Synopsis
Over the past couple of years, I have dedicated several hundred hours to properly analyzing data and advanced metrics in order to determine what correlates with NFL success for draft prospects and how to accurately predict prospect success.
The comprehensive model I developed evaluates each prospect through a quantifiable assessment of numerous variables, each metric being thoroughly analyzed and weighted based on its significance and correlation to NFL success.
The model includes multiple composite scores that play a pivotal role in determining a prospect’s overall grade, each composite score being derived from a distinct set of weighted metrics.
Model Composite Scores and Weighted Metrics
Productivity Score: Evaluates a prospect’s overall college production, which accounts for total production and per-game production.
Efficiency Score: Measures a player’s overall effectiveness and per-play efficiency using a set of advanced Per-Play metrics such as Yards Per Route Run (YPRR), % of carries resulting in a First Down, % of runs resulting in a breakaway or explosive play, etc.
Elusiveness Score: Evaluates a prospect’s ability to evade defenders and elude/break tackles, accounting for key metrics such as tackles avoided and yards after contact.
Explosiveness Score: Quantifies a prospect’s big-play capability by measuring key metrics such as breakaway attempts (20+ yards) and explosive attempts (10+ yards), which highlights their ability to generate chunk gains.
Film Score: Accounts for quantifiable film grades such as PFF Grade, WAR (Wins Above Replacement), consensus rankings, and compiling evaluations from multiple trusted scouting sources in order to generate a quantifiable film score.
Athletic Score: Quantifies a prospect’s athletic testing measurables to gauge their physical traits and overall athleticism relative to NFL standards.
Checklist Score: An assessment of how a prospect measures up against key metric thresholds based on historical data, identifying traits and benchmarks that have been indicative of success in the NFL. Essentially, measuring how a prospect “checks off all the boxes” which include size, athletic measurements, productivity, advanced metrics, etc.
Prospect Profile Breakdown
Grades/Scores: A visual representation of how a prospect measured up in the various composite scores and overall prospect grade.
Color Scale: A simple gradient-based scale indicating different performance levels. Green represents the strongest performance, while the scale transitions through yellow, orange, and red for lesser outputs.
Badges: Attribute badges are assigned to prospects to highlight their standout traits or best-performing metrics. Functions as a quick reference to their notable strengths.
Player Comparison Card: Provides two player comps - a high-end comp and a low-end comp - based on a prospect’s playstyle, college production, athletic testing, size, and other additional advanced metrics.
Scatter Plot: A visual representation of the relationship between two key metrics (e.g., Elusiveness vs Explosiveness and Rushing Score vs Receiving Score) stacked up relatively with the entire 2025 Draft Class. The orange marker indicates where the prospect ranks among the draft class.
Side-By-Side Advanced Metrics Bar Charts: Visually compares a prospect’s performance in key advanced metrics alongside their class ranking for each category.
Donut Charts: Depicts the prospect’s performance in a given metric relatively. The filled portion of the chart represents the prospect’s standing relative to the top performer in that metric—for example, 50% of Yards gained after contact (YCO) would result in 62.5% of the donut being filled (top performer being around 80% YCO).
Analytical Prospect Rankings
Devin Neal - KU
(RB10)
Devin Neal is a productive, big-play running back with a well-rounded analytical profile. His 6.81 prospect grade ranks him among the top 10 of this year’s stacked RB class. Neal excels as a rusher, ranking among the best in the class with strong supporting metrics.
However, his 3.58 receiving score indicates there’s still room for development. While he’s a highly productive, durable, and effective runner with solid explosiveness and elusiveness, his limited receiving upside may prevent him from becoming a three-down back in the NFL.
I view Neal as a likely Day 2 or early Day 3 pick, and profiles as a solid committee back with workhorse upside in the right system.
Strengths
Neal’s 6.92 rushing score is among the highest in the entire draft class, backed by his 4,340 career rushing yards (Rank: 3) and 49 touchdowns (Rank: 2). His 759 career carries (Rank: 1) highlight his ability to handle a full workload.
His 15.15% explosiveness rate ranks highly in this year’s RB class, demonstrating his ability to generate chunk gains.
Neal ranks 3rd in total yards after contact while ranking 17th in YCO per carry (3.33).
Neal’s 7.11 Elusiveness Score is bolstered by his 24.22% avoided tackle rate.
Breakaway Threat: His 8.04% breakaway rate indicates an ability to generate chunk plays, though not elite.
First-Down Machine: Neal has converted 211 first downs (Rank: 4), making him a reliable chain-mover.
Weaknesses
Receiving Limitations: As mentioned, Neal needs to develop in the passing game if he wants to become a more well-rounded threat. Despite his 723 career receiving yards (Rank: 6), his 0.97 yards per route run (YPRR) ranks 12th, showing inefficiency in route running.
Lack of Elite Burst: Compared to elite backs, his explosiveness and breakaway rates are solid but not exceptional.
Sub-par Tackle-Breaking Ability: Neal’s yards-after-contact efficiency metrics indicate room for improvement, as his YCO/carry places him in a historically mediocre tier of backs. His 58.20% of yards coming after contact is far below some of the elite backs in this class, who are closer to 70%.
No Standout Skills: Neal doesn’t appear to have any single traits that stand out among his peers. Overall, he’s a well-balanced runner with some big-play ability, as indicated by his breakaway and explosive run rates, though neither are elite. Neal’s analytical profile suggests he’s a high-floor back who can handle a heavy rushing workload but might not have high-end potential or can contribute significantly in the passing game.
Player Comparison
High-End Comp: J.K. Dobbins – Similar rushing efficiency and balance through contact but with a bit less explosiveness.
Low-End Comp: DeWayne McBride – Productive in a spread system but limited receiving profile.
Jordan James - ORE
(RB9)
Jordan James is a reliable, chain-moving back with a solid rushing profile. Similar to Neal, James’ profile suggests a limited receiving upside. His 6.86 prospect grade places him in the top 10 of this year’s RB class. James excelled in two key metrics: converting first downs on 38% of his career carries and having zero fumbles for his entire collegiate career.
Maintaining flawless ball security with zero fumbles on over 400 touches is an impressive feat. His 2.88 receiving score is a bit disappointing, but we’ve seen backs in past drafts improve mightily as receivers in the NFL and his skill set suggests he can excel in the open space.
Strengths
James efficiency as a rusher is supported by 2,223 career rushing yards (Rank: 19) and 31 touchdowns (Rank: 11).
Age is a crucial factor when evaluating running back prospects, and James stands out in this regard. At just 20 years old, he will still be only 21 on draft day, giving him a desirable age-adjusted profile.
Standing at 5’10” and 209 lbs, he profiles as a workhorse back with strong rushing efficiency. James’ 24.77% avoided tackle rate shows he can create yards after contact.
His 38.34% first-down rate showcases his reliability in short-yardage situations.
While he may not have game-breaking athleticism or high receiving upside, his durability and reliability make him a strong candidate for early-down and short-yardage work. If he improves his pass-catching ability, he can be a back that isn’t just limited to a specialized role in the NFL.
Weaknesses
While James has the capability to break off chunk gains, indicated by his 17.10 explosive run rate, his profile suggests he may lack homerun ability with only a 6.48% breakaway rate, ranking in the bottom half of the class.
As mentioned previously, James lacks in receiving metrics and his 0.95 YPRR (Rank: 13) and 106 career receptions (Rank: 21) indicate minimal impact as a receiver.
James’ 3.32 YCO/carry (Rank: 18) is mediocre and implies inconsistency in fighting through contact.
Player Comparison
High-End Comp: D’Andre Swift – Similar size and tackle-breaking ability, though James lacks Swift’s receiving upside.
Low-End Comp: Anthony McFarland Jr. – A depth RB with occasional big-play ability but limited passing-down value.
Cam Skattebo - ASU
(RB8)
Cam Skattebo is an ultra-physical, tackle-breaking runner with excellent receiving metrics. He offers a rare blend of power-runner and receiving threat, giving him high-upside as a three-down workhorse back. His 7.46 elusiveness score and 6.96 receiving score make him one of the most well-rounded backs in the class, although he lacks in explosiveness and big-play metrics.
While Skattebo has one of the most impressive analytical profiles in the class, his ranking takes a significant hit when factoring in his age, late breakout, and level of competition. If he finds himself with Day 2 or higher draft capital, he could become one of the most coveted backs in dynasty circles.
Strengths
Skattebo is a tackle-breaking machine. highlighted by his 34.60% avoided tackle rate, which ranks among the best in the class and indicates elite contact balance.
His 6.96 receiving score ranks atop the class by a significant margin and is bolstered by his exceptional 1.61 YPRR (Rank: 1) and 829 Rec Yards (Rank: 3).
Skattebo ranks near the top of the class in both First-Down (33.62%) and Avoided Rate (34.60%) to pair with his impressive Yards-After-Contact numbers.
His 3.70 YCO/carry is indicative of a strong effectiveness to fight through contact.
Weaknesses
Possibly the most glaring flawed metric for Skattebo is his low breakaway rate (5.90%) and explosive run rate (14.41%), both of which rank in the bottom half of the class. While he’s tough as nails and fights like hell through tackles, his lack of explosiveness might turn a lot of teams away.
While we don’t have his athletic measurables yet, his metrics do suggest he might be a below-average athlete and might rely too much on his tackle-breaking ability.
Skattebo’s age is one of the biggest concerns in his analytical profile and has an extremely high historical correlation rate to NFL success among RBs. The historical drop-off from 21 to 22 is significant and being 23 years old would make him an outlier in terms of successfully transitioning to the NFL.
Among 23+ year-old prospects, Najee Harris is the most successful by a significant margin, backed by first-round draft capital and a heavy workload.
Other successful 23-year-old rookie running backs from the last few years include: Brian Robinson Jr., Rachaad White, Chase Brown, Tyrone Tracy, Pacheco, and Rhamondre Stevenson. Among these backs, they have 4 RB1 seasons out of 20 combined seasons. 3 of the 4 RB1 seasons were followed by significant statistical drop-offs (Chase Brown having the 4th, pending his follow-up season.
While older backs have found success in the NFL, they often have capped ceilings, tend to be inefficient, and rely on a high workload, which is difficult to sustain. Beyond that, only 20% of the 23+ year-old prospects went on to see 200+ opportunities in a single season.
Skattebo most certainly does have an impressive analytical profile and his only real red flag is his age.
Player Comparison
High-End Comp: David Montgomery – Similar tackle-breaking ability and well-rounded skill set but lacks elite burst.
Low-End Comp: DeeJay Dallas – A capable pass-catcher with solid power but limited long speed.
Omarion Hampton - UNC
(RB7)
Possibly the biggest surprise of these rankings, Omarion Hampton is a physical, workhorse-style back with one of the most impressive analytical profiles in the class. However, his overall grade is slightly diminished by his average level of competition and, to a lesser extent, his age.
His 7.37 prospect grade still places him in a good tier of backs with legitimate upside as an every-down starter. Hampton’s 7.71 elusiveness score and 6.48 rushing score highlight his ability to churn out yards effectively, while his 3.96 receiving score suggests he may have some untapped potential in the passing game.
Strengths
High-End Rushing Profile: Hampton’s 3,563 career rushing yards (Rank: 7) and 624 career carries highlight his durability and potential to handle a high workload.
Strong Contact Balance: 2,505 YCO (Rank: 4) and 4.01 YCO/carry (Rank: 3) make him one of the toughest backs to bring down in the draft.
To pair with his 4.01 YCO/Carry, Hampton’s 70.31% of yards coming after contact places him near the top of the class and pairs well with his 26.87 Avoided Tackle Rate and 7.85% Breakaway Run Rate.
Hampton’s 29.33% first-down rate and 183 career first downs (Rank: 7) on 624 career carries showcases his short-yardage reliability.
Weaknesses
Limited Receiving Usage: A 3.96 receiving score is below average, and his 0.97 YPRR (Rank: 10) suggests inefficiency as a receiver.
While it may seem unexpected that Hampton’s age is viewed as a drawback, historical data strongly suggests a decline in prospect success rates between 21 and 22 years old.
When comparing the top backs who entered the draft as 22-year-old prospects to those who entered at 21-years-old, the difference is apparent.
While still an impressive group, the top backs among 22-year-old prospects are: Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, James Cook, and Bucky Irving.
In comparison, the top backs among 21-year-old prospects are: Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs, Chubb, Taylor, Jacobs, Hall, Achane, and Kenneth Walker.
Going back further, we do have backs like Derrick Henry and Adrian Peterson, who entered the NFL as 22-year-olds and obviously went on to have elite careers. So this certainly isn’t to say the difference between 21 and 22 should completely plummet a prospect’s grade.
Player Comparison
High-End Comp: Josh Jacobs – Similar power running style with solid elusiveness but limited top-end speed.
Low-End Comp: Rashaad Penny – A productive, physical back with some injury concerns and receiving limitations.
Kaleb Johnson - IOWA
(RB6)
Kaleb Johnson is a dynamic, big-play running back who brings a balance between power, elusiveness, and home-run ability. His 7.40 prospect grade places him and Hampton in the tier 2 of running back prospects, along with four others who graded out similarly. Johnson’s analytical profile emphasizes his ability to fight through contact, elude tackles, and create field-flipping plays.
Strengths
Big-Play Threat: Johnson’s 8.66% Breakaway Run Rate places him near the top of the class, an impressive feat when factoring in his 6-foot, 225-pound frame.
Johnson brings balance as a runner when pairing his breakaway ability with his 27.56 avoided tackle rate and 3.68 YCO/carry.
67.39% of Johnson’s yardages came after contact and fumbled only 4 times on 508 career carries.
While his overall production profile isn’t near the top of the class, Johnson scored 30 touchdowns in his career, including 21 this past year.
Johnson is one of the rare prospects in this year’s class who has an exceptional blend of power and speed.
Weaknesses
Limited Receiving Production: A 2.50 receiving score is far below average, and has a subpar 0.90 YPRR (Rank: 14), making him a potential non-factor in the passing game.
Modest Production: Johnson’s 5.11 Production Score signals a prospect that doesn’t have a long history of being productive in college. Over 60% of Johnson’s college production came in 2024 after spending 3 years at Iowa.
We can mirror almost everything said about prospect age under Hampton with Johnson, who will be 22 before playing his first NFL snap. That said, Johnson is 5 months younger than Hampton, for whatever that’s worth.
While Johnson certainly has big-play ability, his 12.80 Explosive Run Rate does suggest room for improvement and indicates he’s better at breaking off long runs rather than consistently generating chunk gains. This concern is also illustrated in Johnson’s low first-down rate of 22.83%.
Player Comparison
High-End Comp: Nick Chubb – Similar big-play ability for a power-back with solid rushing efficiency but limited receiving upside.
Low-End Comp: Rashaad Penny – A big-bodied, athletic back who can produce as a rusher but has little to no impact as a receiver.
