logo

5 UDFA Rookies to Target

By Backseat ScoutMay 7, 2024

With a number of writers taking a look at day three players that could be sleepers, I want to take it a step even further to take a look at some undrafted players that could be worth stashing. With these players all being undrafted, the odds are definitely stacked against them. However, these five players have the talent and landed in good situations to potentially exceed expectations.

  • Blake Watson, RB (Denver Broncos)

    Age: 24 years, 6 months
    Height: 5’9”; Weight: 195 pounds

    Competition at Position:
    -Javonte Williams (Expiring Contract)
    -Samaje Perine (Expiring Contract)
    -Jaleel McLaughlin (2 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Audric Estime (2024 5th Round Pick)
    -Tyler Badie (Expiring Contract)

    If you saw my draft rankings, you know I’m a big fan of Blake Watson. He’s a well-balanced player who is a strong runner, pass catcher, and has elite athleticism to break off big plays. Though Watson has these traits, his age and lower level of competition likely got him snubbed from the Senior Bowl, combine, and ultimately led him to not be drafted. Despite the draft cycle being unforgiving to him, there is some hope on the Denver Broncos.

    It could have been due to coming off of an ACL injury, but Javonte Williams looked to be missing a step last year and may not be a preferred option for Sean Payton. Williams had a career-worst yards per carry and yards after contact and only saw over 50% of the snaps in 6 out of 17 games this past season. He was heavily involved in the passing game with a career-high in receptions but didn’t look that dynamic with the ball in his hands. With him being in the final year of his contract, it wouldn’t be surprising if Williams seeks a change in scenery after the season.

    Samaje Perine operated as the backup running back for most of the season and was solid on the ground and also set a career-high for receptions. Perine was only on the field for about a third of the snaps but his production and ability to help on the ground and air will likely continue to get him a fair number of snaps this season. The good thing for Blake Watson is that Perine is also on an expiring contract and is more of an in-between tackles player. So, the different role may not impede Watson too much and if it does, Perine could be gone after the season as well.

    So that leaves Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Tyler Badie. I think Estime will serve as Samaje Perine’s replacement and Tyler Badie likely is a bit redundant and likely not a better player than McLaughlin. At this point, McLaughlin will serve as the biggest challenger for a roster spot and for playing time as a rookie.

    Jaleel McLaughlin got his production getting the ball in space to win with his speed and was primarily used in zone runs. These are two areas that Blake Watson excels at and he will need to show that he can outdo McLaughlin and prove he is more versatile by showing he has better vision on gap runs. McLaughlin was advertised as a Sean Payton favorite but he played on 18% of the snaps. So, this isn’t exactly an insurmountable player.

    The Denver Broncos entered 2023 with three running backs on their roster but quickly expanded this to four during the season. I would expect them to start with four with Javonte Williams (the incumbent), Samaje Perine (the reliable veteran), Audric Estime (the new draft pick), and the final spot to be a battle between Jaleel McLaughlin and Blake Watson. If Watson wins that roster spot, he could find himself in an open competition this year and capable of setting the stage for a large role in 2025. I’m purely speculating here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Payton is looking to 2025 with a plan of making a discount version of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara with Estime and either McLaughlin or Watson.

  • Emani Bailey, RB (Kansas City Chiefs)

    Age: 22 years, 5 months
    Height: 5’7”; Weight: 202 pounds

    Competition:
    -Isiah Pacheco (2 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Expiring Contract)
    -La’Mical Perine (Expiring Contract)
    -Deneric Prince (Expiring Contract)
    -Louis Rees-Zammit (3 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Keontay Ingram (Expiring Contract)
    -Hassan Hall (Expiring Contract)
    -Carson Steele (2024 UDFA)

    Emani Bailey has a fair number of deficiencies that led him to be undrafted. Bailey’s small and had very poor athletic testing making it difficult to be that confident in him. However, he’s one of the best pass-catching backs in the class and can use his elusiveness to make defenders miss in space. Bailey also holds up well in pass protection despite his size.

     

    With the Kansas City Chiefs’ backfield, it looks very congested but it’s not too hard to narrow down. Isiah Pacheco is clearly the top back and will get the bulk of the work. After that though, basically every back is on an expiring deal outside of Louis Rees-Zammit (who I’m not going to pretend I’ve watched closely since I don’t watch Rugby) and Carson Steele (who more fits the Pacheco build but is less dynamic than Pacheco and is not as good of a player as Emani Bailey in my opinion). So, a pretty wide-open room especially since Bailey is an incredibly similar player as Clyde Edwards-Helaire and could be a planned replacement for him and Jerrick McKinnon from a year ago for passing downs. La’Michal Perine, Deneric Price, Keontay Ingram, and Hassan Hall are decent players but don’t move the needle much and we’ve seen that most of them haven’t been able to provide much in the NFL during their careers.

     

    With all of that said, we can safely assume Isiah Pacheco will have a roster spot, Clyde Edwards-Helaire will likely have a roster spot thanks to his familiarity with the offense, and then it starts to get interesting. The Chiefs kept three backs for most of the season last year until Jerrick McKinnon got hurt so they could opt to do the same. So, if the final roster spot battle comes down to everyone outside Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire, that’s a very winnable battle for Emani Bailey.

     

    With Emani Bailey’s pass-catching skills, he could easily slide into the Jerrick McKinnon/Clyde Edwards-Helaire role if given the opportunity. I’m not sure if he is capable of beating out Edwards-Helaire this year due to his experience in the offense, but it’s not impossible for him to win the receiving role next year and be a flex-worthy option next year. With the number of expiring contracts and being able to be tied to a high-power offense, he’s worth stashing.

  • Xavier Weaver, WR (Cardinals)

    Age: 23 years, 8 months
    Height: 6’0”; Weight: 169 pounds

    Competition:
    -Marvin Harrison Jr. (2024 1st Round Pick)
    -Michael Wilson (3 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Greg Dortch (Expiring Contract, RFA)
    -Chris Moore (Expiring Contract)
    -Zach Paschal (Expiring Contract)
    -Tejhaun Palmer (2024 6th Round Pick)
    -Daniel Arias (Expiring Contract)
    -Andre Baccellia (Expiring Contract)
    -Dan Chisena (Expiring Contract)
    -Jeff Smith (Expiring Contract)

    If this was an article focused on day 3 receivers, I would have discussed Tejhaun Palmer here. However, with Palmer only getting round 6 draft capital, there isn’t a lot that separates him and Xavier Weaver. I actually liked Weaver more as a prospect feeling that his route running was more polished and he had better body adjustment skills to balls than Palmer. Palmer has more athletic upside, but Weaver is a more day 1 ready receiver.

     

    The Arizona Cardinals will of course be showcasing Marvin Harrison Jr. as their lead receiver. However, even with Harrison Jr. getting the bulk of the vacated targets, that will still likely leave at least 80 targets up for grabs for the other receivers. Michael Wilson is the most likely to be their second-best receiver but he has also missed at least 4 games each of the past 4 seasons dating back to college. Greg Dortch is a solid player and is capable of being a safe, reliable option, but isn’t able to provide much more than that and has a smaller stature.

     

    Past those three, it’s basically wide open with a number of expiring contracts and players who haven’t been the most productive pros. The most notable names on the list are Chris Moore who only has one season of more than 22 receptions and will turn 31 this summer, Zach Paschal who was a non-factor for a thin Cardinals receiver room last year, and the already mentioned Tejhaun Palmer who is more of a project and may be more or less redshirted this year. Also, nearly the entire receiver room is on expiring contracts outside of Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, and Tejhaun Palmer. Greg Dortch is on a restricted free agent deal so he could be back next season but it’s not a guarantee.

     

    With the Arizona Cardinals keeping five receivers last year, it could be easy to see them keeping Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch, Tejhaun Palmer, and Xavier Weaver as their five if Weaver proves himself over Chris Moore and Zach Pascal. With Michael Wilson’s injury history, Dortch having little known upside, and Palmer being a project, Weaver can push for some playing time and get some targets while Harrison Jr. gets all the attention from secondaries. Definitely a longshot, but there aren’t too many undrafted players with possible paths to a high target volume.

  • Mason Tipton, WR (New Orleans Saints)

    Age: 23 years, 7 months
    Height: 5’10”; Weight: 179 pounds

    Competition:
    -Chris Olave (2 Years Remaining on Contract + First Year Option)
    -Rashid Shaheed (Expiring Contract, RFA)
    -AT Perry (3 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Cedrick Wilson (2 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Bub Means (2024 5th Round Pick)
    -Equanimeous St. Brown (Expiring Contract)

    Mason Tipton definitely has some deficits to his game and will be in for a big adjustment going from Yale to the NFL. However, there is a lot to Tipton’s game that could lead him to develop a role with an offense. He has great hands, can make some ridiculous adjustments to catches, and has good athleticism to contribute after the catch. His route running and release will definitely need work but hopefully, he can develop in these areas.

     

    The New Orleans Saints were a team a number of people assumed was either going to target Brock Bowers if he fell or target a receiver in one of the earlier rounds since they really only have Chris Olave as a proven receiver. However, they didn’t target a receiver until round five by taking Bub Means. Kind of like Xavier Weaver/Tejhaun Palmer, we could focus on Means but with this having a focus on UDFA players, let’s take a look at Mason Tiptons’ opportunity.

     

    Past Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed is the next most proven receiver and took a nice step forward last year. After Shaheed though, things get very wide open. I’m a fan of AT Perry but he seemed to struggle to show chemistry with Derek Carr which could ultimately hold him back. Cedrick Wilson and Equanimeous St. Brown were brought in but both were relatively unproductive last year so I wouldn’t expect much from either.

     

    With Chris Olave being the only true lock into the starting lineup and Rashid Shaheed being a likely lock, it’s not impossible for Mason Tipton to fight for some playing time. An overly optimistic view would have Tipton developing a connection with Derek Carr like he has with Hunter Renfrow who might be a good ceiling projection for Tipton. However, Tipton will need to improve his route running to earn more comparisons to a player like Renfrow and will likely be more of a stash to see what happens in training camp.

  • John Rhys Plumlee, QB (Pittsburgh Steelers)

    Age: 23 years, 4 months
    Height: 6’0”; Weight: 200 pounds

    Competition (QB):
    -Russell Wilson (Expiring Contract)
    -Justin Fields (Expiring Contract)
    -Kyle Allen (Expiring Contract)

    Competition (WR):
    -George Pickens (2 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Roman Wilson (2024 3rd Round Pick)
    -Calvin Austin (2 Years Remaining on Contract)
    -Van Jefferson (Expiring Contract)
    -Quez Watkins (Expiring Contract)
    -Denzel Mims (Expiring Contract)
    -Marquez Callaway (Expiring Contract)
    -Dez Fitzpatrick (Expiring Contract)
    -Deuce Watts (Expiring Contract)

    Now this will be a bit of a weird one since John Rhys Plumlee played quarterback for most of his college career but did play receiver for Ole Miss for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. Since Plumlee most recently played quarterback, we’ll start there. Plumlee played in a gimmicky offense but showed decent accuracy with a quick release and adequate arm talent. There isn’t a lot that sells him as a starting quarterback, but he showed enough where I think he could become a solid backup or bridge quarterback.

     

    The Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback room had a big shake-up this offseason and could be in for another one next season with Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Kyle Allen all playing on expiring contracts. There isn’t an impossible scenario where they move on from all three of these players and John Rhys Plumlee is the only remaining quarterback on the roster next year. Plus, with Mike Tomlin’s ability to avoid losing records, they likely won’t be in position for a top quarterback in the 2025 draft. So, there is a fair chance that Plumlee could be used as the bridge quarterback in 2025 until they get a long-term starter and could be a cheap starter similar to how Sam Howell was for 2023.

     

    Now that is all if John Rhys Plumlee stays at quarterback. From what I’ve seen, it seems the Pittsburgh Steelers and Plumlee intend for him to play quarterback this season. However, with his past experience at receiver and his great athleticism finishing with a 4.51 40-time, 6.96 3-cone, 36.5 vertical, and 10’4” broad he could return to receiver if he wanted. If he does go to receiver, he enters a pretty thin room with George Pickens as the only established starter-capable player on the team.

     

    After George Pickens, the next capable players are Roman Wilson who is just a 3rd round rookie, Calvin Austin who was a 2022 4th round pick that missed 2022 due to injury and was mostly unproductive in 2023, Van Jefferson who seems to be declining these past few years, and Quez Watkins who wasn’t able to provide much impact for the Eagles. Denzel Mims, Marquez Callaway, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Deuce Watts are on the roster as well but haven’t proven much in their time in the league.  Also, Jefferson, Watkins, Mims, Callaway, Fitzpatrick, and Watts are all on expiring deals. So, it’s not impossible to see the receiver room get cleaned out next season.

     

    With the opportunity at quarterback and receiver, I think John Rhys Plumlee may turn into a fun stash player. There is a very real possibility that he gets beat out by Kyle Allen or fails in a conversion to receiver. However, with two routes to possible relevance and the number of expiring rosters at both spots, he is worth taking a risk on and should be another player that could be obtained after the draft.