espn.com
Being able to cover the NFL Draft live has been one of the best experiences of my life. Round one was absolutely crazy, and I’m ready to break down the biggest winners and losers from a dynasty fantasy football perspective. These takeaways will be based on my own player evaluations and also the buzz I heard in the media workroom.
Keep in mind most leagues are played in a Superflex format, so I’ll be highlighting those quarterbacks as draft capital is so important. With that said, let’s dive into the biggest dynasty winners and losers from round one of the 2024 NFL Draft.
Winners
Caleb Williams
Chicago Bears (1.01)
No surprise here, but Caleb Williams goes number one overall to the Chicago Bears. What is somewhat surprising is that the Bears got Rome Odunze at number nine. This makes the Bears easily the best situation a number-one pick has had in quite some time with Odunze, D. J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and D'Andre Swift. The offensive line isn’t great, but it’s improved to mediocre status. Overall, this was the best-case scenario for Williams, and he’s easily the 1.01 in Superflex rookie drafts.
Marvin Harrison Jr
Arizona Cardinals (1.04)
At number four the Cardinals decided to stick and pick generational prospect Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison now gets to play alongside Kyler Murray, who was widely considered a top-10 quarterback before his ACL injury in 2022. I still believe in Murray, and after coming back at the end of last season, he should be fully ready to go in week one. Harrison will replace Marquise Brown as the Cardinals WR1 and he should still dominate targets over Trey McBride.
J.J. McCarthy
Minnesota Vikings (1.10)
The Vikings have the best situation for a rookie quarterback to step into, and J.J. McCarthy is getting that privilege. Although I don’t believe in McCarthy as a player, you have to respect the draft capital, with the Vikings trading up to 10 in order to grab him. Although McCarthy didn’t throw a ton at Michigan, that will change in Minnesota. The Vikings had the 6th most pass attempts in 2023 despite losing Kirk Cousins early in the year. McCarthy checks both the situation and draft capital box which makes him a top-eight rookie pick.
Bo Nix
Denver Broncos (1.12)
Bo Nix gets the third-best landing spot for quarterbacks, going to the Broncos at pick 12. Nix not only gets great draft capital, but he also steps into a situation where Sean Payton will be given an opportunity to help him thrive. Payton has a great track record with quarterbacks and there’s even been some comparisons to Drew Brees if Nix can hit his ceiling. The Broncos have a mediocre situation otherwise, but it’s not enough to prevent Nix from finding success. Nix should now be viewed as a late first-round rookie pick.
Xavier Worthy
Kansas City Chiefs (1.28)
The Chiefs decided to trade up for Xavier Worthy, and it’s obvious they want him in that Tyreek Hill role. Although I’m typically not a fan of these deep-threat receivers, the Chiefs have shown their willingness to get these guys involved. Of course, getting to play with Patrick Mahomes is a massive win for any player, but there’s a shot Worthy’s value will go up even more if Rashee Rice misses time. Worthy should be going right around the 1.12-2.02 range in dynasty rookie drafts.
Ricky Pearsall
San Francisco 49ers (1.31)
Ricky Pearsall going in the first round was completely unexpected, but he’s a massive winner from day one. Not only was this a massive bump to his expected draft capital, but the 49ers are a great situation for him. There’s been buzz around the media that the 49ers are interested in trading Brandon Aiyuk or now even Deebo Samuel. Assuming one of the two gets traded, Pearsall will rise even more in value if he’s the 49er's WR2.
Although Pearsall will be playing in a crowded offense, the 49ers are able to elevate everyone's efficiency. I’m still not extremely high on Pearsall, but depending on how the rest of the draft shakes out, I would take him around the mid-second round.
Losers
Malik Nabers
New York Giants (1.06)
It’s hard to call Malik Nabers a loser, but I’m genuinely shocked the Chargers passed on him. Even though Nabers dropped just one pick, he went from being the WR1 for Justin Herbert to now Daniel Jones. Nabers is good enough to elevate this offense, but the Giants were extremely bad in 2023. Not only were the Giants 26th in pass attempts per game, but they also finished 30th in points per game.
Although the Giants have some more draft capital, their free agency was terrible from an offensive side as well. The team finally let go of Saquon Barkley which will be a big hit to their offensive efficiency. Going from Barkley to Devin Singletary is going to cause more drives to stall, hurting Nabers. That being said, I believe Nabers isn’t that far off from Harrison and can transcend his situation. Overall, Nabers is still going to be my 1.05 in rookie drafts.
Michael Penix Jr
Atlanta Falcons (1.08)
If you disagree with this take, I completely understand, and I’m a massive Michael Penix Jr fan myself. That said, man, this pick makes zero sense. The Falcons said they want to copy the Packers and their Jordan Love experiment but Penix is one of the most pro-ready quarterbacks. Kirk Cousins won’t be on his way out for at least one to two years, and in that time, Penix will depreciate in value. Assuming Penix doesn’t see the field until year three, you’ll be able to get him at a discount during that window.
On the other hand, Penix gets top 10 draft capital which is great. With that being said this is such a weird situation that I don’t believe Penix will have the same leash based on his age and how long it’ll take him to start. In a Superflex format, Penix should still go around the 1.12 to 2.01 range because he’s a quarterback but I’m not taking him a ton in this situation.
