Over the past couple of years, I have dedicated several hundred hours to properly analyzing data and advanced metrics in order to determine what correlates with NFL success for running back prospects and how to accurately predict prospect success. These metrics have helped create my top five, 2025 dynasty rookie RB rankings.
The comprehensive model I developed evaluates each prospect through a quantifiable assessment of numerous variables, with each metric thoroughly analyzed and weighted based on its significance and correlation to NFL success.
The model includes multiple composite scores that play a pivotal role in determining a prospect's overall grade, each composite score being derived from a distinct set of weighted metrics. I will provide the Top 5 rookie running back rankings based on the model grades.
Model Composite Scores and Weighted Metrics
Productivity Score: Evaluates a prospect's overall college production which accounts for both total production and per-game production.
Efficiency Score: Measures a player's overall effectiveness and per-route efficiency using a set of advanced Per-Route-Run metrics such as Yards (YPRR), First Down (FDPRR), Touchdown (TDPRR), and Quarterback Rating (QBR) when targeted
Film Score: Accounts for quantifiable film grades such as PFF Grade, WAR (Wins Above Replacement), consensus rankings, and compiling evaluations from multiple trusted scouting sources in order to generate a quantifiable film score.
Athletic Score: Quantifies a prospect's athletic testing measurables to gauge their physical traits and overall athleticism relative to NFL standards.
Checklist Score: An assessment of how a prospect measures up against key metric thresholds based on historical data, identifying traits and benchmarks that have been indicative of success for NFL wide receivers. Essentially, quantifying how a prospect "checks off all the boxes" which include size, athletic measurements, productivity, advanced metrics, etc.
Grades/Scores: A visual representation of how a prospect measured up in the various composite scores and overall prospect grade.
Color Scale: A simple gradient-based scale indicates different performance levels. Green represents the strongest performance, while yellow, orange, and red indicate progressively lower outputs.
Player Comparison Card: Provides two player comps - a high-end comp and a low-end comp - based on a prospect's playstyle, college production, athletic testing, size, and other additional advanced metrics.
Scatter Plot: A visual representation of the relationship between two key metrics (e.g., Deep Threat Score vs YAC Score and Production vs Efficiency) stacked up relatively with the entire 2025 Draft Class. The orange marker indicates where the prospect ranks among the draft class.
Side-By-Side Advanced Metrics Bar Charts: Visually compares a prospect’s performance in key advanced metrics alongside their class ranking for each category.
Donut Charts: Depicts the prospect’s performance in a given metric relatively. The filled portion of the chart represents the prospect’s standing—for example, a 70% completion rate would result in 70% of the donut being filled.
Pos. Rank (Class): Prospect ranking relative to 2025 RB Class (33 prospects)
Pos. Rank (Ovr): Prospect ranking relative to all RB prospects included in model data set dating back to 2019 (174 prospects)
Ollie Gordon - OSU
(RB5)
Ollie Gordon profiles as a well-balanced running back with strong collegiate production and efficiency metrics that translate well to the next level. Standing at 6’2”, 225 lbs, Gordon possesses impressive size and a skillset that projects him as a three-down back. With a prospect grade of 7.60, Gordon is firmly placed in Tier 2 of this year’s running back class, ranking 5th overall at the position.
Strengths
His 24.03% avoided tackle rate (above average) and Breakaway Rate (8.22%) indicate his ability to generate big plays while also having an ability to make defenders miss in space.
Gordon places above average in several key metrics such as Yards After Contact (YCO), First-Down Rate, and Explosive Run Rate, highlighting his well-rounded skillset.
Gordon ranks 4th in the class in receptions, making him a potential pass-catching threat from the backfield
Gordon will play his entire rookie season at the age of 21 years old, a key factor when evaluating running back prospects. More impressive was Gordon’s dominant 2023 season in which he put up 1,732 yards 22 touchdowns at only 19 years old.
High-End Player Comp: Najee Harris
Weaknesses
Gordon doesn’t seem to possess any key traits or standout in any advanced metric that separates him from the class which may concern fans when evaluating him against his peers
While Gordon’s 81 receptions ranks him 4th in the class, his 0.86 YPRR ranks 16th in the class and is below
average among running back prospects in the model, suggesting inefficiency as a receiver.
While Gordon has the capability to generate field-flipping plays, indicated by his 8.22 breakaway run rate, his profile suggests he may lack a consistent ability to break off chunk gains with only a 13.64% explosive run rate.
Low-End Player Comp: Gary Brightwell
Dylan Sampson - Tenn
(RB4)
Dylan Sampson profiles as an elusive, well-balanced runner with strong explosiveness. At 5’10”, 200 lbs, his play style and analytical profile compares favorably to De’Von Achane (high-end comp). Sampson’s overall Prospect Grade (7.61) places him among the top running backs in the class, ranking 4th overall and in Tier 2 at the position.
Strengths
Elusiveness & Tackle Avoidance: Sampson’s 28.51% avoided tackle rate highlights his ability to make defenders miss, a trait that supports his 6.55 Elusiveness Score (Class Rank: 4). His lateral agility and ability to slip through contact make him dangerous in space.
Explosiveness & Big Play Ability: Despite a modest 7.33% breakaway rate, Sampson's 15.60% explosiveness rate suggests strong burst and acceleration through open lanes. His 3.64 yards created per carry (Rank: 13th) shows he generates yardage independently of blocking.
While Sampson’s overall production profile is subpar, his 35 touchdowns rank Top-8 in the class while also placing him near the top in touchdowns per touchdown
Sampson will play his first NFL snap at just 20 years old, making his overall analytical profile even more impressive when adjusted for age.
High-End Player Comp: Devon Achane
Weaknesses
Limited Receiving Upside: Sampson’s 3.19 Receiving Score and 15.53% target rate (low-end for a modern dual-threat back) suggest minimal passing-game involvement. His 1.06 yards per route run (Rank: 9th) is serviceable but not a strength, suggesting room for development as a receiver.
While his overall elusiveness score is good, his 62% of yards coming after contact is middle of the pack and below where some of the top backs in this class are.
Low-End Player Comp: Kenneth Gainwell
Quinshon Judkins - OSU
(RB3)
TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins both enter the 2025 NFL Draft as top-tier running back prospects with strong production profiles, but very different styles. While both project as early contributors, each possessing upside to be a team's three-down back, their play styles and efficiency metrics present different strengths.
Strengths
Standing in at 6'0, 218 and only 21 years old, Judkins is a physical runner with short-area burst and quickness. Judkins ranks 3rd in the class with 219 first downs and 4th with 45 rushing touchdowns.
Judkins excelled in key metrics, posting a 26.50% avoided tackle rate, gaining 64.05% of his yards after contact, and converting 30% of his carries into first downs.
Balanced Skillset: Strong Elusiveness Score (7.18) and Explosiveness Score (6.62)show he’s more than just a power back.
Strong Ball Security: Judkins only fumbled the ball 3 times on 728 career attempts, Judkins comps favorably to Kenneth Walker, both of whom excelled as rushers in college with strong elusive ability, but showed room for development as passers
Weaknesses
Receiving Limitations: 421 receiving yards (Rank: 14) and a 0.73 YPRR (Rank: 18) suggest he might not be a natural pass-catching back. This may also stem from sharing a backfield with a strong receiving back like Henderson.
Breakaway Ability: Despite a strong workload, his Breakaway Rate (7.97%) is much lower than Henderson’s, showing more reliance on volume than efficiency.
Low-End Player Comp: Tyler Allgeier
TreVeyon Henderson - OSU
(RB2)
TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins both enter the 2025 NFL Draft as top-tier running back prospects with strong production profiles, but very different styles. While both project as early contributors, each possessing upside to be a team's three-down back, their play styles and efficiency metrics present different strengths.
Strengths
Henderson is smaller than Judkins, standing in at 5’10, 207 lbs (with some concerns that his listed weight may be generous). While he lacks Judkins’ physical running style, he makes up for it with elite speed and game-breaking explosiveness.
Henderson's explosiveness is on full display with his 17.65% Explosive Run Rate and 10.03 Breakaway Run Rate. Henderson is the only back in the draft that is above 10% in both explosive runs and breakaway runs.
Balanced Production Profile: Henderson's overall production profile is very impressive, where he ranks 5th in rushing yards (3,710), 6th in rushing touchdowns (42), and 2nd in receiving yards (850).
Strong Receiving Upside: His 850 career receiving yards (Rank: 2) and a 1.16 YPRR (Rank: 7) both suggest he can excel in a pass-catching role.
Strong Ball Securiy: Like Judkins, Henderson has superb ball security where he only fumbled 1 time on his 578 rushing attempts.
Henderson's high-end comp is Breece Hall, both possessing elite speed and explosiveness with strong receiving upside.
Weaknesses
Limited Tackle-Breaking Ability: Henderson’s 60.81% of yards after contact could raise concerns about his tackle-breaking ability compared to other backs in this class. His playstyle leans more on speed and explosiveness rather than power, which may make some teams hesitant to view him as a traditional workhorse back.
Henderson is currently 22 years old and will be 23 during the season. While it may seem unexpected that Henderson's age is viewed as a drawback, historical data strongly suggests a decline in prospect success rates between 21 and 22 years old. When comparing the top backs who entered the draft as 22-year-old prospects to those who entered at 21-years-old, the difference is apparent.
While still an impressive group, the top backs among 22-year-old prospects are: Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, James Cook, and Bucky Irving. In comparison, the top backs among 21-year-old prospects are: Saquon, Bijan, Gibbs, Chubb, Taylor, Jacobs, Hall, Achane, and Kenneth Walker.
Going back further, we do have backs like Derrick Henry and Adrian Peterson, who entered the NFL as 22-year-olds and obviously went on to have elite careers. So this certainly isn’t to say the difference between 21 and 22 should completely plummet a prospect’s grade. But Henderson's age may still suggest while he may not have graded out as high as his overall analytical profile suggests he could have.
Low-End Player Comp: Michael Carter
Ashton Jeanty - BSU
(RB1)
Ashton Jeanty enters the 2025 draft as the most statistically dominant running back in his class, supported by his 8.04 production grade. His 9.23 prospect grade leads the position, bolstered by his elite elusiveness (10.00) and top-tier rushing grade (8.55). Jeanty’s compact build, 5’9”, 216 lbs, profiles him as a workhorse, and his elite contact balance and burst metrics raises him several tiers above his peers.
This ranking should come as no surprise, as Jeanty is coming off one of the most statistically impressive seasons for a running back in college football history.
Strengths
Elite Tackle Breaker – 74.73% of Jeanty’s yards came after contact, ranking at the top of the class to pair with his class-leading 39.04% avoided tackle rate. Jeanty has elite tackle-breaking ability to the highest form and has the stats to back it up.
Jeanty also leads the class with 324 tackles avoided and 4.76 yards after contact per carry.
Elite Production Profile: Jeanty leads his class in rushing yards and total touchdowns, with 4,760 rushing yards and 50 touchdowns. Jeanty is one of the rare blends of elite production and elite advanced metrics in his analytical profile.
For a running back with elite contact balance, tackle breaking ability, and elusiveness, Jeanty does not lack in explosiveness or breakaway ability. Jeanty lead the class in both explosiveness runs and breakaway runs. His 16.58 explosive run rate and 9.36 breakaway run rate both rank near the top of the class.
High-Receiving Upside: In addition to the rest of his elite analytical profile, Jeanty is one of the best receiving backs in the class. His 1.60 YPRR ranks 2nd and 877 receiving yards rank 1st. Jeanty is truly is 1-of-1 and few prospects offer his level of versatility and dominance across nearly every aspect of the position.
High-End Player Comp: Jonathan Taylor
Weaknesses
Jeanty really only has two yellow-flags in his analytical profile, one of them being ball security. Jeanty leads the class with 10 fumbles on his 748 career carries
Jeanty’s level of competition is a legitimate concern and shouldn’t be overlooked—not just due to his strength of schedule, but also because elite NFL running backs rarely emerge from lower-level conferences. If he meets expectations and fulfills his potential, he’ll be one of the rare backs from a smaller program to thrive at a high level in the NFL.
Low-End Player Comp: Travis Etienne