A couple of months ago, I wrote an article reviewing the history of the 1.01, reviewing each year’s pick, and assessing whether it was worth using. Today, I’m taking an even more in-depth look, reviewing every first-round pick for the past decade. PSA: These picks will be graded for a 1QB format.
First-round picks are pretty valuable for both rebuilders and contenders. It’s a vital asset to help bring your team to glory or rebuild from the ground up. So that’s where my question comes in. Just how valuable is a first-round pick? What are the odds that a first-round pick becomes a legitimate asset? Let’s dive in and find out! For this, I will use Fantasy Football Calculator to determine the order for each year.
I won't be perfect with my picks. But the general rules I'm following for grading go as follows:
1. Production only. Every guy here had potential. The only way to truly compare picks now vs picks years ago is to go off production.
2. Grades are scaled with the picks. The 1.01 has to do more to receive a higher grade, whereas the 1.10 doesn't need to produce as much to receive a good grade.
2024
1. Marvin Harrison Jr. - C
2. Malik Nabers - A+
3. Rome Odunze - C-
4. Brock Bowers - A+
5. Caleb Williams - B-
6. Brian Thomas Jr. - A+
7. Xavier Worthy - B-
8. Jayden Daniels - A+
9. Ladd McConkey - A
10. Jonathan Brooks - F
Overall Grade: A
The 2024 class had a set top three: Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. So far, Nabers has established himself as one of the faces of the future. He scored 109 receptions for 1,204 yards and finished as WR6 on the season. Harrison Jr. and Odunze both had disappointing rookie seasons.
Both of them only had two games with 100+ receiving yards. Odunze had nine games with six or fewer fantasy points(PPR scoring). Harrison Jr. only had six such games but only had five WR20 or better weeks. While both have the potential and skillset to be elite players at their respective positions, they haven't proven it yet.
Brock Bowers set records in a TE1 season and has firmly established himself in his own tier for the tight end position. Jayden Daniels is arguably the number-one dynasty asset after a remarkable rookie season. Xavier Worthy had a massive uptick in production late in the season, going from zero to hero in the fantasy playoffs and becoming a much more interesting player for next season.
Will he take a step forward like Rashee Rice? If Travis Kelce retires, does he get even more usage? Only time will tell. Jonathan Brooks was the worst pick of this round. After tearing the same ACL he tore in college, he has a long road to recovery and has lost significant value. Overall, this class has a lot of extremely valuable fantasy assets and multiple top players at their positions.
Even the “busts” like Harrison and Odunze are still oozing with potential but didn't produce enough in their rookie season. To me, this class easily qualifies as an A.
2023
1. Bijan Robinson - A+
2. Jahmyr Gibbs - A+
3. Jaxon Smith-Njigba - A
4. Jordan Addison - B
5. Quentin Johnston - D-
6. Zay Flowers - B
7. C.J. Stroud - C+
8. Anthony Richardson - D
9. Zach Charbonnet - D+
10. Bryce Young - C
Overall Grade: B
The 2023 rookie class has some very volatile members. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young have all dealt with significant value changes this year. Smith-Njigba had a poor rookie year, recording 63 receptions for 628 yards. Good enough to finish WR48. This year, he nearly doubled his totals. Putting up 100 receptions for 1,130 yards and finished as the WR9.
Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs finished in the top three in the year and are the two best running backs in fantasy football. Jordan Addison and Zay Flowers have had similar careers so far in terms of production. Flowers has more catches and yards, but Addison has more touchdowns. Flowers finished as the WR31 and WR25, while Addison finished as the WR23 and WR21.
Quentin Johnston has failed to live up to expectations. Only catching 38 passes for 431 yards as a rookie, there were still expectations heading into year two. There were flashes in the pan, like his two touchdown performance in week two, or his WR8 finish in week nine, but he failed to become a reliable fantasy producer. Zach Charbonnet has done well when he's played but has been stuck playing second fiddle to Kenneth Walker III, limiting his fantasy potential.
As for the quarterbacks, the trio of C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, and Bryce Young have all seen mountains and valleys in their young careers. Richardson and Stroud had solid rookie campaigns, albeit Richardson’s was shortened due to injury. Richardson and Young were both benched last year due to poor performance. Both reclaimed their starting jobs, and Young has seemingly solidified his position as starting quarterback.
This class is still very young, and a lot can change next year that ultimately makes this class incredible or meh, so it'll be interesting to watch them next season. Overall, the class is underwhelming. Robinson, Gibbs, and Smith-Njigba really carry the weight. There isn't a player with a top-ten fantasy finish outside the top three picks. There's still hope, but it looks like this draft will disappoint.
2022
1. Breece Hall - B
2. Drake London - A-
3. Kenneth Walker - B-
4. Treylon Burks - F
5. Jameson Williams - C-
6. Chris Olave - B-
7. Skyy Moore - F
8. George Pickens - D+
9. Christian Watson - D-
10. James Cook - A-
Overall Grade: B-
The 2022 draft class is full of “what ifs.”. From a skill perspective, there's plenty of talent. Breece Hall looked like a top-three back after his breakout 2023 season, where he finished as the RB2. However, an injury-shortened rookie year and regressing in basically every stat in 2024 have led to people wishing for more.
Chris Olave and Kenneth Walker are good players; both produced at least one top-20 finish for their positions. However, injuries have severely limited their production. George Pickens is stuck in a terrible offense with worse quarterback play, which is why his best season resulted in a WR30 finish. There are some definite busts in Treylon Burks and Skyy Moore, neither of which produced a WR70 or better finish.
Christian Watson has also seemed to enter “bust” status. Despite playing the most games(15) and recording the most receiving yards(620) of his career in 2024, Watson also put up a meager 29 receptions on 53 targets and two touchdowns. Jameson Williams didn't do much in his first two seasons, but a year three breakout was exciting and saved him from being a bust.
This class still has a lot of potential to be excellent. Hall, Walker, Olave, Williams, and Pickens can quickly improve their grades. However, their results have been disappointing compared to their potential and fantasy value.
2021
1. Najee Harris - C-
2. Kyle Pitts - D+
3. Javonte Williams - F
4. Ja’Marr Chase - A+
5. Trevor Lawrence - C
6. Trey Lance - F
7. Justin Fields - D+
8. DeVonta Smith - B-
9. Trey Sermon - F
10. Jaylen Waddle - B
Overall Grade: C-
The 2021 draft class has been a weak one. Najee Harris went first overall and had a great rookie season, finishing as the RB3. Since then, he hasn't finished higher than RB14. His rushing stats dropped slightly, but he still records 1,000 rushing yards with around seven touchdowns yearly. His receiving stats fell off significantly. He recorded 74 receptions in 2021; since then, his highest total was 41.
Like Harris, Kyle Pitts’ best season was his rookie season. Pitts recorded 68 receptions for 1,026 yards en route to a TE6 finish. Unfortunately, Pitts’ highest totals since then are 53 receptions for 667 yards, which is good enough for a TE13 finish. Javonte Williams hasn't finished better than RB17 in his entire career, and his efficiency has dropped since his ACL tear in 2022.
Ja’Marr Chase is the only superstar from this class and is one of the best receivers in fantasy football. He just finished last season as the WR1. Trey Lance and Trey Sermon were both huge busts, with neither being able to carve out starting roles or produce in any meaningful way. Justin Fields was a boom-or-bust player as a starter but was never a consistent fantasy asset aside from his 2022 season. Trevor Lawrence had a pretty good sophomore season, finishing as the QB8.
He took a step back last year, finishing as QB13. After a slow first month in 2024, Lawrence looked like a man on a mission. Between weeks 5 and 9, Lawrence finished QB10 or better thrice. Unfortunately, injuries derailed the rest of his season. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle have had top-ten and top-20 seasons over their four-year careers.
Waddle received a lower grade due to his poor results over the last two seasons, in which he finished as the WR34 and WR46. 2021 was the first draft on this list to have more misses than hits, with half the first-round picks producing little to no fantasy value.
2020
1. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - F
2. Jonathan Taylor - A
3. Jerry Jeudy - D
4. D’Andre Swift - C
5. J.K. Dobbins - F
6. CeeDee Lamb - A+
7. Cam Akers - F
8. Justin Jefferson - A+
9. Henry Ruggs III - F
10. Jalen Reagor - F
Overall Grade: D+
The 2020 draft class was extremely hit or miss. Most of the class failed to live up to expectations. J.K. Dobbins and Cam Akers can at least use their injuries to excuse their poor performance. Henry Ruggs was having a decent sophomore season, putting up 469 receiving yards over the season's first seven games. We know the rest of his story(potential 2027 breakout candidate, anyone?).
Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jalen Reagor were just plain busts. D’Andre Swift hasn't been bad; his worst season was in 2022 when he finished as RB21. But he was never that good either; Swift’s best season was in 2021 when he finished as RB15. Swift wasn't quite a bust, but he hasn’t produced at the level people would’ve expected as the fourth pick.
CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson are two of the best receivers in football and have multiple top-five seasons. Jonathan Taylor was a league winner in his first two seasons, finishing as RB6 and RB1. After two seasons limited to injuries, Taylor bounced back in 2024, where he finished as the RB12. A 30% chance of a superstar sounds nice, but when the other 70% is full of disappointments, it brings down the value of the class as a whole.
2019
1. Josh Jacobs - A
2. David Montgomery - C+
3. Kyler Murray - A-
4. Miles Sanders - D+
5. Darrell Henderson - F
6. N’Keal Harry - F
7. D.K. Metcalf - A-
8. A.J. Brown - A+
9. Devin Singletary - D
10. Parris Campbell - F
Overall Grade: B
The 2019 draft brought multiple stars into the league. Josh Jacobs has three RB10 or better finishes, including an RB3 finish in 2022. David Montgomery met expectations in year two, finishing as the RB4. Since then, his best season was an RB17 finish. He's been a reliable fantasy asset but hasn't entirely met the owners' expectations when drafting him.
Kyler Murray has four top-ten finishes in his career and is one of the seemingly few success stories of quarterbacks taken in the first round. D.K. Metcalf and A.J. Brown have continued the streak of good receivers taken late in the round. Brown has been a step above Metcalf, but owners of both should be happy with their pick.
There are still busts in this draft; who else thought N’Keal Harry would be the next big thing? Darrell Henderson and Parris Campbell also amounted to nothing. Miles Sanders had two good seasons, finishing as RB14 and RB15, but hasn't done anything significant outside of that.
This class had fewer busts than in 2020 and 2021, and while the hits aren't as great as those years(no clear-cut top-five players for their position aside from A.J. Brown), they're still stars in the league.
2018
1. Saquon Barkley - A+
2. Royce Freeman - F
3. Sony Michel - D
4. Kerryon Johnson - F
5. Derrius Guice - F
6. D.J. Moore - A-
7. Rashaad Penny - F
8. Ronald Jones II - D-
9. Nick Chubb - A+
10. Calvin Ridley - C
Overall Grade: D
The 2018 draft class is likely the worst on the list. Most players drafted in the first round did little to nothing during their careers. Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb have multiple top-ten seasons and are easy A+ grades. D.J. Moore is also a good player in this class—multiple WR20 or better finishes, including finishing as WR6 in 2023.
Calvin Ridley is a curious player to grade. Ridley had a third-year breakout in 2020, finishing WR5. He then missed a lot of 2021 after stepping away from football to focus on mental health. He was suspended for the 2022 season because of gambling. Since returning, Ridley has finished as WR18 and WR28. Ultimately, even if you think Ridley deserves a higher grade, the class is still pretty weak.
2017
1. Leonard Fournette - C
2. Christian McCaffery - A+
3. Corey Davis - F
4. Joe Mixon - A+
5. Dalvin Cook - A+
6. Mike Williams - D
7. John Ross - F
8. Samaje Perine - F
9. O.J. Howard - F
10. Alvin Kamara - A+
Overall Grade: B
The 2017 draft class brought the league a new era of running backs. Alvin Kamara has six top-ten seasons under his belt. Joe Mixon has four. Dalvin Cook only has three RB11 or better finishes, but an RB6 finish in 2019 and an RB2 finish in 2020 made him one of the best running backs in fantasy football. Leonard Fournette had three RB12 or better seasons, including an RB7 finish in 2019 and an RB6 finish in 2021.
But he didn't do much outside of those years, and considering the strength of the rest of the class, his grade dropped. Then there’s Christian McCaffery, who had four seasons where he was RB1 or RB2. The rest of the class is pretty disappointing. Mike Williams was the only player to have any real fantasy significance. Either way, a 40% chance of a top-tier running back makes the class pretty good.
2016
1. Ezekiel Elliot - A+
2. Corey Coleman - F
3. Laquon Treadwell - F
4. Josh Doctson - F
5. Sterling Shepard - D
6. Derrick Henry - A+
7. Michael Thomas - A+
8. Kenneth Dixon - F
9. Tyler Boyd - C+
10. Will Fuller - D
Overall Grade - C-
Like most of these draft classes, 2016 had many busts. Kenneth Dixon, Josh Doctson, Laquon Treadwell, and Corey Coleman were all duds. Will Fuller and Sterling Shepard had a little success, but not enough to be fantasy-relevant. The success stories are pretty impressive. Derrick Henry has four top-five finishes over his career. Ezekiel Elliot had three top-five finishes and five top-ten finishes.
Michael Thomas had four great years to start his career. After an impressive rookie season in which he recorded 92 receptions for 1,137 yards, Thomas finished the next three seasons as WR5, WR6, and WR1. Unfortunately, Thomas only played 20 more games after that season and is out of the league. Like the 2020 class, you had a good chance of missing on your pick. But if you hit, you got an excellent player.
2015
1. Todd Gurley - A+
2. Amari Cooper - A-
3. Melvin Gordon - B+
4. TJ Yeldon - D+
5. DeVante Parker - D
6. Tevin Coleman - C-
7. Ameer Abdullah - F
8. Nelson Agholor - D-
9. Dorial Green-Beckham - F
10. Breshad Perriman - F
Overall Grade: D+
The 2015 draft class was top-heavy. Todd Gurley was a league winner in his prime. Amari Cooper had four top-15 seasons and seven WR20 or better finishes. Melvin Gordon had three top-ten finishes between 2016 and 2018 and was still a reliable option from 2019 to 2021. After those three, the class lacks any value. TJ Yeldon had a decent rookie and sophomore season and finished as RB22 in 2018.
Devante Parker had a WR11 finish in 2019; that was the only good season he had for fantasy. Tevin Coleman had a decent three-year stretch between 2016 and 2018 but didn’t do much outside that. The rest of the class didn’t do anything productive.
Grade Totals
A: 30 (30%)
B: 10 (10%)
C: 12 (12%)
D: 18 (18%)
F: 30 (30%)
Picks 1-3
A: 13 (43%)
B: 3 (10%)
C: 5 (17%)
D: 4 (13%)
F: 8 (27%)
The percentages were rounded, so the total isn't 100%.
Picks 4-6
A: 8 (27%)
B: 4 (13%)
C: 4 (13%)
D: 6 (20%)
F: 11 (37%)
Picks 7-10
A: 9 (23%)
B: 3 (8%)
C: 4 (10%)
D: 9 (23%)
F: 15 (38%)
Best Class: 2024 (A)
Worst Class: 2018 (D)
Synopsis
After reviewing the last decade of rookie drafts, it’s easy to understand why there’s such a drastic difference in how people value picks. The first three picks have the highest cost but the highest hit rate, with 53% of picks graded A or B. The mid-round picks seem to be the worst value, considering they only have a slightly better hit rate than late-round picks.
The 2024 class was the best, but they also have an advantage, considering their stories aren't written yet. 2018 was the worst class of the last decade. Only three players from that first round were good picks. Every class had at least one superstar.
Ultimately, draft picks will always be valued differently. People’s thoughts on risk vs. reward will always be different. There's no right or wrong way to view draft picks. There's one thing for sure: draft picks are always one of the most interesting assets in fantasy football.