I’ve spent the past few weeks looking at players that I think will rise in value and some that will fall. However, knowing which of those players could truly benefit your team may depend on whether you are contending or rebuilding this year. So, I want to provide some names that would be worth targeting depending on the state of your team and start off looking at players contenders should target.
For background, I used KeepTradeCut’s Superflex rankings to get estimated values for these players. I then used players that are worth the equivalent of a 2024 1st, 2024 2nd, and 2024 3rd round pick for contenders to target. I focused on players that could outperform their current value even if they may not always have safe long-term value. So, let’s see what players should be targeted if you plan to compete this year!
Contenders
1st Round Value Target:
Josh Jacobs, RB
(Green Bay Packers)
Here’s where I bring out my Green Bay Packers fandom, but I think Josh Jacobs could be in for a great bounce-back year. After a big 2022, Jacobs had a stepback in 2023, finishing as the RB17 in points/game in PPR leagues before going down with a quad injury. After being part of an offense that struggled last year, Jacobs will be heading over to the Packers’ thriving offense to fill the void of Aaron Jones.
With Aaron Jones gone, Josh Jacobs now has a huge opportunity to work as the workhorse in the Green Bay Packers offense in the rushing and receiving game. The Packers have typically rotated backs, and with AJ Dillon still there and the team taking MarShawn Lloyd in the third round, I expect the team to try to continue this trend. That being said, I think Jacobs has plenty of opportunity to play the majority of snaps and get the majority of opportunities.
AJ Dillon has shown that he is an average player but isn’t capable of elevating the offense. Though Quadzilla has great strength, his skill set overlaps too closely with Jacobs’s while offering little additional upside, making it difficult to see the benefit in him taking snaps outside of giving Jacobs rest.
MarShawn Lloyd is a much more dynamic player who could perform better in zone run plays but struggled with vision in his college career which could be a barrier to playing time for him. Also, Lloyd consistently struggled with injuries and a very high fumble rate throughout his college career and will need to show these are in the past to sustain any playing time he earns.
With Josh Jacobs showing that he can have a floor as a mid-RB2 after the down season last year, it feels like it’s hard not to see him as an RB1 this year. Jacobs will have an immediate path to production this year, especially if MarShawn Lloyd struggles with either injuries or fumbles as he has in college.
Jacobs, basically being on a one-year contract with the team, makes it risky. However, if your team is a running back away, then Jacobs is likely one of the most affordable RB1s that you can get.
2nd Round Value Target:
Devin Singletary, RB
(New York Giants)
This one might stir a bit of controversy but I think Devin Singletary is a great buy for contenders. Across the NFL, most backfields are trending towards a committee approach making it harder to trust any back and often making it difficult to trust them on a weekly basis. On KeepTradeCut, most of the backs that are in clear workhorse positions are valued around at least a first-rounder. However, one of the cheapest exceptions is Devin Singletary.
It may have felt like a dream, but Devin Singletary managed to finish as the RB15 in points/game in PPR leagues from weeks 10 to 17 last year. That mark isn’t incredible, but it shows that Singletary has the ability to score as an RB2 when given the opportunity.
There might be a dropoff in offensive talent going from the Houston Texans to the New York Giants, but the Texans finished as a below-average team in run blocking per PFF, and the Giants have worked to improve their line to help mitigate the difference. Also, Singletary is walking into a similar situation with fairly little competition.
At the time of writing this, Devin Singletary’s biggest competition for opportunities is 2023 fifth-round rookie Eric Gray and 2024 fifth-round rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr. I did like Eric Gray coming out of his draft class, but I will be the first to admit that he doesn’t have the athleticism to be anything more than a back-up level player.
Tracy Jr. has more upside but is also extremely raw and still learning the position after transitioning from receiver. Between being a better player than Gray and having more of an understanding of the position than Tracy Jr., Singletary has a clear leg up on his competition.
Few, if any, running backs that can definitely be obtained for a second will have the volume opportunity that Devin Singletary should have this upcoming season. When I’m competing, I personally chase volume backs, as their high floor gives you a chance in most weekly matchups. Singletary might not win you matchups, but he will be a valuable asset to a lineup and keep you in games.
3rd Round Value Target
Darnell Mooney, WR
(Atlanta Falcons)
Finishing out the list for contenders, we have potentially the least talked about WR2 for a team, Darnell Mooney. After the 2021 season, Darnell Mooney seemed like an ascending player, but his 2022 season was derailed by an ankle injury, and he struggled to connect with Justin Fields in 2023. Mooney gets a chance to revitalize his career after getting a fairly large contract from the Atlanta Falcons to play with Kirk Cousins.
The Atlanta Falcons, of course, have Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson, who will likely get the bulk of the work. However, competition thins out quickly past them. Mooney’s only remaining serious competition for targets is Rondale Moore, who projects more as a slot, designed touch type of player. This gives Mooney a clear opportunity to serve as the team’s Z receiver and be on the field nearly every play.
The Atlanta Falcons were a run-first team last year, but with the change in coaching staff and the addition of Kirk Cousins, I expect them to be a pass-friendly team. Also, I would expect the Falcons to play more three-wide receiver sets with the shift to a Sean McVay-like offense.
This will undoubtedly benefit the receivers and leave enough opportunity for Darnell Mooney, even with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, and Bijan Robinson getting more opportunities.
Darnell Mooney’s tendency to get plays through vertical targets may be frustrating to trust on a weekly basis. However, his likely playing time and opportunity in what should be a good offense is hard to come by. For the low price of a third-round pick, I think he is an easy target for anyone looking for a bye-week player or high-upside player.
