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Every year, fantasy football coaches try their best to predict the year’s breakout star. Unfortunately, many of these predictions miss their mark, some by more than others. However, the fact remains that nailing that certain pick in your fantasy draft provides not only bragging rights but an undeniable advantage over opponents. Being able to select superstars in the first few rounds while also bringing in a surprise stud can be the ultimate key to taking home a fantasy league championship.
These are all known facts, but the question remains: how can we predict these statistical explosions, and which of this year’s crop of players will transition from role-player to offensive centerpiece? The solution is found in opportunity meeting unrealized talent head-on. Hopefully, this article will be able to shed some light on some of the more under-the-radar players that could be going in the middle or later rounds and could help you win your fantasy football league.
QB - Will Levis (Tennessee Titans)
Levis enters Year 2 as the clear starter in Tennessee as he tries to make a name for himself in the league. While I think his divisional counterparts, C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson, both have very good chances to achieve their lofty expectations, I also believe that Levis is flying under the radar a bit too much. His rookie season wasn’t perfect, but Levis delivered some extremely memorable moments through his first of many campaigns. And even though I don’t love the decision to fire Mike Vrabel, new head coach Brian Callahan’s game plan could bring growth in Levis’s production and his fantasy value.
Callahan’s 2023 Cincinnati offense averaged 36 pass attempts per game and had historically shown the ability to drive the ball down the field, something that Levis showed flashes of as a rookie. He finished the season with a very solid 4.8 air yards per attempt. This, combined with the offseason departure of superstar running back Derrick Henry, could signify more quality pass attempts for the young QB. The Titans have also made some admirable transactions in an attempt to surround Levis with both weapons and protection this offseason.
Calvin Ridley, the 4-year, 92-million dollar man, and Tyler Boyd, Callahan’s former reliable slot receiver in Cincinnati, join longtime superstar DeAndre Hopkins. Tennessee also used this year’s seventh overall pick on JC Latham, the Alabama Crimson Tide’s standout blindside-blocking offensive tackle, not to mention 2023’s 11th overall pick, Peter Skoronski. The blueprint for success has been drawn for Levis. Now, the Kentucky product must produce in his sophomore season. I think he’s been put in a great position to do just that.
QB HMs - Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson
RB - De’Von Achane (Miami Dolphins)
With a quick look at the stat sheet, Achane is one of the more impressive players we’ve seen over the last couple of years. The only player with more yards per attempt was Keaton Mitchell, who was quite impressive in his own right. Achane averaged 7.8 yards per attempt while maintaining 3.0 yards after contact per attempt, which was good enough for second among running backs who logged 40+ carries this past season. Big plays were more than common for the 2023 third-round pick as he logged the second-longest single rush in the NFL last season with an attempt that resulted in a 76-yard touchdown against the New York Giants.
According to Next Gen Stats, Achane recorded the fourth-highest top speed among ball carriers in 2023 at 21.93 mph. If you need more proof, the Texas A&M product was fifth in 20+ yard rushes, third in 30+ yard rushes, first in 40+ yard rushes, and tied for first in 50+ yard rushes among all NFL running backs during the 2023 NFL season. The only downside to Achane was the injury bug. He missed six games with multiple injuries during his rookie season and was sorely missed by many fantasy managers. Unfortunately, Miami added competition this offseason in former Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, a prospect about whom I was fairly enthused.
Additionally, Raheem Mostert still resides on Miami’s depth chart after a career year and his first career Pro Bowl selection. However, Achane proved his worth in Mike McDaniels’s explosive offense and is an obvious candidate for an uptick in carries. Mostert is getting older, and if Achane can stay healthy, his big-time play ability will be clearly on display.
In the end, Achane is a high-risk, high-reward player for fantasy managers looking for an explosive option in an equally explosive offense whose risk may be too great for other fantasy managers. A sophomore season breakout could be closer than we realize. If he stays healthy, he’s a steal.
RB HMs - Chase Brown, Zamir White
WR - Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills)
Khalil Shakir had a mini-breakout last year during his sophomore season, posting 39 receptions off of 45 targets, 611 yards, and two touchdowns. He enters 2024 as a key piece in one of the most intriguing receiving corps in the league. Shakir is one of the only returning pieces for the Bills after Stefon Diggs was traded to Houston in early April, and Gabe Davis found a new home in Jacksonville on a three-year deal via free agency.
However, Buffalo has made some solid additions to furnish their receiver room. Former Florida State receiver Keon Coleman was drafted at the top of the second round in late April in the NFL Draft. He figures to be the team’s alpha pass-catcher of the future but still needs to work out a few kinks in his game. The Bills added veterans Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins, and Chase Claypool. I believe Shakir will be able to exceed his fantasy draft capital because of his ability with the ball in his hands.
Among receivers with 30+ receptions in 2023, Shakir ranked third in yards after the catch per reception. He also produced an extremely impressive catch rate of 86%, while the next highest wide receiver had a rate of 79.5%. These statistics obviously earned the trust of Sean McDermott and the Bills’ coaching staff. During weeks 1-7, Shakir had an average snap percentage of 26%. From week 7 through the Divisional Round of the Playoffs, Shakir’s average snap percentage jumped to 69%. The Buffalo coaching staff’s familiarity and trust with Shakir, along with these extremely positive statistics, present Shakir as a potentially valuable piece with surprisingly low risk in regards to his ADP while taking into account the amount of vacated targets that Diggs and Davis are leaving behind.
Another clear plus is Josh Allen. The quarterback was fourth in passing yards and fifth in pass attempts in 2023, so the volume is available for Shakir. If you want a slot receiver with an elite quarterback, impressive YAC skills, and a low price tag, give Shakir a chance in your fantasy drafts.
WR HMs - Jameson Williams, Zay Flowers, Wan’Dale Robinson
TE - Jake Ferguson (Dallas Cowboys)
Ferguson made waves last year as one of Dak Prescott’s most reliable targets. However, his 2023 expectations were by no means through the roof after the Wisconsin product only compiled 174 yards and two touchdowns through 16 games in 2022, not much better than his then-rookie counterpart Peyton Hendershot. Ferguson’s situation worsened when the Cowboys selected Michigan tight end Luke Schoonmaker with the 58th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Regardless, Jake Ferguson put up an impressive season on the field and the stat sheet.
He finished with 71 receptions, 761 yards, and five touchdowns while cementing himself as Dallas’s top option at the tight end position and as one of the better targets in the Cowboys’ passing game. Ferguson’s true fantasy appeal lies within some of his advanced metrics. Among 2023 tight ends, he was first in red zone targets, sixth in yards after the catch, fourth in yards after contact, and sixth in broken tackles.
These statistics, combined with a ninth-place finish in receptions and an eighth-place finish in yards among that group, establish Ferguson as a stalwart in a Dallas offense with a potentially very weak running game and a receiving corps that added no significant talent this offseason. Another selling point for Ferguson is his quarterback. Dak Prescott leads an offense with volume, finishing fourth in pass attempts and first in pass completions among healthy starting QBs last season while posting near-MVP caliber numbers.
The sudden infusion of exciting young tight ends in the league may be causing fantasy managers to overlook this Dallas pass-catcher. Overall, Ferguson presents top-five upside with borderline top-ten ADP at a position that can give an advantage in fantasy lineups throughout the season.
TE HMs - Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride
