It’s officially draft week, and the most exciting day of the year for dynasty owners is right around the corner. Unfortunately, when the dust settles and we finally see landing spots, it can sometimes be the most disappointing day of the year. 

For every perfect match, like De’Von Achane to the Dolphins and Rashee Rice to the Chiefs, there are also nightmare landing spots that take the wind out of our sails, such as Zach Charbonnet to the Seahawks. 

With the 2025 NFL Draft right around the corner, I’m giving ou a pick-by-pick guide to which outcomes we’re hoping to fade and which ones we’re rooting for. Follow along for a little extra intrigue on draft night.

Day 1

The first round of the NFL Draft will start with a foregone conclusion, namely Cam Ward to the Titans. Immediately after though, the rooting begins. 

1.02-1.04 - Travis Hunter to a receiver-needy landing spot

In this range, we want Travis Hunter to be drafted by the Cleveland Browns at 1.02 or the New England Patriots at 1.04. In either case, I believe he would step right in as that team’s WR1 with part-time usage at corner. 

If we get this outcome, Travis Hunter surges into the top five of dynasty rookie drafts, and I could get behind drafting him as high as the 1.02. He does all of the “above and beyond” things that elite alpha wide receivers do, along with surprising ability in his route running and releases. 

This is possibly the highest-leverage decision that will occur all draft night, as Travis Hunter’s landing spot will make the difference between him being drated in the second round of dynasty drafts as a dice roll vs entering the league with a legit chance to become a top-five dynasty receiver by the end of his rookie year. 

Longshot

Tetairoa McMillan to the Patriots

Opinions on McMillan are all over the place. While I think he has the route running nuances to be a legit WR1 on his team, others see him as more of a WR2 and mid-first round pick. 

To feel great about McMillan in the top five of dynasty drafts, I’m hoping he gets top-12 capital and gets drafted by a team in need of a WR1. Pairing McMillan with Drake Maye would go a long way towards confirming the NFL values him as a future WR1. No, I’m not sweating  Stefon Diggs entering his age-32 season coming off a torn ACL. 

1.05 - 1.10

Ashton Jeanty and Tetairoa McMillan

Get Top Ten Draft Capital

While there is essentially nothing that can happen to make Ashton Jeanty go later than 1.01 in dynasty drafts, owners of the 1.01 would be thrilled to see him get top ten draft capital, potentially in offenses spear-headed by either Chip Kelly or Ben Johnson. This won’t affect Jeanty’s draft stock, just make us even more excited for him.

On the other hand, it’s extremely unclear to me if the NFL views Tetairoa McMillan as worthy of a top ten pick. Seeing him go to the Raiders, Panthers, or maybe even the Saints would imply his team is extremely high on him and willing to invest in their future WR1 even at the expense of other needs.

Realistic Longshot

Tyler Warren Gets Top 10 Draft Capital

This isn’t a total longshot, and I don’t think anybody would be shocked, but a mildly surprising outcome such as the Panthers, Bears, Saints, or especially the Jets deciding that Warren is too good to pass up would catapult him into the top five of TE-premium drafts. 

Longshot

Omarion Hampton Also Goes in the Top 10

This is a longshot for a reason, but just imagine the Raiders take Jeanty and then the Bears invest their pick in Omarion Hampton. This would make Hampton the clear 1.02 in dynasty drafts.

1.12 - Matthew Golden, not Tetairoa McMillan

to the Cowboys

Let me be clear here, Cowboys fans are absolutely justified if they’re rooting for Tetairoa McMillan here instead of Matthew Golden. CeeDee Lamb does a lot of his damage from the slot, and McMillan could step right in and take tough assignments as the outside X receiver against press coverage. It’s actually a good real-life match, although it puts the onus on the Cowboys to find a deep threat who can create space. 

From a pure fantasy football perspective though, rooting for Golden in this spot maximizes Golden while leaving the light on for McMillan to be drafted to a team with a clearer path to WR1-status.

Matthew Golden would be an outstanding fit in Dallas. First, we’re pretty sure Golden will be drafted to a team needing a more dynamic WR2, and the Cowboys certainly fit that bill, to go along with a quarterback who can support multiple productive fantasy receivers. This pick would be a great real-life NFL fit, which bodes well for Golden hitting and being a productive WR2 for dynasty.

Don’t get me wrong, McMillan to the Cowboys would be intriguing. First, Dak Prescott has shown in the past he can support two fantasy receivers simultaneously, and secondly we could see a path similar to young CeeDee Lamb, who bides his time as the WR2, but then steps into the limelight as the player in front of him ages out of his prime. 

Realistic Longshot

Cowboys Draft a Running Back

While the steam has gone out of this scenario since free agency, when the Cowboys made two (cheap) investments in Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, realistically those two don’t limit you if you think the best player available is a running back.

I get the vibe the Cowboys signed those two in order to ensure they aren’t forced to go running back if the value doesn’t line up. That doesn’t preclude drafting a stud if they think he’s the best player available.

Longshot

Cowboys Draft Tyler Warren

While the Cowboys have Jake Ferguson, he’s entering the last year of his contract and might not preclude the Cowboys from drafting Warren if they think he’s a rare talent. I consider this slightly more unlikely, both because Warren could be gone by this point and because the Cowboys theoretically have more pressing needs. 

Picks 13-22 - Both TEs get drafted

Teams such as the Colts and Chargers frequently have tight ends mocked to them, and I think both are good landing spots. Granted, catching passes from Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones is not exactly enticing, but any tight end who goes to the Colts will immediately have a clear path to playing time and a dominant snap share. 

Any scenario where the quarterback room causes a floor outcome for fantasy will probably immediately be followed by a wholesale change to that quarterback room, so dynasty owners can be rewarded for their patience.

As far as the Chargers are concerned, Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert managed to squeeze startable games out of Will Dissly and Stone Smartt. Imagine what they could do with Colston Loveland. 

Realistic Longshot

A Receiver Needy Team Either Stops McMillan’s fall

or Trades up for him

If Tetairoa McMillan falls past 1.12 for the Cowboys, the Broncos stand out as a potential landing spot, as McMillan would likely emerge ahead of Courtland Sutton as the team’s WR1 in the medium term, albeit not at first. 

Also by this point, the Packers should move heaven and earth to go up and take their WR1, with a roster clogged by four different guys who, as much Matt LaFleur once insisted otherwise, are not The Guy™, although don't get me wrong there is plenty to like about each incumbent receiver. 

Longshot

The Rams Trade up Aggressively for Tyler Warren

Hear me out. A year ago, it was widely reported that the Los Angeles Rams tried aggressively to trade up into the teens to draft Brock Bowers. If Sean McVay sees Tyler Warren as a rare talent who merits that kind of investment, Warren could rocket up to the 1.03 in TE-premium drafts. 

The Rams keep their starting tight end on the field in excess of 90% of their snaps and have flashed games where they pepper their tight end with targets. Replace Tyler Higbee with Tyler Warren, and you have a potential smash spot.

Picks 20-32

TreVeyon Henderson Gets First Round Draft Capital

More and more national media types are beginning to report on smoke signals that the NFL views TreVeyon Henderson as a first rounder, and that’s not surprising. Henderson is the best pass blocker I’ve ever scouted, and is a legit downfield route runner who can generate explosive plays through the air and on the ground. 

There will most likely be a dozen offensive coordinators salivating about what they can do with Henderson, and I think we need to watch out for this possibility starting with the Denver Broncos at 1.20. 

Picks 20-32 - The Second Tier of Receivers

get First Round Draft Capital

While Tetairoa McMillan and Matthew Golden feel extremely safe to get first round draft capital, there is a second tier of wide receiver that should be getting late first round draft capital. Players such as Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden feel like first rounders, but we don’t know for sure. 

Landing in the back of the first would be great for their dynasty value. In particular, Luther Burden to the Commanders and Emeka Egbuka to the Rams would be great fits. In the case of Egbuka to the Rams, he would fit right in as a slot option who blocks and is precise and reliable. The Rams, for their part, run a ton of 11-personnel, so Egbuka would stay on the field even as a slot-only player. 

Picks 20-32 - The Non-Ward Quarterbacks

get First Round Draft Capital

If Shedeur Sanders has made it this far, it feels likely he either gets drafted by the Steelers, or that the Browns or Giants trade back into the back of the first for him. 

Assuming Sanders goes before this point, we’ll be keeping our eyes peeled for the Browns and Giants to come back up for Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart, or both. Any one of these quarterbacks should be going in the first round of superflex rookie drafts if they get late first round draft capital.

Longshot - Mason Taylor Sneaks Into the Back of the First

While the idea of Mason Taylor is way ahead of the reality, media mainstays such as Daniel Jeremiah have suggested he is getting first round buzz. If that were to happen, we’d be pretty excited in TE-premium leagues, though I would still temper my expectations. 

Days Two and Three

Once we get into Day Two, we obviously want as many prospects as possible to get as early draft capital as possible, but going a bit deeper, we want to highlight players who will require a specific circumstance to either thrive or to stay dynasty relevant.

Wide Receivers

Flanker-Slot Hybrids

These are players who are going to be most effective in the slot, but who can stay outside in two receiver sets. This type of player needs some experience running downfield routes and ideally can block. Ladd McConkey was the poster child for this kind of player falling into a perfect landing spot. 

2025 prospects in this archetype include Jaylin Noel, Isaac TeSlaa, Jack Bech, and to some extent Kyle Williams. Expanding this archetype into the first round, we can add in Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden. 

For this group of players, we’re rooting for them to land with teams who best combine 11-personnel usage with weak competition at Z receiver. The latter is an important distinction. For example, staying on the field in two receiver sets is the major sticking point keeping Jayden Reed from dynasty stardom right now. 

Below is a list of the top ten teams in 11-personnel usage, plus some bonus teams who might still be good landing spots, along with the competition for the slot and Z receiver positions for those teams. Each team is highlighted based on the expected opportunity for a Flaker-Slot hybrid player.

Slot-Only Types

Unlike the flanker-slot types, who can “get there” either by being in 11-personnel all the time, or by playing in two receiver sets, this archetype of player can essentially only be a fantasy star if they land on a team that trots out three-receiver sets a high percentage of the time and throws the ball a lot. 

Players in this draft class that fit that mold include Xavier Restrepo, Tez Johnson, Jaylin Lane, and maybe Jack Bech/Isaac TeSlaa, depending on how their teams perceive them. Please see the chart above, in particular the extra “Slot-Only Ranking” column that igores the Z Receiver Competition column. 

Big Slot Types

Switching gears to the power-slot players, these are guys who I think strictly require big slot usage to become fantasy stars, but who might get typecasted as X receivers, which would make me significantly less excited about them. 

This year, the player we’re watching most closely is Jayden Higgins. I think Higgins could be a star for fantasy if he plays X receiver in two receiver sets, but primarily plays the slot, which is exactly how Drake London enjoyed his breakout season this year. 

For Higgins, the main thing is that we want to fade teams who either have a screaming need at X receiver, or who already have an established slot-only receiver. This means we’re fading the Ravens, Cowboys, Lions, Packers, Chiefs, Raiders, Dolphins, Saints, Seahawks, and Commanders. 

The Vertical Receivers

For the vertical receivers who also showed some underneath chops in college, namely Matthew Golden, Kyle Williams, Tre Harris, and Tory Horton, we’re hoping they go to a team that uses them as more than just a vertical space-creator. 

This won’t be something we can really know at the moment of the draft, but we should listen carefully after the draft and figure out what about these players convinced their coaches and general managers to draft them. 

If the coaching staff talks a big game about taking the top off the defense, we might be in trouble for fantasy. But if they harp on versatility, playmaking, run-after-catch, route running, etc, we might like their chances to be a full service receiver, rather than a pure deep threat. 

Running Back

In general for the running back position, we’re rooting for these players to get drafted to teams that either have limited competition for touches, or have competition that is so mediocre that the incumbents won’t stand in the way of a player who flashes.

Getting more specific, there are a couple team fits we’re looking for. 

Kaleb Johnson and Bhayshul Tuten

to Outside Zone-Heavy teams

While they’re very different stylistically, Johnson and Tuten would both benefit immensely from being drafted to teams that run outside zone. 

For Kaleb Johnson, that’s because he’s not overly creative in the tackle box, but he has good balance and can shake off tacklers who are coming at him from oblique angles. In Bhayshul Tuten’s case, it’s because of both his big plat ability, and because you want him running downhill at defensive backs, who melt off of him thanks to his Despicable Me minion physique.

Typically, teams that implement concepts from the Kubiak-Shanahan coaching tree tend to use more wide zone concepts. Unfortunately, several of the teams that fit this description are already pretty set at running back, including the Niners, Falcons, Dolphins, and now the Seahawks with the arrival of Klint Kubiak.

Cleveland Browns head coach Kevin Stefanksi is expected to go back to an under-center wide zone and play-action system, as the team has finally moved on from Deshaun Watson (spiritually, if not financially). The Cardinals are another team that could be in the market for a long term option at running back whose offensive play caller comes from this coaching tree. 

Dylan Sampson Gets Drafted to a Team

Without a Two-Down bruiser

Dylan Sampson is a pretty unique prospect, in that he was a workhorse at Tennessee, which included inside rushing on early downs, despite being a smaller player at 5’8” 200 lbs. As a smaller, faster player, he might be drafted by a team looking for a change-of-pace option rather than an early down rusher. 

Sampson’s projection for fantasy might depend a lot on whether he goes to a team with lots of early down rushing work available, similar to how James Cook was able to eventually step into a full time rushing role for the Buffalo Bills. 

If given a chance, Sampson could run away with the role and be more than a change-of-pace back. However, to really like him for fantasy, dynasty managers need to fade him going to a team that will pigeonhole him as a 1B back behind a grinder who eats all the early down work.

Cam Skattebo Goes to a Team With

Three-Down Work Available

On the opposite end of the spectrum from Dylan Sampson, Cam Skattebo has three-down ability, but might get typecast as a two-down bruiser. If he goes to a team that sees him as a thumper, rather than as an offensive priority, he’ll struggle to be relevant for fantasy, even if he’s an efficient real-life player.

Devin Neal to get a True Training Camp Competition

for Starter Snaps

At this point, it seems unrealistic to expect a team will draft Devin Neal with a plan in place for him to be the clear starter. All I’m asking is for Devin Neal to get drafted to a running back room with a true chance to compete for playing time, rather than a clear backup / handcuff role. 

Neal has a three-down skillset, and while he isn’t the most dynamic pure athlete, he gets the most out of his movement ability with rapid, efficient footwork and balance. No running back in this draft excels quite like Devin Neal at making the first tackler miss in a phone booth, and while the athletic traits might scream “backup”, dynasty owners will want to at least see if he can be more in a fair training camp competition. 

The Pass Catchers get Drafted to Teams

With Weak Rushing Competition

There are a couple backs in this class who profile best as pass catchers, but in order to have a legit fantasy asset, you can’t build the whole plane out of pass catching. While receptions are a critical factor to PPR success for running backs, getting on the field on early downs is important to becoming a stable asset with a ceiling.

These types of players don’t need to carry the ball 15 times per game, but they need to be on the field on more than just third down. For that to happen, their coach has to feel like their presence on the field isn’t a dead giveaway. If a talented pass catcher gets drafted to a team with a star rusher, odds are they shouldn’t be a priority for fantasy. 

Players who for this reason are teetering between being legit fantasy assets and deep stashes include Jaydon Blue, Woody Marks, Lequint Allen, and Brashard Smith. 

We’re hoping to fade the teams who have a locked-in early down player. The exception would be that there are certain offenses that have shown they can sustain two running backs in a “thunder and lightning” tandem, namely Ben Johson and Kevin Stefanski offenses. Kliff Kingsbury might also support a pure pass catcher, considering how relevant he kept Austin Ekeler last year.

Teams who might draft a receiving back, but who have very little opportunity beyond receiving work, include the Packers and Ravens.

Instead, teams that might take a pass catcher, but who have opportunity for a breakout player on early downs (think last year’s Bucs and Giants), include the Browns, Jaguars, Patriots, Commanders, Bears, Chiefs, Chargers, Raiders, Cowboys, and Broncos. It’s important to note that while some of these teams technically have incumbents, they may be on the brink of losing out to a player who comes in and knocks the doors down, a la Bucky Irving. 

Tight End

After the first round of the NFL draft, we’re obviously hoping for tight end prospects to fade being drafted as a pure backup. A sneakier fade is avoiding prospects being drafted next to an established tight end to a coach who talks a big game about using more 12-personnel.

Every year, some team makes a surprising tight end pick, feels a little over-invested in the position (for fantasy, anyways), and promises up and down that both players will see the field. For fantasy purposes, we have absolutely no interest in these types of part-time players. 

Teams simply do not use enough 12-personnel, and are not pass-heavy enough out of 12-personnel, to sustain a fantasy asset if the other tight end actually runs routes too. 

To be clear, this is distinct from cases such as Brock Bowers and Tucker Kraft who dusted their rival and became The Guy in 11-personnel. We are fading players who get taken as luxury picks alongside tight ends with contract insulation. 

Overall

Armed with this rooting guide, there’s nothing left to do but sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. The NFL Draft always comes with some disappointing surprises for dynasty, but until then, we’re free to daydream about all of our favorite prospects getting perfect landing spots.

Once reality sets in, this guide can be a valuable resource for adjusting our final tiers and then attacking our dynasty rookie drafts. And maybe just maybe it’ll make watching the NFL draft even more fun. Until then, good luck to your favorite prospects getting the best dynasty landing spots.