Cooper Kupp joins a Seahawks offense undergoing major changes. Seattle parted ways with both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, leaving a huge target void on the depth chart. Kupp will presumably step in as a starting receiver alongside young Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN).
Fit in Seattle’s Offense and Expected Role
The thing is, Kupp and Smith-Njigba have overlapping skill sets – both thrive from the slot, which creates a potential role clash. Last season, Smith-Njigba ran an NFL-high 84% of his routes from the slot (561 slot routes), while Kupp spent about 57-65% of his routes in the slot (one of his highest rates in recent years). Seattle’s coaching staff will need to decide how to deploy them to maximize their investment in Kupp.
Seattle’s offensive scheme under new OC Klint Kubiak is expected to lean run-heavy, reducing overall passing volume. Kubiak’s 2024 offense in New Orleans ran few three-WR sets and targeted the slot at one of the league’s lowest rates (only ~27% of passes).
This could force one of Seattle’s slot specialists outside on many plays. Given their profiles, it’s likely Kupp will be moved outside more often while Smith-Njigba retains a majority of slot snaps.
Kupp has played outside before, but he’s historically been far more efficient from the slot. If Seattle uses Kupp primarily on the boundary to keep Smith-Njigba in his optimal slot role, it could cap Kupp’s production around WR3 territory in 2025. On the other hand, if they feature Kupp in the slot to justify his $45M contract, Smith-Njigba would have to play outside more – a scenario that might not be ideal for either player’s efficiency.
The departure of Metcalf and Lockett means ample targets are available, but Seattle likely won’t force-feed Kupp like the Rams did at his peak. During his Rams tenure, Kupp was a target hog (191 targets in 2021, leading to a historic 145-catch Triple Crown season).
With Seattle, expect a more balanced distribution. Smith-Njigba established himself as the Seahawks’ new #1 option in 2024 with a 100/1,130/6 breakout line, so Kupp enters as more of a 1B or #2 receiver. Triple-digit targets are still likely for Kupp, given the thin WR depth (Seattle’s other receivers are role players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Bobo), but his days of 30% target share and 140+ targets are probably over.
Seattle has historically supported two fantasy-relevant wide receivers (e.g. Metcalf and Lockett under Geno Smith) and Sam Darnold also sustained two productive WRs (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison) in Minnesota last year. That suggests room for Kupp to be productive, but likely as a secondary option behind Smith-Njigba. Overall, Kupp’s fit in Seattle’s scheme should be as a veteran possession receiver who can move the chains but with less focal usage than he enjoyed in Los Angeles.
Chemistry with the Quarterback (Geno Smith vs. Replacement)
The quarterback situation in Seattle will influence Kupp’s production. If Geno Smith were still under center, Kupp’s presence would give Geno a reliable short-area target to complement Smith-Njigba – and we know Geno can support two receivers (he did so with Metcalf/Lockett). In reality, Seattle traded Geno away and brought in Sam Darnold as their new starter.
Darnold is coming off a resurgent 2024 season in Minnesota, where he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 TDs, even emerging as a fantasy QB1 with 18.8 PPG. He showed he could maximize elite weapons (feeding Jefferson and Addison effectively). Now in Seattle, Darnold gets a solid duo in Smith-Njigba and Kupp, albeit a downgrade from his Vikings arsenal.
Kupp has a track record of quickly building rapport with quarterbacks. He excelled with Jared Goff early in his career and then formed nearly instant chemistry with Matthew Stafford, resulting in a Super Bowl MVP and record-setting season. His savvy route running and understanding of coverages make him a quarterback’s best friend when healthy.
Darnold (or any new QB) will likely lean on Kupp as a safety blanket, especially on third downs and in the red zone. In fact, the dynasty perspective is that Darnold just gained “one really significant safety blanket” in Kupp, which should help his efficiency.
That said, at this stage, Kupp won’t elevate a quarterback into elite territory on his own. Andrew Erickson of FantasyPros cautions that adding Kupp, at age 32, isn’t going to push Darnold beyond a mid-range QB2 fantasy ranking. The Seahawks’ offensive philosophy (run-first under Kubiak) also means the QB–WR chemistry might not translate into high-volume passing games.
Still, we can expect solid timing on short and intermediate routes once Kupp gets the offense down – he’s a precise route-runner who excels at finding soft spots in zone coverage. In summary, whether it was Geno or now Darnold, Kupp provides a reliable veteran presence.
He should quickly become a trusted target, especially on underneath routes, but don’t expect the QB play (which is average to good, not elite) to propel Kupp back into top-five WR territory. The chemistry should be good enough for consistent PPR value, but the ceiling will be limited by the overall passing efficiency of this Darnold-led attack.
2025 Fantasy Outlook (Short-Term)
In redraft and immediate outlook, Kupp’s fantasy value sees both a boost and a limitation with this move. On one hand, landing in Seattle keeps him fantasy-relevant – he steps into a starting role on a team that desperately needed a veteran receiver, rather than languishing on the Rams where he had seemingly fallen out of favor. Kupp will be 32 when the 2025 season starts, and while that typically signals decline, he can still be a high-volume PPR contributor if healthy.
We should temper expectations to something like a WR2/WR3 range outcome. DLF notes that Kupp now “projects more as a WR2 than a WR1 moving forward” given his age and new situation. Similarly, 4for4’s analysis suggests Kupp will likely land in the low-end WR3 range in 2025 drafts (his early ADP was around WR49 overall), and if things go right, he could outperform that to be a usable low-end WR2/WR3 for fantasy managers.
The Seahawks are unlikely to force-feed Kupp 12+ targets per game as the Rams often did. With Smith-Njigba ascending as a potential star, Kupp may settle into 5-7 catches and 60-70 yards on a typical week, with occasional touchdowns. A realistic stat line might be in the ballpark of 80–90 receptions, 900–1000 yards, and ~5–7 TDs over a full season – useful but not elite.
There is upside for more if Seattle’s defense falters and they have to throw a lot, but Kubiak’s scheme suggests they’ll try to stay balanced or run-heavy. Notably, Kupp’s red-zone usage declined last year (his red-zone target share dropped from 31% in 2023 to about 20% in 2024), and with Seattle’s focus on the run, his touchdown upside might be modest.
Advanced metrics also flash warning signs about Kupp’s current ability. After his historic 2021 season, his efficiency has trended down:
Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): Kupp led the NFL with an elite 3.21 YPRR in 2021. That fell to 2.41 in 2022, and down to ~1.9 in the last two years. While 1.9 YPRR is still decent, it’s a far cry from his dominant peak and suggests he’s not separating or gaining yards at the same rate.
Ability to Get Open: According to ESPN tracking, Kupp’s open score ranking plummeted each year – from 15th-best in 2021 to 102nd in 2023 and 141st of 159 WRs in 2024. This indicates it’s getting harder for him to shake coverage as he ages and defenses key on him.
YAC (Yards After Catch): Kupp’s YAC per reception dropped to 4.0 last season after averaging in the 5.5–5.9 range for years. He wasn’t creating as much extra yardage on his own, possibly due to reduced explosiveness after injuries.
These trends underscore that Kupp is no longer the game-breaking receiver he was during his Triple Crown year. In the second half of 2024, he struggled mightily: over his final seven games with the Rams, he topped three receptions only twice and averaged just 36 yards per game.
In fact, from Weeks 15-19 (including two playoff games), he never saw more than three targets and had fantasy point totals of 0.0, 5.4, 3.9, 3.9, and 11.1. That concerning finish is part of why the Rams were comfortable moving on (they even signed Davante Adams to replace him).
Given this context, Kupp’s short-term outlook in Seattle is a solid but unspectacular fantasy option. He’ll have a decent weekly floor in PPR formats because he still runs crisp routes and should command a fair share of intermediate targets. But his ceiling is likely capped in the mid-to-low WR2 range at best, and more realistically, he might settle as a high-end WR3 in 2025.
Think of him as a volume-dependent receiver who can deliver 12-15 PPR points in a good week. If Seattle’s offense clicks and he stays healthy, he could surprise with stretches of vintage Kupp-like production, but it’s wise to expect a decline from his Rams heyday. In sum, for 2025 redraft leagues, Kupp is a mid-round pick with more question marks than we’re used to but still capable of weekly starter value in fantasy lineups.
Long-Term Outlook and Risk Factors
From a long-term perspective, there are significant risks with Kupp’s dynasty value. Age is the foremost factor: Kupp will be 32 this season, and father time is not kind to wide receivers. Very few receivers produce elite numbers into their mid-30s, and we’ve already seen two consecutive seasons of decline from Kupp.
Over the last three seasons (2022-2024), he’s missed a total of 18 games due to injuries – averaging about six games missed per year with ailments like a high-ankle sprain (2022), hamstring issues, and other leg injuries. Durability is a real concern; as players age, injuries tend to linger and recovery is tougher. Dynasty managers have to account for the possibility that Kupp will continue to miss time each season, which lowers his reliability.
The change in offensive system is another risk. Kupp is leaving Sean McVay’s scheme, where he was the centerpiece, and joining a Seattle offense that is shifting identity. Learning a new playbook and adjusting to Kubiak’s style at this stage could lead to an initial production dip.
The Seahawks likely won’t design the entire passing game around Kupp like McVay often did. Instead of being the undisputed #1 target, Kupp will share that role with Smith-Njigba. As mentioned, Seattle’s coordinator in 2025 has historically utilized fewer 3-WR sets and fewer slot targets, which directly conflicts with how Kupp was most effectively used.
If Kupp is forced outside more (where he’s less efficient), his overall numbers could suffer. There’s a real scenario where Kupp’s skills don’t translate as well to Seattle’s scheme – for example, if he can’t consistently win against outside coverage anymore or if Seattle simply doesn’t throw enough for him to approach his past volume.
In terms of long-term fantasy value, Kupp’s window as a top producer is narrowing. Short-term, he might have one or two more serviceable seasons if things break right. But his long-term dynasty outlook is that of an aging asset whose value will depreciate quickly.
By 2026 and beyond (when Kupp is 33-34), it’s hard to envision him as more than a complementary receiver, if he’s still playing at all. Even his 2025 output is far from guaranteed – a couple more lower-body injuries or any lost step in speed could render him a very average player. The advanced stats hint at a decline: declining YPRR, struggling to separate.
These usually aren’t trends a receiver reverses in his 30s; more often, they continue downward. There’s also the matter of contract and team context: Kupp got a three-year deal, but if Seattle’s season goes sideways or younger receivers emerge by 2026, the team could shift focus entirely to youth. He could even become a cap casualty later if his play declines sharply.
All that said, Kupp is a special talent with elite work ethic, so a complete fall-off isn’t guaranteed. He may yet author a late-career renaissance if he stays healthy and builds great chemistry with Darnold. But prudence dictates viewing him as a declining asset with high volatility.
The range of outcomes is wide: he could be a 90-catch guy for the next year or two, or he could be an injury-plagued WR4 who frustrates fantasy managers. We simply can’t count on the Kupp of 2019-2021 reappearing – as one analyst put it bluntly: “I firmly believe Kupp’s best days as a fantasy asset are behind him.”. Long-term, dynasty GMs should plan as though they’ll get one more decent year, and anything beyond that is a bonus.
Dynasty Value and Buy/Sell/Hold Advice
Kupp’s move to Seattle has complex implications for dynasty managers. On the one hand, it’s a relief that he found a good landing spot and should produce “big numbers” (at least relative to what we feared if he’d stayed with the Rams or remained teamless).
His value in dynasty had been in freefall after back-to-back down years and the uncertainty of being cut; this signing likely stabilizes his stock. DLF notes that this outcome was “about as good a result as you could hope for” for Kupp owners and expects his dynasty ADP to rise now, stopping the slide despite his age. In other words, the market will view him more favorably now that he’s in Seattle with a clear role.
Whether you should buy, sell, or hold Kupp in dynasty really depends on your team situation and how your league values him. Here are some considerations for each approach:
Buy (for Contenders): If you are a win-now contender, Kupp could be an attractive short-term buy at the right price. His recent struggles and age mean his trade value is relatively depressed compared to elite WRs. If the Kupp manager in your league is rebuilding or skeptical, you might acquire him for a 2nd-round rookie pick or even a couple of 3rds – a reasonable price for a player who could give you WR2-level production in 2025.
Just understand you’re buying a short-term asset. This is a move for a team that needs an extra push to chase a title in the next year or two. Advanced age and injury risk are baked in, so don’t overpay thinking you’re getting 2021 Kupp.
But as a rental who can still command targets, he’s worth buying if you’re in a championship window and can get him at a discount. Essentially, buy if the price is right and you’re making a title run.
Sell (for Rebuilders or Value Maximizers): If your team is not in contention or you have ample WR depth, this could be a prime opportunity to sell Kupp. His name value and the buzz of a new team might entice someone to pay more than they would have a month ago. If another manager views him as a missing piece for their contender, you might flip Kupp for a package of younger assets or draft picks.
Given the likelihood that Kupp has, at most, a couple of productive seasons left, cashing out now to a contender can be wise. For instance, if you can get an early-to-mid 2025 second-round pick or a younger receiver with upside in exchange, it’s a good return.
Selling is especially prudent if you’re rebuilding – by the time your team is competitive, Kupp will likely be past his expiration date. In short, sell if you can get strong future value, as Kupp’s trade value may never be higher than it is with the optimism of this new signing.
Hold: Many dynasty managers will find that holding Kupp is the default best move. If you already have him, you likely endured his down year and wouldn’t get a huge haul in return due to his age. Unless someone is willing to meet a high asking price, you might be better off riding out his production.
Holding makes sense if you’re a contender who just wants his points (because trading him could leave a hole in your lineup) or if the offers you’re getting are merely mid-round picks that don’t match his potential 2025 output. By holding, you keep a capable veteran who can serve as a fantasy WR2/3 when healthy – that can be the difference in a playoff push. Just be aware that holding carries the risk of further value decline.
If Kupp starts slow or gets hurt again, his market value could crater. But given the current landscape, “staying the course” is a valid strategy; as DLF mentioned, this is as good a scenario as we could have hoped for Kupp, so dynasty GMs should be relieved he can still contribute. If you have him, you “will take it” and hope he produces solid WR2 numbers on your roster.
In summary, dynasty managers should gauge their team's direction. If contending, lean toward holding or buying Kupp cheaply for the points he can score in the next year or so. If rebuilding or flush with receivers, use this opportunity to sell before age and injuries further erode his value.
Kupp’s dynasty stock is that of an aging former star: not entirely done, but unlikely to reach elite heights again. The consensus of analysts is that you shouldn’t expect a return to his prime production. However, he’s far from a scrub – when on the field, Kupp is a PPR machine who “is still a capable receiver with plenty of target-earning ability if healthy.”
Treat him as a short-term asset who can help win games now and have an exit plan for the near future. Ultimately, whether to buy, sell, or hold comes down to cost and context, but all managers should be realistic about what Kupp offers at this stage: a moderate-to-high-floor, lower-ceiling fantasy receiver nearing the final chapters of an outstanding career.