The debate over a player’s true value in fantasy football often comes down to two distinct perspectives. On the one hand, dynasty managers look toward the future—valuing youth, contract situations, and long-term potential.

 

 

On the other hand, performance analysts like Pro Football Focus (PFF) evaluate what players are doing on the field today. In this article, we break down how these two systems view nine key NFL running backs, comparing their 2025 dynasty rankings from KeepTradeCut (KTC) with their 2024 on-field performance metrics.

 

The Numbers at a Glance

 

Below is a table summarizing each player’s dynasty ranking, PFF run grade, and key 2024 season statistics:

 

 

A Tale of Two Evaluations

 

Dynasty Outlook (KTC 2025 Rankings)

 

KeepTradeCut’s dynasty rankings are built on a forward-looking premise: fantasy managers evaluate players not just by what they do today but by the promise of future production, stability, and long-term upside. Factors such as youth, contract situations, and projected role expansions weigh heavily in these rankings.

 

Jahmyr Gibbs, ranked #1, is lauded for his youth and versatility. At 22 years old, his combination of speed, breakaway ability, and prowess as a receiver makes him a cornerstone prospect. Bijan Robinson, ranked #2, is considered a generational talent. Dynasty managers expect him to be a long-term centerpiece in Atlanta’s offense.

 

 

Veterans like Saquon Barkley are rated lower (#4) because, despite their current production, concerns about age and mileage (Barkley is 28) reduce their long-term value. Derrick Henry, dominant on the field, is ranked only #18 because of his 31 years of age and heavy usage raise durability concerns.

 

James Conner’s ranking at #28 reflects that, even though he produces well on the field, his association with a struggling team (the Cardinals) and age-related factors lower his dynasty trade value.

 

Current Production (PFF 2024 Run Grades and Season Stats)

 

Pro Football Focus provides a granular analysis of what players are doing on the field this season. Their run grades (on a scale where a higher score denotes superior efficiency) capture each player’s ability to gain yards after contact, force missed tackles, and convert opportunities effectively.

 

Derrick Henry’s run grade of 93.1 reinforces that he remains the most dominant back on the field despite his age. Robinson’s grade of 92.8 confirms that his elite vision and ability to break tackles are translating into high production in Atlanta.

 

Jahmyr Gibbs earns a run grade of 90.7, indicating excellent per-play efficiency that, if expanded into more volume, could make him even more valuable. Josh Jacobs and James Conner both post impressive grades of 90.6, highlighting consistent production in their roles.

 

Kenneth Walker's grade of 91.2, though produced with lower overall yardage (573 yards over 11 games), reflects his efficiency and potential when given more opportunities. Breece Hall’s lower grade of 68.7 indicates that injuries and limited workload have significantly hampered his on-field impact this season.

 

 

 

In-Depth Player Analysis

 

Jahmyr Gibbs

Dynasty Value: #1 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 90.7

2024 Season: 1,517 rushing yards, 5.7 YPA

18 rushing TDs, 52 receptions for

517 yards in 17 games.

 

Gibbs is the benchmark for youthful potential. KTC ranks him #1 because his skill set—as a versatile runner and a dynamic receiver—positions him to become a centerpiece for the Detroit Lions.

 

His PFF run grade of 90.7 reflects high efficiency, with his 5.7 yards per attempt and 18 touchdowns underscoring his explosive ability. His grade with peers shows him near the top of the efficiency spectrum, even if he is still developing his pass-blocking skills.

 

Bijan Robinson

Dynasty Value: #2 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 92.8

2024 Season: 1,456 rushing yards, 4.8 YPA,

14 rushing TDs, 61 receptions for

431 yards in 17 games.

 

Robinson is unique in that both dynasty and performance analysts agree on his elite status. His run grade of 92.8, coupled with solid production, confirms that he is not only a future star but also a current playmaker.

 

 

Despite a slightly lower yards-per-attempt average compared to Gibbs, his vision and ability to break free for long gains make him indispensable. Gibbs and Robinson highlight their similar efficiency, with Robinson just edging out in run grade.

 

Saquon Barkley

Dynasty Value: #4 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 85.6

2024 Season: 2,005 rushing yards, 5.8 YPA

13 rushing TDs, 33 receptions for

278 yards in 16 games.

 

Barkley’s numbers are eye-catching—over 2,000 rushing yards and a really good 85.6 run grade—but his dynasty ranking is tempered by concerns over durability and age.

 

At 28, Barkley is still highly productive, yet his long-term value is seen as lower compared to the younger stars because his high workload may not be sustainable over many seasons. Despite his high performance, he falls lower in dynasty value due to his age compared to peers like Gibbs and Robinson.

 

De’Von Achane

Dynasty Value: #5 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 82.8

2024 Season: 907 rushing yards, 4.5 YPA

6 rushing TDs, 78 receptions for

592 yards in 17 games.

 

De’Von Achane is a high-upside asset whose value extends beyond his modest run grade. While his PFF run grade of 82.8 reflects solid, if unspectacular, efficiency in the rushing game, his overall production is bolstered by significant involvement in the receiving game.

 

This dual-threat capability is a key reason why dynasty managers rank him highly at #5 on KTC for 2025. Although he has yet to assume a larger role in Miami’s rushing attack, his consistent work as a pass-catcher suggests that his total volume could increase substantially.

 

 

Breece Hall

Dynasty Value: #6 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 68.7

2024 Season: 876 rushing yards, 4.2 YPA

5 rushing TDs, 57 receptions for

483 yards in 16 games.

 

Hall’s case is a cautionary tale. Despite being highly regarded in the dynasty market for his raw talent and future upside, his current production is hampered by an ACL tear and a limited role with the Jets. His run grade of 68.7 reflects these setbacks.

 

Hall trails significantly behind his peers, underlining that while his long-term potential is intact, his 2024 output was disappointing.

 

Derrick Henry

Dynasty Value: #18 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 93.1

2024 Season: 1,921 rushing yards, 5.9 YPA

16 rushing TDs, 19 receptions for

193 yards in 17 games.

 

Henry is the quintessential “win-now” asset. His 93.1 run grade and nearly 2,000 rushing yards prove that he is still the most dominant back on the field. However, dynasty managers discount him to #18 because his 31 years and high usage raise questions about longevity. Run grade against age clearly shows that while Henry is at the top in production, his age diminishes his dynasty trade value.

 

Josh Jacobs

Dynasty Value: #13 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 90.6

2024 Season: 1,329 rushing yards, 4.4 YPA

15 rushing TDs, 36 receptions for

342 yards in 17 games.

 

Jacobs is a model of reliability. His consistent production and high run grade (90.6) make him a dependable asset. Yet dynasty managers rank him lower because of contract concerns and the possibility that his role may be curtailed by team changes.

 

 

Rush attempts, touchdowns, and receptions show a balanced performance, reinforcing his value as a steady, if unspectacular, workhorse.

 

James Conner

Dynasty Value: #28 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 90.6

2024 Season: 1,094 rushing yards, 4.6 YPA

8 rushing TDs, 47 receptions for

414 yards in 16 games.

 

Conner’s case is particularly interesting. Despite his elite run grade (90.6) and solid efficiency in short-yardage and goal-line situations, dynasty managers rank him at #28—primarily because of his age (29) and the negative team context with the Cardinals.

 

Team performance and individual production reveal that Conner is undervalued in the dynasty market despite delivering top-tier performance on the field.

 

Kenneth Walker

Dynasty Value: #12 (KTC 2025)
PFF Run Grade: 91.2

2024 Season: 573 rushing yards, 3.7 YPA

7 rushing TDs, 46 receptions for

299 yards in 11 games.

 

Walker is a unique case. Though his overall yardage is lower due to injuries, his high run grade of 91.2 reflects impressive efficiency when he is on the field. Dynasty managers rate him at #12, indicating that his future value is promising—even with past injuries.

 

His per-game performance over 11 games illustrates that his efficiency is among the highest, and with additional snaps, his production is likely to surge.

 

Unpacking the Discrepancies

 

Time Horizon and Future Outlook

 

The primary difference between dynasty rankings and on-field performance lies in the time horizon. Dynasty managers are building rosters for years to come, so they reward youth and projected growth. This is why Jahmyr Gibbs, at 22, is valued so highly on KTC, even if his current production (90.7 run grade) is only slightly behind the likes of Robinson (92.8).

 

 

Conversely, Derrick Henry’s excellent current performance (93.1 run grade) is discounted in the dynasty market because his remaining years at peak production are expected to be shorter.

 

Age, Durability, and Workload

 

Age is a critical factor. Younger players like Gibbs and Robinson are seen as long-term assets. Their efficiency now suggests that, with more volume, their overall production will only improve. In contrast, veterans like Henry, despite elite current stats, face durability concerns. This dichotomy explains why Henry is #1 in PFF rankings yet only #18 in dynasty values.

 

Efficiency Versus Volume

 

PFF focuses on efficiency—how well a player converts his opportunities into productive plays. Dynasty managers, however, are more concerned with volume—how many opportunities a player will receive in the future.

 

Josh Jacobs and James Conner both have high run grades (90.6) because they are efficient on a per-play basis, even if their volume isn’t as high as that of a workhorse like Henry. Efficiency metrics with total attempts illustrate this distinction clearly.

 

Team Context

 

Team environment also impacts dynasty values. James Conner’s lower dynasty ranking (#28) is influenced by his playing on a struggling Cardinals team, which dampens his perceived long-term value despite his high efficiency.

 

Similarly, Breece Hall’s low production (68.7 run grade) is tied to his injury history and opportunities with the Jets. When contextualized with team performance, these factors become crucial for dynasty evaluations.

 

 

Graphical Insights

 

Comparative Bar Chart of PFF Run Grades

 

 

Strategic Takeaways for Dynasty Managers

 

Integrate Both Perspectives

 

The most successful dynasty managers blend long-term potential with immediate production. Use KTC’s 2025 rankings to identify players who will provide sustained value over multiple seasons, and combine that with PFF’s run grades and production stats to ensure you’re also winning on a weekly basis.

 

Identify Buy-Low Opportunities

 

Players like James Conner, who are producing at an elite level (90.6 run grade) despite a lower dynasty ranking (#28), offer excellent buy-low opportunities. Acquiring such players at a discount can boost your weekly production without sacrificing future value.

 

Invest in Youth

 

For rebuilding managers, investing in young players like Jahmyr Gibbs (#1 dynasty, 90.7 run grade) and De’Von Achane (#5 dynasty, 82.8 run grade) makes sense. Their current efficiency and high dynasty values signal that, as they gain more touches, their production will only improve.

 

 

Monitor Workload, Health, and Team Context

 

Breece Hall’s low run grade (68.7) this season serves as a cautionary example. Although he is highly rated in dynasty rankings, his current production is impacted by injuries and his role with the Jets.

 

Similarly, Kenneth Walker's efficiency suggests that with more opportunity, his value could rise sharply. Stay alert to changes in team dynamics that might affect workload and production.

 

Conclusion: Balancing Present Production with Future Potential

 

The 2024 season has revealed a distinct divergence between dynasty hype and immediate on-field production. KeepTradeCut’s 2025 rankings position Jahmyr Gibbs at #1, Bijan Robinson at #2, Saquon Barkley at #4, De’Von Achane at #5, Breece Hall at #6, Kenneth Walker at #12, Josh Jacobs at #13, Derrick Henry at #18 and James Conner at #28.

 

In contrast, PFF’s 2024 run grades show elite performance from Derrick Henry (93.1), Robinson (92.8), Gibbs (90.7), Jacobs (90.6), Conner (90.6), and Walker (91.2)—while Hall lags at 68.7.

 

For dynasty managers, the key is to integrate these two perspectives. Use the forward-looking dynasty values to guide long-term roster building while relying on advanced performance data to make weekly decisions and identify undervalued assets.

 

Whether you’re a contending manager in need of immediate production (targeting players like Henry, Jacobs, and Conner) or a rebuilder focused on youth (investing in Gibbs and Achane), understanding the nuances behind these numbers is critical.

 

 

As you prepare this offseason, remember that the best dynasty managers are those who can adapt their strategies by blending data-driven insights with a keen understanding of future potential. 

 

Trust the granular details from PFF to assess weekly performance, but keep a sharp eye on the long-term trends reflected in KTC’s rankings. In doing so, you’ll build a dynasty that not only wins today but also stands the test of time.

 

 

By balancing present production with future promise, you can exploit market inefficiencies and make shrewd trade decisions. Understanding why active NFL players like Gibbs, Robinson, Barkley, Achane, Hall, Jacobs, Conner, and Walker are valued so differently in dynasty versus weekly scoring markets will help you build a championship-caliber team for years to come.