodgers and the Jets actually end up parting ways sooner rather than later. 

 

 

Kenneth Walker

(RB, SEA)

 

Underdog ADP: RB18

 

Kenneth Walker struggled mightily in 2024 behind an offensive line that was ranked bottom-10 in both pass-blocking and run-blocking grading by PFF this season. While this may have been the case, Walker still didn’t showcase strong availability, only playing in 11 games in 2024.

 

The third-year back also put up the worst rushing efficiency of his career, only averaging 3.75 yards per carry this season. There was a silver lining, however. Statistically, Walker put together the best receiving season of his career. This may increase his value in PPR leagues, but I’m still not sold. Firstly, second-year running back Zach Charbonnet looked impressive in his sophomore season, especially in the absence of Walker.

 

As the NFL shifts more towards two-back systems, Charbonnet’s strong efficiency as a runner could earn him more carries. The UCLA product already scored more rushing touchdowns than Walker in 2024, and if Seattle gives him the green light, Charbonnet could take on a massive role in this Seahawks backfield. 

 

These factors make it hard to trust Walker when many safer running backs will also be on the board in a similar ADP range this summer.

 

 

Breece Hall

(RB, NYJ)

 

Underdog ADP: RB11

 

Similarly to my entry regarding Garrett Wilson, part of running back Breece Hall’s fantasy woes revolve around the present situation around him in New York. First, it’s extremely obvious that Hall took a step back statistically in 2024. He received significantly fewer opportunities as a runner and a receiver and ran with the worst efficiency of his career (4.19 yards per carry isn’t bad, though).

 

His opportunities in through the air especially were inconsistent towards the end of the season as Hall saw his snap count fall over the last five weeks of the 2024 fantasy campaign. While usage is one concern, the Jets also have several young, explosive running backs at their disposal outside of Hall. A pair of rookies, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis, made a definite impact on this New York backfield in their respective inaugural seasons.

 

If either of them hits their stride fully in 2025, Breece Hall could see a further decrease in snap percentage, hurting his fantasy value. In my opinion, these factors make Breece Hall very difficult to trust in 2025 fantasy football, which in turn creates a situation in which Breece Hall cannot be selected as a top-12 running back in fantasy drafts next season.

 

For reference, Breece Hall did not even make my list of the Way Too Early Top 24 Fantasy Football Rankings (2025). In the end, Hall has a very impressive ceiling, but a shockingly low floor. He should be drafted with extreme caution whenever 2025 fantasy football drafts roll around next summer.