There is no shortage of statistics in professional baseball. Because of that, there are endless ways to find fantasy baseball sleepers. Valuable nuggets of information can be found anywhere from how hard a batter swings the bat to how much spin a pitcher puts on the ball.

 

 

On the flip side, it can be very easy to get caught up and confused in a sea of statistics that don’t matter if you don’t use them properly. Yes, perhaps it’s true that a player had a career-high batting average last year. But was it because his BABIP was unreasonably high? Did he change his batted ball profile, or did he get lucky?

 

Since Statcast started tracking the exit velocities of batted balls in 2015, exit velocity and its related statistics (Hard-Hit%, Barrel%, etc.) have become one of the most commonly used ways to find potentially underrated fantasy baseball players.

 

However, as with any statistic, there are massive upsides to using exit velocity stats correctly and potential pitfalls to using them incorrectly. Here are a couple of things to keep in mind as you use exit velocity statistics to find your fantasy baseball sleepers this year:

 

 

It’s tempting to look at Exit Velocity or Hard-Hit% and form an opinion about a player’s fantasy value. But xBA and xSLG – while taking into account exit velocity – also incorporate launch angle, which gives us a much more complete picture of a hitter’s performance.

 

In 2023, Pirates infielder Ke’Bryan Hayes’ 92.2 MPH average exit velocity (per Baseball Savant) placed him in the 93rd percentile of qualified hitters. Although he hit the ball hard, his 60th-percentile xSLG painted a much less rosy picture.

 

 

Despite limiting his strikeouts, he didn’t hit the ball hard with the optimal launch angles. His Launch Angle Sweet-Spot% was below average, and just 12.5% of his batted balls were pulled in the air.

 

 

In 2024, Hayes’s SLG fell from .453 to an abysmal .290 as he continued to struggle to elevate the ball. While his 2023 surface-level stats – including his average exit velocity – pointed to another successful season, his xSLG predicted that his hard-hit batted balls wouldn’t be enough to make up for his lack of optimal launch angles.

 

In addition to further understanding a hitter’s quality of contact, xBA and xSLG can help fantasy managers predict a player’s future value. Expected stats are often better indicators of next-year production than standard stats are.

 

 

Among qualified hitters in the last two seasons, 2023 xBA had a lower percent error than 2023 AVG when predicting 2024 AVG – and the same holds true for xSLG and SLG.

 

 

 

 

One of the best tools for evaluating hitters based on both launch angle and exit velocity is Barrel%.
Barrels are defined by Statcast as “batted-ball events whose comparable hit types (in terms of exit velocity and launch angle) have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage since Statcast was implemented Major League wide in 2015.”

 

It’s no coincidence that the players who barrel the ball often have the most success. The four hitters atop the Barrels leaderboard in 2024 were also ranked as the top four players in baseball by MLB Network, and the Yankees and Dodgers – MLB’s two World Series teams – had the first and third most Barrels, respectively. Hitters who consistently barrel the ball are safe bets for fantasy managers.

 

 

If a batter struggles to put the ball in play, their offensive ceiling is limited regardless of their contact quality. Oneil Cruz is a perfect example of this; his Barrel% and average exit velocity ranked in the top 3% of MLB hitters last season. Striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances, however, limited him to 21 home runs and a .773 OPS.

 

Incorporating all facets of a hitter’s game instead of relying solely on batted ball metrics allows fantasy managers to better evaluate players. But there is a fine line between acquiring players with power who are improving their plate discipline – these players are prime candidates for breakouts – and not drafting those who have power but won’t tap into it.

 

Players who hit the ball hard and are 1) young and still adjusting to MLB pitching or 2) have lowered their K% consistently for a few years are prime candidates to break out because they have room to improve and tap into their raw power. Be wary of middling players with good launch angles and hard-hit balls if they have a track record of high strikeout rates with no improvement.

 

 

With that said, which players check all of the above boxes headed into this year? These three hitters are prime fantasy baseball sleepers for the 2025 season.

 

After posting 18 home runs and 22 stolen bases last year as a 24-year-old, Luis Garcia could provide lots of value for fantasy managers this season. His xBA (.278) and xSLG (.452) were both in the top quartile of qualified MLB hitters, and he struck out in just 16.3 of his plate appearances.

 

 

That’s extra impressive considering his age; among players aged 24 or younger last season, Garcia had the second-fewest punchouts behind the Brewers’ Sal Frelick. His power, speed, and contact ability make him a prime candidate to break out in 2025.

 

Spencer Horwitz is a perfect example of why holistic player evaluations are important. His average exit velocity was a subpar 88.2 MPH in 2024, but his knack for optimal launch angles (81st percentile LA Sweet-Spot%) and excellent strikeout rate make him a fantasy baseball sleeper for 2025. 

 

His xBA (.254) and xSLG (.419) were above average, and his plate discipline was advanced given he only had 39 career plate appearances entering last season.

 

 

Ryan O’Hearn has had two very good seasons since joining the Orioles in 2023. Despite slugging just .427 in 2024, his .461 xSLG indicates he could see better results next season. O’Hearn also rarely strikes out; his 14 K% last year was in the 93rd percentile among qualified MLB hitters. His contact profile as a hitter is somewhat different from most 6’3, 220 lbs. first basemen, but he provides a late-round opportunity for hits from the position.

 

When used correctly, batted ball statistics like exit velocity and launch angle can help better identify fantasy baseball sleepers. Garcia Jr., Horwitz, and O'Hearn all have the batted-ball quality – as well as the plate discipline and expected stats – to have successful 2025 campaigns.