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Since being drafted in 2021, Kyle Pitts has had a somewhat discouraging start to his NFL career while simultaneously gashing fantasy football owners. After hauling in 68 catches for 1,026 yards in his rookie campaign, Pitts has had a disheartening 2nd and 3rd year. Pitts appeared in 10 games in his sophomore year before tearing his MCL, ending his season. Last year, Pitts accumulated 667 yards on 53 catches with three touchdowns, finishing the season as the TE13 in points per reception (PPR) formatted leagues.
While these numbers are above average, they are nowhere near his ceiling, considering the Atlanta Falcons drafted him with the 4th overall pick in 2021. The Falcons did not draft Pitts to be a solid player; they drafted him to be special. With an ADP of 66, Pitts promotes great value for fantasy owners. So why might Kyle Pitts be the answer at tight end?
Better Quarterback Play
Atlanta recently signed Kirk Cousins on a four-year, $180 Million deal this offseason. This deal is stunning and could have serious implications for the Falcons offense. Pitts spent his rookie year catching passes from 36-year-old Matt Ryan, leading to him averaging 9.9 PPR points per game. With Marcus Mariota in 2022, Pitts averaged 7.56 PPR points per game. In the year following, Pitts averaged 8 PPR points per game with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke.
In 2023, Cousins was on pace to have a career year. He was on pace for 4,953 yards and 38 touchdowns before tearing his Achilles in week 8. This was good for five games of 22 or more fantasy points. Kirk Cousins relied heavily on his tight end, T.J. Hockenson, in the Vikings’ offense. Furthermore, Hockenson averaged 13.8 PPR fantasy points in his 18 games with Kirk Cousins under center.
In these games, Hockenson averaged 8.5 targets in an offense with several mouths to feed (Justin Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, Jordan Addison). Through the first seven weeks of the 2023 season, Hockenson was the TE1 in PPR leagues before Cousins tore his Achilles tendon.
Through the first week of OTAs, Pitts and Cousins have begun building a strong chemistry that could be lethal on Sundays. Cousins and Pitts have also been putting in work in the film room, with Pitts praising Cousins for being so deliberate with how he plays the position. This duo can make some noise this season and put up video game numbers.
New Coaching Staff
A great amount of Kyle Pitt’s fantasy frustration stems from the system and playcalling of Arthur Smith. These frustrations generally stemmed from the lack of targets for Pitts, using him as a decoy in the endzone, or the usage of backup tight ends such as Jonnu Smith. Jonnu Smith was public enemy number one for Kyle Pitts fantasy owners, as he logged 50 receptions for 582 yards and three scores.
While backups will generally have some production on every team, Smith took way too many targets from Pitts, handicapping him from reaching his fantasy ceiling. But in 2024, there is no need to fear as Jonnu Smith has joined the Miami Dolphins.
Arthur Smith was relieved of his duties as head coach in January of 2024, and Rams former defensive coordinator Raheem Morris was given the keys. Morris brought an army with him, one of the notables being offensive coordinator Zac Robinson. Robinson spent five years with the Rams as a quarterback coach and passing game coordinator. It is quite ironic that he was under the Sean McVay coaching staff.
This is ironic because Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell also came from this coaching tree. Kirk Cousins was on pace for the best season of his career with O’Connell, so many believe that Robinson will organize a similar offensive scheme as O’Connell. This will help unlock Cousins’ full potential, allowing Pitts to benefit as a byproduct.
Smith was also criticized for his inability to get his best playmakers the ball. Robinson promised not to make the same mistake, stating that Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are versatile and will get their touches. Under Arthur Smith, Pitts spent much of his time outside in the slot, using Smith’s philosophy of “positionless” football.
Among tight ends with 50 or more targets, Pitts logged the most snaps lined up out wide. This gave Pitts tougher matchups against higher-end defensive backs who could match up with his 4.4 speed, turning him into just a glorified slot receiver.
Robinson will look to make Pitts an absolute asset in this rejuvenated offense. Pitts is expected to be lined up as a typical in-line tight end more often. This will give him more favorable matchups against linebackers and will allow him to use his speed and versatility to create more opportunities for him to feast. In 2023, Pitts was targeted 86 times with an average depth of target of 12 yards. No other tight end last year had more than 10. This is notable as Robinson’s former tight end, Tyler Higbee, had a target depth of 6.1 yards.
Even Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua did not eclipse a target depth of 10 yards. Just from a change in the offensive system, Pitts is expected to receive more targets closer to the line of scrimmage, lowering his target depth. Considering Cousins’ history of relying on tight ends, this will allow for Pitts to feast in PPR leagues.
A Healthy Start
For the previous two seasons, Kyle Pitts has struggled with a lingering knee injury. This ended his season prematurely in 2022 and continued to bother him throughout the 2023 season. Though he played in all 17 games, Pitts says that he never felt 100% for a long period. This is partially why his numbers fell compared to his rookie year. Pitts explained that he dealt with soreness and tightness throughout the week during game preparation, hindering his ability to perform on Sundays.
In 2024, his knee will not inhibit his performance. Organized team activities have commenced, and Pitts is fully healthy with no limitations. Pitts has exposed great joy and excitement about being healthy, saying that he feels like a “super rookie” with a fresh start. Atlanta has also picked up his fifth-year option, promoting that they have faith in the 23-year-old tight end.
When healthy, Pitts’ 6’6, 245lb frame makes him such a versatile weapon for this Falcons offense, as seen in his rookie year. His fresh legs, along with his top-tier speed of 4.4 40-time, will make him a problem for opposing defenses and may allow for him to have the breakout year that both the Atlanta Falcons and fantasy owners have been desiring.
Conclusion
Pitts is due for a season that Falcons fans and fantasy owners have been begging for. With a proven quarterback in the NFL, a new scheme, and a healthy knee, Pitts has no excuse to have a poor output in 2024. With an ADP of 66, Pitts could be a league winner for fantasy managers. This allows owners to use their higher-draft picks on proven fantasy workhorses while finding a gem in the middle rounds at tight end.
I understand that fans are fed up with Kyle Pitts and his underwhelming production over the last two years, but giving him one last chance may just be what pushes your fantasy team to the top.
