Jordan Hicks is a fireballer, and there's no arguing that. Hicks averaged 100.3 mph on his fastball last year, topping out at 105 mph. Last year, Hicks managed to pitch in 65 games for both the Cardinals and Blue Jays while saving 12 games. Hicks filled in admirably for Ryan Helsley and Jordan Romano during each of their respective IL stints.
Yesterday, Hicks parlayed his best season since 2019 into a four-year $44 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. My first thought was, “Okay, so he’ll set up Camilo Doval.” But here’s the twist! The Giants plan to have him start.
Jordan Hicks Breakdown
Hicks started the 2022 year in Cardinals rotation but ended up going on the IL with a forearm strain keeping him out from the end of May until July and finishing the year back in the pen. A starter in the minors, Hicks has experience as a starter and leaves scouts drooling at his raw stuff. The Giants, on the other hand, are known to be able to mold raw stuff into quality pitching. Let’s look into what the 27-year-old has going for him and against him.
Hicks is a statcast dream, his chart is as red as the flames coming off his 105 mph fastball. However, the blue that sticks out makes me pause at believing this year could be the year Hicks breaks out. You guessed it; Hicks is in the 15th percentile in walks. With the strikeout potential that Hicks possesses, a few walks isn’t a dealbreaker; however, my other pause is that he is essentially a two-pitch pitcher.
Last year, Hicks threw 75% fastball/sinker and 23% slider/sweeper while mixing in only 2% change up. Some would argue that few starters are successful with two-pitch stuff. However, I personally think Hicks is the mold of a pitcher who makes it work. Other two-pitch (90%+) pitchers over the past few seasons include Spencer Strider, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, and Kevin Gausman.
What Does 2024 Hold for Hicks?
A look at Hicks’ sinker/fastball and slider/sweeper shows two nasty pitches. The fastball comes in over 100 mph but the sweeper is just as special. It had a high spin rate of over 2500 rpm, and other hitters batted just .136 against it with a 59.5 whiff percent. NASTY! If Hicks can harness those two pitches and stay healthy, the sky is the limit.
Kevin Gausman catches my eye looking at a Giants connection as he went from a pretty mediocre pitcher before his Giants days to an annual Cy Young candidate. Gausman had a career whip of 1.35 going into the 2020 season, plagued by high batting average against. Something clicked for Gausmann in 2020, and he has sported lower BAA, BB/9, and era as well as a much higher k%.
Gausman is the perfect mold for what we hope Hicks will be in San Francisco. I think Hicks is a possible breakout pitcher as long as he stays healthy and starts spotting his pitches better.
Projections:
Jordan Hicks - 12 wins, 3.72 era, 22 starts, 94.2 innings pitched, 108 strikeouts, and 1.2.7 whip
