The biggest shock on day one of the NFL Draft came when the Atlanta Falcons took Michael Penix Jr. 8th overall. This was a greater shock than Jahmyr Gibbs’s being taken 12th overall last year, as Penix’s draft projection was all over the place, and the Falcons just signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year contract. So, being picked at 8th overall, especially when he never even had a formal top-30 visit with the Falcons, wasn’t expected by anyone.
Once the shock wore off, it was time for the important question. How does this affect his dynasty outlook? I’ll be breaking things down and taking a look at different perspectives. First, I’ll be looking at how Penix fits in with the Falcons and the Cousins contract, then how I would consider him in 1 quarterback and superflex leagues.
The Kirk Cousins Situation
Prior to the draft, Kirk Cousins signed a four-year contract with the Atlanta Falcons worth 180 million dollars. So this wasn’t a contract where he was clearly a bridge quarterback for a rookie. He was paid like a top starter.
I personally didn’t look too much into the contract when he first signed it, but after taking a look at the details, it’s essentially a three-year contract. The contract gives the Falcons the option to cut him before the 2027 season and save 45 million dollars in cap space. So, while it’s better, it’s not a true four-year contract; three years isn’t ideal either.
The Falcons referenced the “Green Bay model,” aka how the Green Bay Packers selected Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers as they developed behind Rodgers and Brett Favre, respectively.
#Falcons HC Raheem Morris on taking Michael Penix Jr.: "The Green Bay model was something we talked about. It proved to be right last year. Hopefully we’ll be right with them."pic.twitter.com/Hknhm3LbG3 https://t.co/sDDu3x5iXb
As a Packers fan, getting this type of recognition around the league feels great, but our franchise is a bit of an outlier in quarterback development paying off. There are too many times when quarterbacks sit for a number of years and still struggle when they get the opportunity. In the past few years, we’ve had Trey Lance, Jimmy Garoppolo, Brock Osweiler, and Ryan Mallet fail the “Green Bay model.” It’s unfortunately not as simple as just having them sit behind a quarterback, and they always figure it out.
Now, I consider Penix a better prospect than most of those quarterbacks, so maybe there’s a good chance he pulls through. The strangest part about all of this is that I considered Penix one of the most pro-ready quarterbacks in this draft class. I could have understood taking JJ McCarthy with a plan to develop him, but Penix was just a very odd choice. Either way, Penix is there now, so let’s take a look at how he fits the offense.
The Falcons hired Raheem Morris and Zac Robinson from the Rams, and they are expected to run a similar offense to Sean McVay’s, with an emphasis on 11 personnel/three-receiver sets, consistent pre-snap motion, and passing from the pocket. This part will be an easy transition for Penix, as he ran out of similar formations and play styles in college. However, their offense has also been using a lot of snaps under center and play action lately, which will take Penix some time to adapt to.
Even though Penix has the upper hand in getting a handle on the offense and timing, Cousins came from a similar system and showed he could lead it very well in the NFL. With Cousins having experience in the system, a pedigree of success throughout his career, and his contract, it feels incredibly unlikely that Penix will see any playing time this year, barring injury. Cousins’s recovery from his Achilles will make things interesting, but I also have a hard time seeing Penix steal the starter role in year two. So, right now, we’re talking about a player who may not see the field until his third year and potentially not until his fourth year when he is 25 or 26.
Superflex Approach
Now, obviously, superflex will be very different since quarterbacks are essential and can be justified holding for a period of time. Using Love on KeepTradeCut as our example again, he kept pretty solid value throughout the years and was valued equal to a 2nd rounder most years other than 2022, when Rodgers signed his contract extension in the offseason. It’s not impossible, but given Penix’s draft capital and Cousins’ age, it’s rather unlikely that Penix could see this same dip.
So, this means that, at worst, you could realistically flip Penx for a 2nd if you decide to change course a couple of years into holding him or could use him as a nice throw-in for a trade. This makes it a bit more justifiable to take him earlier in the draft. Now the question is, what players likely offer more upside?
Going off of my rookie rankings, based on clear opportunities to start their rookie years and potentially raise or solidify their value, I would take all other first-round quarterbacks over Penix. For running backs, I would confidently take Jonathon Brooks and potentially Trey Benson. At receiver, I would feel confident taking Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, Rome Odunze, Xavier Worthy, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Keon Coleman over Penix. At tight end, I would only take Brock Bowers.
So, at the absolute earliest, we are looking at pick 14, maybe a bit later if there are any players that you are personally higher on. I think a mid-second-round pick in a superflex league is completely reasonable. However, it may just be hard to pull off if someone else is more willing to take on that risk earlier.
1QB Approach
My approach for 1QB may be potentially controversial, but unless you are in a very deep league with large rosters/taxi squads or have a very long rookie draft, I would probably avoid Penix until around pick 40. My reasoning is that Penix is potentially at his peak value right now and will likely see his value either drop over these next or stay the same until there are rumors of Cousins either retiring or the Falcons moving on.
If we use Love as an example, his value on KeepTradeCut plummeted when the Packers drafted him. He saw his value increase the following year when retirement and contract dispute rumors about Rodgers started to circulate. However, Love didn’t see his value rise to the level of even a third-round pick until it was clear that Rodgers was being traded. So, it took three years for Love to be worth even a third-round pick in most people’s eyes.
Now, it paid off for Love, but people will regret trying a similar path if they use a 2nd round pick on Penix and hold him for three years as he continued to lose value. So, if Penix is your guy, then go for him. However, I believe in targeting rookies who should see their value rise to at least be able to flip them for other players/picks if needed. With this philosophy, Penix isn’t a great investment in 1QB, in my opinion.
Conclusion
Penix is a complicated case that I think comes down to individual managers and the risk they are willing to take on. How early are you willing to take a player who likely won’t see his value rise for 2-3 years, and how patient are you willing to be? It’s probably better to take your attention elsewhere in one quarterback league. However, in superflex leagues, he would be worth it if he falls into the middle, maybe early 2nd round, depending on your feelings about him and the rest of the class.
