Axios
As the NFL draft approaches, the spotlight intensifies on teams in need of a quarterback upgrade. A large majority of the starting quarterback spots are locked in. However, a handful of teams still lack any real conviction in their quarterback rooms.
In this analysis, I have compiled the eight NFL teams I believe could and should be deeply considering selecting or trading up for a starting quarterback in this year's draft. Moreover, I will evaluate which of these teams is best and least prepared for a rookie quarterback to succeed this season based on their current offensive situation.
Best Prepared: Washington Commanders
HC Dan Quinn RB1 Brian Thomas Jr. RB2 Austin Ekeler
WR1 Terry McLaurin WR2 Jahan Doctson WR3 Dyami Brown TE Zach Ertz
With the departure of former owner Dan Snyder, the exciting addition of fiery new Head Coach Dan Quinn, and possession of the second overall pick, Commanders fans have a lot to look forward to. Despite the lack of consistent quarterback play over the last few seasons, the Commanders always seem to have sneaky good offenses. At times last year, now Seahawk Sam Howell had the unit humming.
An active offseason saw WR Curtis Samuel and RB Antonio Gibson replaced by RB Austin Ekeler and TE Zach Ertz. Terry McClaurin is as solid as ever at WR1, while young Jahan Doctson and former Tarheel Dyami Brown have the potential for major breakout seasons next year with better quarterback play.
Perhaps their most important offensive addition is new OC and play caller Kliff Kingsbury. He didn’t exactly light it up in Arizona, but Kingsbury should bring a level of invention and creativity the Commander's offense has lacked. There are far worse places a rookie quarterback could end up than Washington.
Least Prepared: Pittsburgh Steelers
HC Mike Tomlin RB1 Najee Harris RB2 Jaylen Warren
WR1 George Pickens WR2 Van Jefferson WR3 Quez Watkins TE Pat Freiermuth
From an organizational standpoint, there are few teams I have more confidence in than Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Tomlin, the longest-tenured NFL head coach, has 17 consecutive winning seasons and ranks third all-time. Dragging Kenny Pickett and Co. to a 10-7 finish last season was arguably his greatest accomplishment. While the defense should be ok in 2024, there's a real concern for the offense.
The unit ranked 24th in yards per game last year and lost two of its starting WRs (Dionte Johnson and Allen Robinson) without making any notable additions. I like the talent of Pickens, but in ample opportunity in 2023, he did not show the consistency required to be the top pass-catching weapon on an above-average offense. Pickens became the team's WR1 when Johson went down; he never eclipsed more than 47 yards in three straight games. Najee and Warren are arguably the league's best 1-2 punch, and when TE Pat Freiermuth isn’t concussed, he can be a handful over the middle.
Despite bringing in two quarterbacks this offseason, I’m surprised there isn’t more chatter about the Steelers taking a quarterback high in the draft. While I don’t necessarily expect it to happen, the Steelers aren't married to either Fields or Wilson, who have been on their roster past this year.
If a rookie quarterback is drafted, they would be joining one of the league's least exciting offenses. Do I think the Steelers should be tempted by Penix at 20? Yes. Do I feel like they’ve done enough this offseason to prepare for such a pick? No.
Best Prepared: Minnesota Vikings
HC Kevin O’Connell RB1 Aaron Jones RB2 Ty Chandler
WR1 Justin Jefferson WR2 Jordan Addison WR3 Trent Sherfield WR4 Brandin Powell TE TJ Hockenson
Post free-agency, I was a strong advocate of the Minnesota Vikings riding into the 2024 NFL season with Sam Darnold as their starting quarterback. In his lone start last season in San Fran, the former Trojan played competent, mistake-free football; his 189 yards and single touchdown were nothing to write home about.
As a Jets fan, I always thought Darnold wasn’t given a fair shot to succeed and that he’d thrive in a good offense with a good Head Coach. The Vikings offer Darnold just that: a studly young WR duo of Addison and Jefferson, a top TE, a deep versatile backfield, and most importantly, a quarterback-focused coach in Kevin O’Connell. However, the more I’ve thought about it, the less I believe Sam Darnold should be entirely trusted to lead this unit.
For one, Darnold has never played more than 13 games in a season, and more concerningly, in four seasons as a ‘starter,’ his offenses never ranked higher than 18th in scoring. The more I read and research, the more I think someone like J.J. McCarthy (which would require the team to give up assets) or even Michael Penix Jr. would have every opportunity to play with both a higher ceiling and floor than Darnold.
The Vikings selecting a quarterback in the first round is far from guaranteed, but if they do, I struggle to find a better offensive situation for a young prospect to immediately thrive in.
Least Prepared: New England Patriots
HC Jerod Mayo RB1 Rhamondre Stevenson RB2 Antonio Gibson
WR1 K.J. Osborn WR2 Demario Douglas WR3 Kendrick Bourne TE Hunter Henry
With first-year head coach Jerod Mayo at the helm, nobody knows what the Patriots will look like next year. While Belichick again produced a strong defense in his final year, the offense was essentially abandoned. An eyesore at best, the unit ranked 29th in total yards.
The team parted ways with Mac Jones, the Pats added a de facto WR1 in K.J. Osborn, and running back Antonio Gibson. The fourth year flashed in a limited role in Minnesota; not only are the Patriots asking him to take a massive step this year, but they need him, too. Meanwhile, I’m not a fan of the Gibson move, whose skill set too closely aligns with leadback Stevenson, so the pair feels redundant.
There's a lot of talk that New England will swoop in for a quarterback with their number three pick. If they do go quarterback, they have set the player up for failure by assembling a mighty underwhelming offense.
Best Prepared: Chicago Bears
HC Matt Eberflus RB1 D'Andre Swift RB2 Khalil Herbert RB3 Roshon Johnson
WR1 DJ Moore WR2 Keenan Allen WR3 Tyler Scott TE1 Cole Kmet TE2 Gerald Everett
The Bears offense will undoubtedly be spearheaded by a rookie quarterback next season, who will be telegraphed by a flurry of offensive moves this offseason.
Despite missing the final four games of the season, Keenan Allen still finished 6th in receptions and 11th in yards. Acquiring his services for only a 4th rounder represents a real coup, and I expect Allen to hit the ground running in Chicago. Opposite him, DJ Moore is coming off a career year. The ex-Panther has always been a nifty player, but he finally ascended into the superstar club last season, posting career highs in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. Not many offenses boast as well-rounded and vicious of a three-headed backfield as the Bears. Cole Kmet took a real step in year four, compiling 5+ targets in 11/15 games.
The biggest question mark for a rookie quarterback on this team is head coach Matt Eberflus. The defensive-minded HC has yet to construct a functional offense and almost got fired because of it last season. Eberflus aside, the Bears have done an A+ job this offseason getting the team ready for a rookie starter, and can even still use their 9th overall selection to further bolster the unit.
Least Prepared: Denver Broncos
HC Sean Payton RB1 Javonte Williams RB2 Samaje Perine
WR1 Courtland Sutton WR2 Josh Reynolds WR3 Marvin Mims Jr. TE Adam Trautman
The Broncos will be going into the draft this year with Jarett Stidham and Ben DiNucci as their only active quarterbacks, which is pretty crazy to think about, considering we’re only two offseasons away from them giving up two 1st’s and two 2nd’s for Russell Wilson. Sean Payton, of course, wasn’t the guy who decided to make the trade, but ultimately, he was the one who paid for Wilson’s sub-par quarterback play. Considering their current options, it’s all but guaranteed Payton will look to land a rookie to come in and compete for the starting job.
Known for his offensive prowess, Payton found success on the Saints surrounding quarterback Drew Brees with elite playmakers like Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and Jimmy Graham. The SB-winning coach has no such talent on the Broncos and only has himself to blame.
Always in need of a WR, the Broncos addressed the hole by trading arguably their best in Jerry Jeudy while signing former Lion Josh Reynolds. Cortland Sutton’s 10 TDs in 2023 made him a viable WR3 in fantasy, but he’s the real-life WR1 in this Broncos offense having not topped 829 yards since 2019. Javonte Williams is the offense's greatest strength on paper, unfortunately, he can never stay healthy.
I easily envision a rookie quarterback starting games next season for Denver based on their current quarterback situation; however, I fear the team failed in prioritizing that side of the ball in free agency.
Best Prepared: Las Vegas Raiders
HC Antonio Pierce RB1 Zamir White RB2 Alexander Mattison
WR1 Davante Adams WR2 Jakobi Meyers WR3 Tre Tucker TE Michael Meyers
The most surprising inclusion on this list for me has to be Las Vegas Raiders. Only five offenses posted fewer total yards last season, and the team's only addition on offense was backup RB Alexander Mattison and backup quarterback Gardner Minshew. Rookie Aiden O’Connell came out of nowhere last year and went 5-5 in starts, highlighted by a Christmas Eve win over eventual champion Chiefs. Despite some success, no one expected the 135th pick to maintain his starting job going into this year. Yet, here we are, the draft representing the Raiders' last chance to upgrade O'Connell.
Head Coach Antonio Pierce brushed aside any doubt WR1 Davante Adams would be a Raider next season amid trade speculation. Coming over from the Patriots last offseason, Jakobi Meyers proved to be an excellent slot compliment, and rookie Tre Tucker showed signs he could be a lethal field stretcher. Those imploring the Raiders to chase a running back this offseason haven’t watched enough of Zamir White, who profiles as a three-down sledgehammer. The Raiders finished the year 3-1 across White's four starts, the back entrusted with at least 17 carries in each contest.
With a balanced blend of experience and youth, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2024 Raiders offense takes a huge jump, finishing closer to the middle of the pack. 16th doesn’t sound too pretty, but the Raider's offensive situation is leaps and bounds ahead of other equally quarterback-needy teams
Least Prepared: New York Giants
HC Brian Daboll RB Devin Singletary
WR1 Darius Slayton WR2 Wan’Dale Robinson WR3 Jalin Hyatt TE Darren Waller
Brian Daboll’s resume with the Bills and Josh Allen gave the Giants optimism that he could revive an offense coming off back-to-back 31st-place (total yards) finishes in 2020 and 2021, respectively. It was easy to squint and see the similarities between Daniel Jones and Josh Allen's games, but people forget Jones isn't a Daboll pick. Inherited from the former regime, Jones improved immediately under Daboll's tutelage.
Unfortunately, Jones’s last two seasons have been fraught with injury and poor play, so don’t be surprised if Daboll looks to get his guy at quarterback in this year's draft. If the Giants fall in love with McCarthy or Maye, who's to say they won't trade up to grab them?
Despite finishing 29th in total yards last year, the Giants made no real attempt to remedy the unit this offseason. On the contrary, they lost their most significant and consistent contributor, Saquon Barkley, replacing him with massive downgrade Devin Singletary. A rookie quarterback would be throwing to arguably the league's weakest trio of starting receivers. Don't let the name brand of Darren Waller distract you from the fact that the former pro-bowler looked like a shadow of himself last year.
The Giants' offense lacks the depth and top-end talent for a rookie quarterback to succeed, especially when compared to other quarterback-needy teams mentioned on this list.
