Week 20 has finally arrived, and with it marks the time when most playoff races are completely underway. Gone is the time of stashing for upside, and the time to get serious and focus solely on current production is now. Injuries that occur now are often going to impact the rest of the season, leaving tons of dark horse value sitting on the wire.
This article highlights three key adds that could have value going into this week, while also focusing on some strong drop candidates for those in need of immediate production.
Adds
Kel’el Ware
(Shallower Leagues)
Not much has changed for the Miami Heat since our waiver post last week, which saw Davion Mitchell featured as a beneficiary of the new-look Heat rotation. However, Kel’el Ware has continued to make a name for himself as a unique fantasy asset and now qualifies as a great add in even the shallowest of leagues.
Ware has a fantasy profile similar to that of a Temu Victor Wembanyama. He is a great shot blocker and has recorded 1.6 blocks a night over his last five games. He projects strongly as a traditional center, anchoring rebounds, field-goal percentage, and turnovers, but has also flashed upside as a floor spacer (he averages nearly a 3 a night over the last two months).
There have been some injury concerns of late (he missed his last three games at the time of writing this), but as of now he is trending toward being available. He plays four games in the upcoming week and has ranked as a top 80 player over the last two months (peaking in the top 35 in the last two weeks). Perhaps the best rookie this year from a fantasy perspective, he should be owned everywhere.
Kyle Filipowski
(Standard Leagues)
Utah Jazz players are more likely than not to feature on these kinds of lists one way or another. This week, Kyle Filipowski has established himself as a strong standard league add with his team forgoing any semblance of competition.
The rookie has taken a step forward as a well-rounded fantasy big man since he has become a regular fixture in the starting lineup. He is averaging 19 points a night over the last week while also dragging in nine boards, making him a consistent double-double threat. Filipowski has also excelled as an efficient floor spacer in that span, totaling 2.3 threes a game.
The Jazz are not above resting anybody they might feel will provide a chance at winning. With Lauri Markkanen and even Walker Kessler facing rest days at any given moment, Filipowski looks primed to provide top-100 value as a potential rest-of-season starter. He is ranked 73rd over the last week, with room to improve as he starts to find his feet.
Keon Ellis
(Deeper Leagues)
We focus on another beneficiary of some injury woes in Sacramento, as Keon Ellis has cemented himself as an elite fantasy option following the loss of Malik Monk. While Monk is questionable to return at any moment, Ellis can still prove to be a great deep league add regardless when given the minutes.
Ellis serves primarily as a stocks candidate, averaging 2.2 steals and 1.5 blocks a night over the last two weeks. This has basically been where the bulk of his fantasy value has been cemented, although the guard does also generate value in turnovers, free-throw percentage, and occasionally threes.
The defensive guard complements his teammates perfectly and functions as a low-usage, off-ball option in a team of volume scorers. He has played 28 minutes a night over the last two weeks, which has been more than enough to propel him into being a top-40 asset. While his time as a starter might be limited, he is still available in 75% of leagues, making him a great deep league add.
Drops
Cam Thomas
(Shallower Leagues)
Once again, we feature another Brooklyn Net as a prime drop candidate, this time the (debatable) franchise face in Cam Thomas. With a severe minutes limit and an inability to play back-to-backs due to a prior hamstring injury, an otherwise elite five-game week for the Nets will almost certainly be limited down to a maximum of three games.
Since his return, Thomas has actually been a positive in a few categories, using his 35% usage to bring home nearly 20 points a night with solid assist and free-throw value as well. However, as is always the case with the wing, he does not add much outside of scoring. As a result, he is a strong negative in at least four categories, which essentially cancels out any positive he might bring.
As is the case with any tough decision, there are some risk-reward benefits that have to be weighed when considering a drop on Thomas. He does have potential top-70 upside, but can he realize that upside when he is so heavily limited? I would say no, and his performance outside the top 200 since his return would make him a drop candidate in shallow leagues.
Jabari Smith Jr
(Standard Leagues)
Despite making his long-awaited return following a broken hand, Jabari Smith Jr. has once again remained a disappointment to both Houston Rockets fans and fantasy managers alike. The forward has gone so far as to lose his previously unshakeable starting spot, with coach Ime Udoka instead turning over the reins to the superior Tari Eason.
Smith has always been capable of providing crazy fantasy upside, showing flashes of excelling as a rebounding, floor-spacing power forward capable of generating defensive stats. Lately, however, he has only managed to remain a positive rebounder, turning in negative value in seven categories. These include strong negatives in categories he was previously strong in, as his block rate and free-throw rate have gone off a cliff.
With no sign of regaining his role, and the Rockets seemingly making a strong push going into the playoffs, it is hard to see Smith regain fantasy relevance from this point. He has ranked outside the top 300 (!) in the nine games since he has returned despite being owned in over 70% of leagues. Anybody in need of immediate production for playoffs can no longer justify holding onto the youngster and would be much better served with nearly anybody else on the wire.
Clint Capela
(Deeper Leagues)
The multi-season-long battle for the starting center spot in Atlanta has ended, with the Hawks now electing to use Onyeka Okongwu in place of longtime vet Clint Capela. Previously a late-round steal who could perform despite being in a timeshare, Capela is now a full-fledged backup with injury issues, making his value extremely limited to fantasy managers in all formats.
Capela used to excel as a high-rebounding, high-block player with a solid field-goal percentage. He still retains that profile for the most part (albeit lacking in the percentages now), but he is not able to produce enough volume to remain relevant in an 18-minute-a-night backup role. He is a strong negative in five categories while also barely eking out neutral value in two categories.
This has combined to make Capela the 224th ranked player over the last two months—a number that would be hard to justify in even the deepest of leagues. With no upside left unless he were to fill in as a spot starter, and no argument for his play on the court to demand a bigger role, it appears as though the many seasons Capela has spent as a roster lock are gone and can instead be replaced by the many high-upside dart throws left on the wire.