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The Last Mock; Nailing the NFL Draft's Round 1

The NFL draft is finally upon us! 24 hours from writing, the draft's brightest prospects will be en route to this year's venue in Detroit, anxiously awaiting the destination of their future employment. For this mock draft, FTR writers Dov Kaufman and Pattrick Hollerson will assume the roles of the most powerful, influential team builders in the NFL, the GMs. 

With a whopping 28 day-one draft trades over the last five years, we believe it would be foolish to omit a trading element to this mock. Of course, predicting trade partners, let alone draft picks, is near impossible. Let's nail this thing!

1. Chicago Bears 

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

The second the Bears traded their 2021 11th pick QB Justin Fields, the fate of the first overall pick was sealed. That happened over a month ago now, and I feel like Caleb Williams is barely being talked about as a prospect anymore. You can tell Williams watched Aaron Rodgers growing up; his 1% interception ratio, arm strength, ability to elevate subpar talent, and game intelligence make him this class's ‘generational’ ‘can’t miss’ prospect. The Bear franchise has yet to feature a true elite QB (sorry Jay Cutler), and offense in its history, so 2024 and beyond could be historic for the franchise.

2. Washington Commanders

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU 

Despite rumors of Jaden Daniels preferring to play for teams besides Washington, the Commanders don’t hesitate to take the former LSU Tiger. Washington needs a franchise quarterback and that’s exactly what they get in the reigning Heisman winner. He was electric last year for the Tigers throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns. While there are questions about his size and durability, Daniels is too talented to pass up. 

3. New England Patriots

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Under the stewardship of first-year Head Coach Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have kept their cards close to their chest with this pick. As much as they will want to trade this pick to a QB-needy team, I don’t think they’ll get a substantial enough offer worth moving down the board. If they stick - and they will - it's the best player available. All of Marvin Harrison Jr, Malik Nabers, and Joe Alt represent value at 3, but only one played TE as a freshman! I know this is a new Patriots regime, but Alt just feels suspiciously like a Patriot to me. Mayo could be out of a job quickly if he blunders this pick; at 6 '8, 322lb, Alt is a ‘safe’ pick capable of anchoring the line for the next decade-plus. 

4. Arizona Cardinals

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Marvin Harrison Jr. WR, Ohio State 

The Cardinals are fielding offers for this pick, but ultimately they choose to stay put. Arizona needs a wide receiver for quarterback Kyler Murray to throw too badly and Harrison is a freak of nature. Even with subpar quarterback play last year, he was a dominant force in Columbus, OH with 67 receptions, 1,211 yards, and 14 touchdowns. He also comes from NFL royalty with his father Marvin Harrison Sr. being a Hall-Of-Fame wide receiver for the Indianapolis Colts. 

5. New York Jets via Los Angeles Chargers 

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

Where there’s smoke, there's fire, and reporting two days out from the draft suggests the potential for a trade between the Chargers and the Jets for the 5 pick. With the Jets rumored to be targeting an elite pass catcher and the Chargers happy to trade down, a trade is more realistic than you realize. The teams also share an important link: General Managers Joe Douglas and Joe Horitz. The pair worked together in Baltimore so the communication should be easy. According to former QB and current talent evaluator Chris Simms, more teams than less view Nabers as the top wideout on their big board. The Jets could be one of them, with a trade up to five securing a lethal partnership of Malik Nabbers and Garett Wilson. 

6. Denver Broncos via New York Giants

Patrick Holleron’s pick: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

The Zach Wilson trade by no means solves the team's quarterback conundrum. So Sean Payton and the Broncos decide to mortgage the future in the hopes of finding their franchise signal caller. McCarthy is a polarizing prospect as he helped guide the Wolverines to a National Championship, but there were multiple games where he didn’t throw the ball frequently enough. This was most evident in Michigan's 24-15 win over Penn State back in November when McCarthy only threw the ball eight times. All eight of those passing attempts came in the first half. At least, he can't be much worse than Russell Wilson.   

7. Tennessee Titans

Dov Kaufman’s pick: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

General Manager Ran Carthon should be looking to support second-year starter Will Levis with the team's 7th pick. Is it too early for a pass catcher like Odunze or Bowers? The latter openly confessed the Titans would be an exciting landing spot for himself. Considering the team drafted a WR in the first round two years ago and signed two more to decent contracts in free agency, I instead see the Titans drafting their biggest position of need, O line. Latham is a mauler in the trenches, and reports suggest he could be a surprise name to pop up in the top 10. 

8. Atlanta Falcons

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Dallas Turner EDGE, Alabama

After being very active in free agency the Falcons addressed most of their pressing needs, except pass rusher. Last year Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree tied for the team lead in sacks with 6.5. Both are currently free agents. Alabama Edge Dallas Turner is a breath of fresh air for an Atlanta team with an abysmal pass-rushing unit. Turner had 8 sacks for the Crimson Tide this past season. Simply put the Falcons have not had a dominant pass rusher since 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Turner gives them that.

9. Chicago Bears

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Bears have a unique opportunity to assemble one of the league's deadliest, most youthful offensive units. On the surface, the Bears are set WR, but look more closely and you see a team non-commital to Keenan Allen past 2024 with a real dearth at WR. I would hate this fit for fantasy, but for the Bears, bringing in Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze as classmates could have the potential to alter the fate of the offense for the next decade plus.

10. Los Angeles Chargers via New York Jets

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The top 3 wide receivers are off the board and Justin Herbert still needs weapons to throw to after losing Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekler, and Gerald Everett. Brock Bowers gives Herbert a much-needed safety blanket. The former Bulldog is a star tight end in the making, having no less than 700 yards and 6 touchdowns in three seasons at Georgia. He has drawn George Kittle comparisons and the numbers back that up.    

11. Minnesota Vikings

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Drake Maye, QB, UNC

If the top ten transpires as we predict thus far, the Vikings will gleefully rush to the podium to submit their card for UNC QB Drake Maye. In this scenario, Vikings GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah avoids pushing all of his assets into the middle of the table while still landing his QB project of choice. New QB coach Josh McCown was able to bring in former teammate Sam Darnold already, who's to say he isn’t in Adofo-Mensah’s ear about Maye, whom he coached in high school.

12. NY Giants vs Denver Broncos

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Giants trading down means they pass on the opportunity to replace quarterback Daniel Jones. They still have a glaring hole at cornerback after parting ways with Adoree' Jackson and not replacing him. Terion Arnold gives big blue a major upgrade opposite of Deonte Banks. Arnold is an extremely well-rounded corner with good speed, size, instincts, and versatility. He is very physical and doesn’t give up big plays. Arnold is exactly what a team wants at cornerback and New York is ecstatic that he's still available. 

13. Las Vegas Raiders

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

When Antonio Pierce took over as interim coach in week 9, few could have predicted he would maintain the position into the 2024 NFL offseason. Tom Telesco, the team's third GM in four years, will work alongside Pierce to mend a roster that probably has too many holes to compete this year. If the Commanders weren’t a lock to take Daniels, I have no doubt Pierce would be doing everything he could to trade up for the Heisman winner. Fuaga is a much safer OL prospect than the guys they’ve typically targeted in this range (I’m looking at you Alex Leatherwood), and he would be a day-one starter capable of masking some of the team's other offensive deficiencies.

14. New Orleans Saints

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The Saints will be celebrating like it's Martigra with Laiatu Latu slipping to them at 14. New Orleans needs some more juice in the pass-rushing department. Star defensive end Cameron Jordan was limited with an ankle injury all year that led to his 2 sacks, the lowest since his rookie season in 2011. Latu is a force to be reckoned with, having produced 23.5 sacks in two years with the Bruins.  

15. Indianapolis Colts

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo 

The Colts are sitting pretty here at 15, with a bevy of potential prospects available for selection. Brian Thomas Jr. is tempting, as is the top EDGE available, Jared Verse. My hesitation on WR comes from the team locking down star WR1 Michael Pittman to a long-term deal this offseason, and drafting promising playmaking WRs Alec Pierce and Josh Downs early in the last two drafts. Instead, I like the Colts to take college veteran and ballhawk cornerback Quinyon Mitchell. The team lacked star power on the defense, Mitchell would bring a much-needed alpha presence to a formerly lackluster group.

16. Seattle Seahawks

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Troy Fautanu, OT/OG, University of Washington

Under new head coach Mike Macdonald Seattle could go defense here, instead, they beef up the offensive line with Troy Fautanu. Seattle is set at the tackle position with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, but Fautanu can shift inside at guard. If injuries strike again in 2024 he can move over to either tackle spot. He has the build of a guard and the reach of a tackle. Keeping Fautanu in Washington state just feels right. 

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Brian Thomas Jr, WR, LSU

Three years after entering the league as a true ‘generational prospect’, Trevor Lawrence has objectively let down these expectations. In such a talented QB-driven league, it's hard to make a case for Lawrence to rank top 12 at his position; guys like CJ Stroud and Jordan Love have shown more in fewer starts. There’s a lot of pressure on both Lawrence to perform this season, and on the Jags to evaluate whether he’s worth the monster fee he is due to fetch. I imagine the team wants to help Lawrence rather than hinder him, so it makes sense for the team to target a high-upside weapon. Thomas Jr. has the potential to fill the hole left behind by Calvin Ridley, and then some. 

18. Cincinnati Bengals

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Byron Murphy ll, DT, Texas

Cincinnati lost a key piece of their defense with DJ Reader heading to Detroit. While the Bengals could go pass rusher given that the status of Trey Hendrickson is unknown, Murphy ll is a unique prospect that fills a key need. He's very quick and nimble for a defensive tackle. His speed allows him to penetrate inside quicker than most and he flashes pass rusher-like technique. The only knock against him is his smaller size for a defensive lineman, but it's not enough of a deterrent to push the Bengals away.         

19. Los Angeles Rams

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

Sean McVay’s LA Rams were one of the surprise packages of the 2023 regular season. You have to give serious props to GM Les Snead, who in the last two drafts landed an RB1 (Kyren Williams)  and WR1 (Puka Nacua) at picks 164 and 177 respectively. With their first 1st round pick since 2016, the Rams will look to fill an impossible hole left behind by first-ballot HOF Aaron Donald. Verse is an older prospect who projects to disrupt the run game with his power and length.

20. San Francisco 49ers via Pittsburgh Steelers

(Steelers acquire Brandon Aiyuk) 

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

The 49ers ultimately can’t agree to a new deal with Brandon Aiuyuk leading to a trade to acquire pick 20. They will miss his speed and explosiveness, but landing Olumuyiwa Fashanu to play opposite Trent Williams is an absolute steal. He is an absolute mammoth of a tackle who is very hard to get by. The only concerns are that he can be a little stiff when having to move around. The thigh injury suffered at the combine factored into his stock falling. The overall value is too good for San Francisco to pass up on though, he gives them stability on the right end of the offensive line. Williams is also 35 years old and is likely close to calling it a career. The 49ers now have his successor as they follow the same blueprint Tampa Bay used with Tristin Wirfs. 

21. Miami Dolphins

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Amarius Mimms, OT, Georgia

After losing star defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to the Raiders, the Dolphins signed seven players in free agency to battle for his leftover spot. Surely one of those guys works, allowing the Dolphins to continue to bolster their OL with the 21st pick. Amarius Mimms is quite the enigma; having only started 8 games his entire collegiate career, some question whether Mimms has accumulated enough reps to merit a top 20 pick. Regardless, if developed effectively, Mimms has all the physcial makings of a cornerstone LT.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

Philadelphia's issues in the secondary throughout 2023 were well documented. The Kevin Byard trade didn’t pan out as expected. And James Bradberry's missed tackles were a nightmare to watch, especially in the wild-card round when Trey Palmer made a 56-yard house call. Nate Wiggins is a long, rangy corner who will be all over opposing wide receivers. It is also an issue as he tends to hold on to wide receivers longer than some would prefer. He is also a little lackadaisical in the run game with blocks. The Eagles can live with his flaws as they are more manageable than Bradberrys whose best days appear to be over. 

23. Minnesota Vikings

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

Having already landed their QB of the future at 11, the Vikings now turn their attention to the defensive side of the ball. With needs at DT, EDGE, and CB, Jer'Zhan Newton has a case to be the best defensive player available on the board, and possibly the DT prospect in the whole draft. What Newton lacks in frame and length is made up for in flexibility and power. A hyper-productive college player, Newton would immediately strengthen the Viking’s pass and rush defense. 

24. Dallas Cowboys

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

The Cowboys have a lot of holes to patch up on the roster after Jerry Jones decided to take a power nap in free agency. Dallas starts off by replacing long-time starter Tyron Smith with Tyler Guyton. Guyton is uber athletic and very twitchy for an offensive tackle. His biggest drawbacks are his lack of starting experience and being overwhelmed at times by bigger rushers. I don’t see Dallas starting him at either tackle spot, either they move him inside or have him learn behind Tyler Smith and Terrance Steele.

25. Green Bay Packers

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

In Jordan Love, the Packers have somehow stumbled upon another franchise-altering QB prospect to lead their team. Like most, they could use a guard, but arguably a more pressing need is the back end of their defense. Many think CB S hybrid Cooper DeJean won’t make it past this pick, I have the Packers instead taking Alabama CB Kool- Aid McKinstry. I question McKinstry’s ability to run with a teams top WR, thankfully he'll be afforded the time to develop playing opposite star Jaire Alexander.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

Tampa Bay has to be itching to get a pass rusher after releasing Shaq Barrett. Robinson is a very raw, high-upside prospect for the Buccaneers. He didn’t produce a lot of sacks at Penn State, but he showed elite speed and explosiveness. A fault that was seen often in college was his struggles against angle blocks and double teams. Playing with the likes of Vita Vea will certainly help that. 

27. Arizona Cardinals 

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

Like the Bears, the Cardinals have a unique opportunity to emerge from the draft with an offense absolutely transformed. Yes, the Cardinals already stayed pat at 4 and took WR Marvin Harrison Jr, but the team was gonna have to draft two WRs at least, so why not do your damage early? Mitchell is the perfect compliment to Harrison Jr, and their 25 combined TDs last season will give the Cardinals offense a much-needed jolt. With the Bills next on the clock and desperate for a WR, Arizona walks away laughing having drafted the top WR left on their big board.

28. Buffalo Bills

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State

After a drama-filled three years with Stefon Diggs the Bills decided it was time to move on. The wide receiver in Buffalo situation feels similar to Tennessee after they moved AJ Brown two years ago. The Bills like the Titans opt to replace a star wide receiver with a first-round rookie. Keon Coleman can be the ideal X wide receiver who is big, physical, and elusive. He isn’t the fastest guy in the draft, but he has a knack for making contested catches and bodying out defensive backs. Pairing Coleman with Josh Allen, James Cook, and Dalton Kincaid screams red zone domination. 

29. Las Vegas Raiders via Detroit Lions

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Michael Penix Jr.

Michael Penix Jr brings a level of swag and leadership I think could pair very nicely alongside Head Coach Antonio Pierce. The Raiders shouldn't be afraid of starting Gardner Minshew at QB in 2024, but they should be wary of planning for the future at the position. In this scenario, I’ve piloted the Raiders back into the first round to select an exciting QB prospect. Penix should sit, but if Minshew starts slow his name will be called upon by the fans sooner rather than later. Bleacher Report claims the team could even consider taking the former Husky with their 13th pick.

30. Baltimore Ravens

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Cooper DeJean, CB/S, Iowa

I thought about giving Baltimore a wide receiver here. Cooper DeJean comes off as a classic Ravens player on defense. He's a hard-nosed, blue-collar football player. His combination of size and speed allowed him to blanket opposing wide receivers. DeJean is also very elusive, recording three pick-sixes in 2022. He also has experience as a punt returner which should intrigue John Harbaugh. The Ravens boasted one of the best defenses last year and adding DeJean adds more talent to this group.    

31. San Francisco 49ers

Dov Kaufman’s pick: Ladd McConkey

Having traded WR Brandon Aiyuk to the Steelers and drafting Pen St. OT Fashuanu, the 49ers must now use their own first pick to draft Aiyuk’s replacement. A vastly different mold of receiver to Aiyuk, Ladd McConkey’ has all the attributes to be the next Kyle Shannahan offensive superstar. McConkey is faster than he looks and measures more comparably to Garett Wilson and Chris Olave than Julian Edelman. 

32. Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Holleron’s pick: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas

Kansas City was bound to add another receiver in the draft. Rashee Rice’s legal issues expedited the need to add another wide receiver to pick 32. Xavier Worthy with Patrick Mahomes is oozing with scary good potential. His 4.21 second 40-yard dash was jaw-dropping. The Chiefs had some super fast guy named Tyreek Hill a couple years back and that worked out pretty well. The only concern I have for Worthy is the history behind breaking the 40-yard dash record. John Ross broke the record back in 2017 and looked to be the next speedy star receiver. Unfortunately, he didn’t do much after getting drafted. Worthy would be entering an ideal situation with Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Marquise Brown. With or without Rice, adding Worthy to this offense is terrifying. 

And there you have it, FTR’s deadly accurate first round mock. The graphic below shows the order in which players were selcted in this mock, however traded picks do not have the updated team logo. Come back after the draft to see how we did!