Hello there! Welcome back to KTC: Over or Undervalued? Today, we're doing our first off-season edition! The NFL off-season will bring plenty of change, both in the actual NFL and on the fantasy side. We will look at players who are valued too high or too low. I will use KeepTradeCut to create the rankings, which I also base on 1QB leagues.
Overvalued
Kenneth Walker
(RB, SEA)
RB14/OVR48
Kenneth Walker has been a great player when healthy. But that's the issue; he can't seem to stay 100%. 2024 was Walker’s worst season. He finished as the RB27, only playing in 11 games. His efficiency stats have also declined yearly, going from 4.61 yards per carry as a rookie to 3.75.
Walker is a free agent in 2026, and while I don't believe the Seahawks would cut bait early, I can see them utilizing backup Zach Charbonnet more. Charbonnet was more efficient last year, averaging 4.21 yards per carry. He's also better in the passing game. Walker is not a bad player, but he's valued more than I believe he should be.
C.J. Stroud
(QB, HOU)
QB7/OVR66
C.J. Stroud is valued as a top-ten quarterback but hasn't performed like one. After finishing as QB11 in his rookie season, Stroud took a step back and finished as QB18 last year. He isn't an elite passer, as his career-high in touchdown passes is 23.
Stroud also doesn't have a significant rushing upside. He only had 233 rushing yards and zero touchdowns last year. Stroud can improve; he's only 23, after all. However, his ceiling would be around what his current value already is.
Honorable Mentions
I wouldn’t say these guys are severely overvalued, but I'm not acquiring them for their current market price.
Marvin Harrison Jr.
(WR, ARI)
WR10/OVR18
As said above, Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t grossly overvalued. I would prefer to have other guys ranked similarly. Harrison’s rookie season was disappointing for most people. He recorded 62 catches for 885 yards and eight touchdowns, which is pretty damn good for a rookie. However, he was expected to have a rookie season similar to that of Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson.
Harrison finished the season as WR30. I still expect him to grow, but I'd rather deal him and a very cheap asset and upgrade to someone like Nico Collins, who's very similarly valued and has already proven he is a top-tier talent.
David Montgomery
(RB, DET)
RB21/OVR80
David Montgomery is by no means a bad player. If he had not missed time, he would've finished as RB15 or better in the last two seasons. He's been part of a two-headed monster with Jahmyr Gibbs. So, how is he overvalued? My concern comes from two points.
Firstly, Gibbs flourished as the feature back when Montgomery was out. Considering Montgomery is also getting older (he turns 28 before the next season), I think the Lions could start using him less to preserve his health.
Secondly, I prefer to acquire players who have the backfield to themselves for similar value. Derrick Henry is slightly more valuable, Joe Mixon is the same value, and Alvin Kamara is marginally less valuable. All three options are also older running backs but have a higher ceiling.
Undervalued
Isiah Pacheco
(RB, KC)
RB27/OVR109
At the start of the season, Isiah Pacheco was valued as a top-ten running back. Now, he's outside the top 25. Much of this is because of a fractured fibula, which I believe he rushed back from. Pacheco wasn't himself when he came back. An entire off-season to recover should bring him back to 100% in time for the 2025 season.
There are definitely some risks with Pacheco. A fractured fibula is terrible news for running backs, and the Chiefs could look to draft a replacement. However, I think the risk is relatively small compared to the reward if Pacheco returns to his former self.
Jaylen Waddle
(WR, MIA)
WR27/OVR55
Tyreek Hill
(WR, MIA)
WR41/OVR92
Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill both underperformed last year. Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion was part of their failure, but even with Tagovailoa under center, both receivers couldn't get it done. I put them together because I think both receivers bounce back in 2025.
I also believe that many people are torn on Tyreek Hill from now on. Was 2024 a fluke or a sign of his decline? Hill is a clear buy now if you believe it was a fluke. If you think Hill will never be the WR1 he once was, Waddle is a clear buy now.
Rico Dowdle
(RB, DAL)
RB50/OVR178
Many people believe Rico Dowdle won’t be a starting running back in 2025, and I don’t fully understand why. He had a pretty solid 2024 season on a very disappointing Cowboys offense. Dowdle recorded 1,079 rushing yards on an efficient 4.59 yards per carry. That's pretty impressive, considering he wasn't the number-one option for most of the first six weeks. From Week 8 onward, Dowdle put up 833 yards on 4.7 yards per carry.
If he were to be a backup, I think he’s a good player at his current value, with the potential to make a good jump if he signs somewhere as their starter.
Tua Tagovailoa
(QB, MIA)
QB24/OVR164
Tua Tagovailoa had a rough year in 2024. He suffered a severe concussion and a hip injury that kept him out of six games. Despite missing a third of the season, Tagovailoa finished as the QB22. He also finished as the QB9 in 2023. There are reasons to like Tagovailoa going forward.
He led the league in completion percentage and was on pace to throw for over 4,000 yards and 29 touchdowns had he played an entire season. Those are very similar stats to his 2023 season. Tagovailoa likely won't play an entire season, but he's pretty cheap for a guy who can be a QB1 for most of it.
George Kittle
(TE, SF)
TE6/OVR89
George Kittle has been one of the best tight ends in the league since 2018, finishing as TE5 or better six times. However, his value hasn't been reflected, and he was even lower in the rankings at the start of this season. Much of this is due to his age, but we've seen enough tight ends provide value into their mid-thirties. I don't believe Kittle is a screaming buy, but he's a pretty good price for an extremely thin position.
Synopsis
That'll do it for this edition of KTC: Over or Undervalued! I honestly think the market is in a pretty solid position right now. There isn't a player that’s screaming buy or sell. Most of the buy lows and sell highs will be based on you, the reader, and your thoughts on what happens this offseason.
If you think Najee Harris signs as the RB1 somewhere, he's a good buy. If you think the Giants or Bengals draft a running back, Tyrone Tracy and Chase Brown are good sells. Making shrewd “educated guesses” helps set the good owners apart from the bad ones.