Over the past couple years, I have dedicated several hundred hours to properly analyzing data and advanced metrics in order to determine what correlates with NFL success for Wide Receiver prospects and how to accurately predict prospect success.
The comprehensive model I developed evaluates each prospect through a quantifiable assessment of numerous variables, each metric being thoroughly analyzed and weighted based on its significance and correlation to NFL success. The model includes multiple composite scores that play a pivotal role in determining a prospect's overall grade, each composite score being derived from a distinct set of weighted metrics.
Model Composite Scores and Weighted Metrics
Productivity Score: Evaluates a prospect's overall college production which accounts for both total production and per-game production.
Efficiency Score: Measures a player's overall effectiveness and per-route efficiency using a set of advanced Per-Route-Run metrics such as Yards (YPRR), First Down (FDPRR), Touchdown (TDPRR), and Quarterback Rating (QBR) when targeted
Film Score: Accounts for quantifiable film grades such as PFF Grade, WAR (Wins Above Replacement), consensus rankings, and compiling evaluations from multiple trusted scouting sources in order to generate a quantifiable film score.
Athletic Score: Quantifies a prospect's athletic testing measurables to gauge their physical traits and overall athleticism relative to NFL standards.
Checklist Score: An assessment of how a prospect measures up against key metric thresholds based on historical data, identifying traits and benchmarks that have been indicative of success for NFL wide receivers. Essentially, quantifying how a prospect "checks off all the boxes" which include size, athletic measurements, productivity, advanced metrics, etc.
Prospect Profile Breakdown
Grades/Scores: A visual representation of how a prospect measured up in the various composite scores and overall prospect grade.
Color Scale: A simple gradient-based scale indicating different performance levels. Green represents the strongest performance while the scale transitions through yellow, orange, and red for lesser outputs.
Player Comparison Card: Provides two player comps - a high-end comp and a low-end comp - based on a prospect's playstyle, college production, athletic testing, size, and other additional advanced metrics.
Scatter Plot: A visual representation of the relationship between two key metrics (e.g., Deep Threat Score vs YAC Score and Production vs Efficiency) stacked up relatively with the entire 2025 Draft Class. The orange marker indicates where the prospect ranks among the draft class.
Side-By-Side Advanced Metrics Bar Charts: Visually compares a prospect’s performance in key advanced metrics alongside their class ranking for each category.
Donut Charts: Depicts the prospect’s performance in a given metric relatively. The filled portion of the chart represents the prospect’s standing—for example, a 70% completion rate would result in 70% of the donut being filled.
Pos. Rank (Class): Prospect ranking relative to 2025 WR Class (33 prospects)
Pos. Rank (Ovr): Prospect ranking relative to all WR prospects included in model data set dating back to 2019 (174 prospects)
Analytical Prospect Profiles (10-6)
Xavier Restrepo - Miami
(WR10)
Xavier Restrepo is a talented, well-rounded slot receiver that excels as a deep threat and in contested catch situations. 1,759 of his 2,854 career yards can from air yards, ranking 6th in total air yards among the 2025 class. His 72% catch rate also places him close to the top of the class and has only 9 drops on 278 career targets.
Darnell Mooney is the style of player I see Restrepo becoming if he ever secures a starting job. Mooney has a career wide-slot split of 54-44, a similar split I think Restrepo can achieve despite playing primarily in the slot in college.
Tez Johnson - Oregon
(WR9)
Tez Johnson is one of the most polarizing prospects from this year's WR class. A fan favorite both for his on the field performance and his inspiring story off the field. Despite Nix’s departure, Johnson's performance did not take a hit. While his yards per game did drop from 84 to 75, Johnson accounted for a higher percentage of the team’s passing production this year.
There are several things working against Johnson as a prospect, most notably his size (sub-170 lb) and his age (will be 23 a couple weeks after the draft). The two same red flags that were on Tank Dell’s profile, despite a stellar college career. You’re going to see that comp a lot this draft season, but it’s not something to disregard - both players have a very similar analytical and production profile. While Johnson played in 62 games compared to Dell’s 35, both players ran a similar amount of routes in college (~1,300) while putting up similar stats.
Tez put up 3,889 yards and 28 touchdowns compared to Tank’s 3,155 yards and 32 touchdowns. One thing that stands out in favor of Tez: his 2.93 career YPRR, good for 2nd best in the draft class, only behind Tre Harris’ 3.00. While Tez may not have the ceiling of a Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, he has one of the highest floors in the draft class (that being a damn good receiver).
Pat Bryant - Illinois
(WR8)
Pat Bryant is a big-bodied outside receiver with a prototype build, standing at 6'3" and 200 lb. Bryant's analytical profile suggests he has the potential to be a very good field-stretching big-play threat. One of the best things you want to see from a receiver prospect is their ability to beat both zone and man.
Bryant ranks 4th in YPRR vs Zone and 5th in YPRR vs Man. Bryant's 10.68 air yards per reception ranks 4th in the class, highlighting his ability to make plays downfield. Beyond that, he's shown he has strong hands in traffic with a 51.3% contested catch rate, making him a reliable option for QBs in tight coverage.
Jalen Royals - Utah State
(WR7)
Jalen Royals is a YAC-centric outside receiver with elite contested-catch ability. Royals ranks at the top of the class with a 60% contested catch rate. He has a solid drop rate under 5% on 184 targets and has an impressive 26.4% avoided tackle rate, one of the highest among outsider receivers.
His 2.42 YPRR ranks top 10 in the class and clears all necessary thresholds for YPRR metrics, though he is on the lower end for what you'd like to see from YPRR vs Zone. Royals is a complete receiver and one of the most reliable in the class. Shakir is the perfect comp for him and the type of player I see him become, albeit a possibly limited ceiling.
Dont'e Thornton Jr - Tennessee
(WR6)
Thornton is an explosive athlete with one of the highest ceilings in the draft class. Here's something I've never seen before - Thorton ranks 1st in both Air Yards Per Rec and YAC per Rec. A lot of that can be attributed to Tennessee's playstyle, which raises simliar concerns to those that surrounded Jalin Hyatt, who has struggled to translate his success to the NFL with the Giants.
Tennessee's up-tempo, spread offense has shredded college defenses but has not consistently produced NFL-ready receivers. A big concern with Thornton is that he benefited from free releases and did not run a full NFL route tree. While that may be true, it's hard not to be impressed with Thornton's advanced metrics.
One of the most important traits in a WR prospect is their ability to produce against zone. Thornton ranks 2nd in YPRR vs Zone, 2nd in QBR when targeted, 3rd against YPRR vs Man, and 4th in overall YPRR.