With the preseason nearly here, I think it’s about time to get some hot takes that surely won’t bite me by the end of the year. For this, I have 10 hot takes with two quarterback takes, two running back takes, two receiver takes, one tight end take, and even one kicker, defense, and general hot take to have some variety. Let me know what hot takes you have for the upcoming season and let’s get started with the takes!

1. Daniel Jones Will Be a High-End QB2 With a Number of QB1 Finishes

I was looking at early ADP data and I was surprised how low Daniels Jones is right now. At the time of writing this article, Jones is sitting at QB26 in ADP on Underdog and #23 in ESPN’s quarterback rankings. I understand the pessimism with Jones due to the injury last year, the poor play in games he did play, and the questionable talent surrounding Jones. However, this feels like it’s way too low and a great opportunity for a bargain late in drafts.

If we look back at Daniel Jones’ last healthy season in 2022, Jones finished as the 14th-highest quarterback in points per game in 6-point passing touchdown leagues. Jones accomplished this despite Richie James, Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Daniel Bellinger being his top receiving threat. The New York Giants did lose Saquon Barkley in free agency and I’m not going to pretend that Jones had a huge upgrade for his pass catches.

However, Malik Nabers is easily the most talented receiver Jones will have gotten a chance to play with in his entire NFL career. Finally having a great number one receiver to pair with solid ancillary receivers like Slayton, Wan’Dale Robinson, Jalin Hyatt, and Allen Robinson will give Jones the best set of pass catchers he has ever had in his career.

Also, with the departure of Saquon Barkley, I could see Daniel Jones relying on his legs even more leading to more rushing yards and rushing touchdowns adding to his upside. I also have faith in Brian Daboll to get the most out of Jones and adjust the offense to make the most of their current personnel. Maybe this is a hot take as well, but I think Daboll is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL right now and I think there is a chance he shows why this coming season.

Regardless of your thoughts on Daniel Jones, I think it’s easy to envision the potential value of a quarterback with the rushing upside Jones has that is paired with a good offensive play caller and a real number one receiver. I’m not ready to say that Daniel Jones will be a QB1 this coming season. However, I think he will be a consistent high-end QB2 with his rushing numbers and will have a fair number of QB1 finishes when he develops chemistry with Malik Nabers.

2. Russell Wilson Will Rebound and Will Be a High-End QB2

This one might feel disgusting just imagining the pairing of Russell Wilson and Arthur Smith. This pairing puts Wilson’s ADP at QB30 on Underdog and #27 in ESPN’s quarterback rankings. That being said, I think this pairing could have some sneaky value.

I’m not going to pretend that Russell Wilson played great football last season, but he did finish as the QB14 in points per game in 6-point passing touchdown leagues. Even if we use Wilson’s 2022 season, his first season with the Denver Broncos, he still finished as the QB24 in points per game. So if we use that as his floor, he still should exceed his current expectations thanks to still having rushing ability and a strong arm.

Also, while the Arthur Smith experience as a head coach was painful for fantasy owners, Smith as an offensive coordinator is a different story. When he was offensive coordinator for the Tennessee Titans, he helped lead Ryan Tannehill to finish as the QB9 in 2019 and QB12 in 2020 in points per game. As much as Wilson has struggled, I still view him as a better quarterback than Tannehill and I could see the pair helping rebound both of their careers. Smith is at his best when he isn’t able to get in his own way and when he doesn’t have Desmond Ridder as his quarterback and I think he will get some respect back after this season.

This one might be hard to envision but that is why I think it’s an easy opportunity to target late in drafts. I’d be lying if I see too many weeks with QB1 finishes for Russell Wilson this year since I think the team will have a run-first mentality. However, I think Wilson will be more than a capable stopgap for teams looking for a good bye week or plugin player depending on the matchup.

3. Josh Jacobs Will Finish the Season as a Top-Five Back

Time for me to show my favoritism as a Green Bay Packers fan. If you've read some of my other articles this offseason, you would know that I’ve been banging the drum of the upside Josh Jacobs has this coming year. To not sound like too much of a broken record, I’ll try to keep it brief.

At the time of writing this article, Josh Jacobs is the RB12 on Underdog and #16 in ESPN’s running back rankings. It’s probably obvious from my take, but I think RB12 is a bit too low and the #16 running back is criminally too low and more of a product of overreacting to Jacobs’ 2023 season. However, even as bad as last season, Jacobs still finished as the RB12 in points per game in PPR prior to the team’s bye week and his injury in week 14.

With Jacobs still having that good of a weekly output despite being on a terrible Las Vegas Raiders offense and now transitioning to a much more potent Packers offense, I just have a hard time seeing Jacobs finish lower than an RB1 this season.

I think the biggest concern for Josh Jacobs is that Green Bay rotates their running backs and this will limit Jacobs’ upside. While there is truth to the Packers using rotations with their backs in the past, Jacobs’ competition is pretty minimal right now. AJ Dillon is still on the team but the team reluctantly brought him back on a small one-year deal mostly due to his familiarity with the offense. Also, his skillset aligns a bit too closely with Jacobs and Jacobs is clearly the better player making Dillon redundant and unlikely to get many opportunities.

The team did draft MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL draft, but Lloyd has struggled with injuries and an extremely high rate of fumbles in college which are two of the biggest things that can lose a rookie back playing time.

While I understand being frustrated with Josh Jacobs if he was a disappointment for your team last year, I think we need to recognize the new situation and opportunity he has. With Jacobs’ upside as a pass catcher and goal line back, he is built to be a fantasy producer. If the opportunity to play the majority of the snaps is there like I expect it to be, I think Jacobs will return to his 2022 form and be a strong asset for any team.

4. Rhamondre Stevenson Will Bounce Back and Be the RB1 Everyone Expected Last Season

Like Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson disappointed a lot of teams last year finishing as the RB27 in points per game in PPR. That poor performance and questions about the New England Patriots offense have caused his ADP on Underdog to be at RB20 and #18 in ESPN’s running back rankings. Like Jacobs though, I think Stevenson is set to rebound this coming season.

Despite the poor statistical season this past year, the team made it clear they trust Rhamondre Stevenson by giving him an extension this offseason. Also, after watching a fair amount of the New England Patriots last season to see what was going wrong with their offense, I routinely saw the biggest issues being predictable play calling and poor offensive line play getting in the way of the offense. Stevenson did see a drop in his yards after contact, but this was primarily due to plays being blown up before he could get started.

Fast forward to this year, the New England Patriots have had a regime change promoting Jero Mayo to head coach, bringing in Alex Van Pelt as offensive coordinator, and bringing in Jacoby Brissett and Drake Maye to compete for the quarterback position. It remains to be seen what we can expect from Mayo but Van Pelt is coming from the Cleveland Browns where he has helped lead one of the most consistent and strong running games in the NFL for the past few years which bodes well for Rhamondre Stevenson.

Also, Brissett was with Van Pelt in 2022 so he has familiarity with the scheme if he plays and the potential of Drake Maye coming in to start later in the year to add a potential spark to the offense. I think either quarterback will be better for Stevenson than Mac Jones last year, especially since JJ Zachariason has previously found that running backs tend to have better fantasy finishes with rookie quarterbacks.

Rhamondre Stevenson just screams value to me. I think the contract extension and getting to see what the team’s offense looks like in the preseason may bring up his ranking. However, I still think he will likely be a value option late in drafts and could provide a team with an RB1 later in the draft.

5. Curtis Samuel Will Outperform ADP and Be the Top-Performing Bills Wide Receiver

Like Josh Jacobs, I’ve made my thoughts pretty clear on what I expect from Curtis Samuel this coming season. I know I said I was going to keep my section on Jacobs brief but I truly will keep this section short due to having a pretty lengthy article looking at the Buffalo Bills pass catchers with a lot of in-depth details on all of their relevant receivers. If you want to check out that article for full context, you can check it out with this link:

How to Handle the Buffalo Bills Receivers in 2024 Fantasy Football

In summary, I think the departure of Stefon Diggs has opened up the Z position for the Buffalo Bills and Curtis Samuel best profiles as a player capable of taking over this spot. Also, Samuel’s familiarity with Bills’ offensive coordinator Joe Brady and being paired with the best quarterback he’s gotten the chance to play with in his career give him the best ceiling he has ever had.

I purposely put that Samuel will be the Bills’ top-performing wide receiver since I think Dalton Kincaid will be the top-performing pass catcher for the team. However, I think Samuel has WR2 upside despite being ranked much lower than this on most sites.

6. Jahan Dotson Will Break Out and Be a Steal in Later Rounds

Jahan Dotson is another player I’ve hitched a wagon on a fair amount this offseason. I was a big fan of Dotson when he was coming out of college and he showed flashes as a rookie as he was on pace to finish with 50 receptions, 740 yards, and ten touchdowns before missing 5 games with a hamstring injury. Dotson did regress in 2023 but I saw this more of a product of the poor play calling of Eric Bieniemy, poor play from both Sam Howell and the offensive line.

Fast forward to this year, and the team has transitioned to Kliff Kingsbury as their offensive coordinator. I still have some reservations about Kingsbury as an NFL coordinator, but he is good for fantasy players and their performances. His high rate of three-wide receiver sets and high pass rate give a lot of opportunities for pass catchers and typically provide a high play rate for opportunities for all offensive players.

Also, the team drafted Jayden Daniels with the number two overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft. Daniels isn’t a perfect player and will have some growing pains, but he is a clear upgrade over Sam Howell. Also, Daniels excelled at LSU with Malik Nabers who got a ton of his production in similar types of routes that Jahan Dotson specializes in.

Though the team didn’t make major improvements in the offensive line, they did make some strides and a more consistent offense could also help. Jahan Dotson is basically free in most drafts despite him having the upside of a WR2 in a pass-heavy offense.

If Jayden Daniels hits the ground running, I think Dotson could finish as a low-end WR2. That being said, I think he more than likely will become a strong flex player who has some big performances depending on the matchup.

I know, we’ve seen this take from everyone the past five seasons and it hasn’t happened yet. Everyone has been trying to predict when the fall of Travis Kelce will finally happen but we just seem to keep looking too trigger happy in predicting his fall. However, I think this is the year when he finally sees other tight ends finally push him out of finishing as a top-five scorer for the position.

Starting with a look at Travis Kelce’s situation, he still is paired with Patrick Mahomes who is the best quarterback in the league and the two have some of the best chemistry of any quarterback and pass catcher out there. The issue though comes in the supporting cast around Kelce. This is arguably the deepest the Kansas City Chiefs have been with pass catchers since Kelce arrived.

The team still has Rashee Rice who should put in another strong season but has some questions regarding a likely suspension, added Marquise Brown who has been a very good player when healthy, and added Xavier Worthy with the 28th overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft.

Also, the tight end position seems like it’s poised for a renaissance across the league with young tight ends like Sam LaPorta, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and Jake Ferguson having breakout years last season. Outside of these rising players, you also have Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, George Kittle, and David Njoku who continued to have good seasons, and possible risers like Kyle Pitts and Brock Bowers.

So, the position is just so deep that there is a ton of competition to even finish in the top 5 this year regardless of Kelce’s competition on his own team. With the added competition to Travis Kelce’s own team and the competition at the position across the league, it’s potentially easier than ever to envision Kelce barely missing the top 5 in scoring for the position.

I don’t think it will be a major drop-off since I think he will still be a very solid scorer and will still be a TE1. However, I think he will end up being a reach at his current ADP and ranking.

8. The Los Angeles Chargers Defense Will Be a Top-Ten-Scoring Defense

I don’t believe the Los Angeles Chargers defense is ranked that low on most sites, but from what I’ve seen from early ADP data, this is a fairly hot take. I think many people are passing on the Chargers’ defense after getting burned for the past few years. It’s hard to have not fallen for the Chargers’ defense the past few years since they have several star players on their defense but always seem to have average finishes due to underperformance as a team or injury. However, I see them finally delivering on their potential this coming season.

I think the addition of Jim Harbaugh, Jesse Minter, and even Greg Roman will be vital for this take coming to fruition. I think Harbaugh and Minter will bring toughness and disciplined play to the team’s defense they have been lacking at times in the past. Also, Roman’s offense isn’t known for its fast pace of play and has an emphasis on the run game. So, slowing down the offense and keeping the clock running will also limit the other team’s offense’s ability to score and hurt the Los Angeles Chargers’ defensive scoring finishes.

Also, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will still likely put up good numbers against the Los Angeles Chargers, but the rest of the teams in their division are in transition periods right now. The Denver Broncos will likely be going to rookie Bo Nix this year and the Las Vegas Raiders will either be using journeyman Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell who was an average rookie last year. So, most of their division matchups look like good opportunities for the team’s defense to have good finishes.

The Chargers also have some good matchups against unproven offenses including the Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans, and New England Patriots which could provide good weeks for the defense depending on how those teams look.

Between the talent on the defense, the transition of the teams in their division, and the potential for a good schedule, the Los Angeles Chargers feel positioned to be a top-ten defense this season. I think it wouldn’t be unreasonable to expect a top-five finish, but the questions about the rest of their schedule and what those offenses will look like make me not confident going that far.

9. Cairo Santos Will Be a Top-Five Fantasy Kicker

I originally wasn’t planning to have a kicker take on here but I was looking at some rankings for kickers and was pretty shocked at how low Cairo Santos was ranked. I saw him around the #14 kicker on Yahoo and ESPN. I get it, it’s a kicker. But, being the #14 kicker after being a top 5 kicker in most league formats is bizarre to me.

I think kickers are hard to predict and that is a big reason why they aren’t in a lot of leagues anymore. However, what I’ve usually had success with in targeting kickers is targeting a kicker who has good deep accuracy past 40 yards and is on a good offense but one that may not finish drives consistently. Santos has the deep accuracy finishing eight of ten from 40 to 49 yards and seven of eight from 50 yards and further.

Also, I think the Chicago Bears offense will be much improved this year with the additions of Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen, but I’m not certain they will be consistent at finishing drives for most of the year. Rookie quarterbacks can struggle to finish drives and this is why I often try to target kickers paired with rookie quarterbacks.

Also, the Bears lack a true goal line back who can routinely finish drives in the red zone with D’Andre Swift’s smaller build not being ideal for this role and Roschon Johnson still being an unproven player.

With the combination of past success, good deep accuracy, and an offense that may need to be reliant on their kicker, I think the opportunity for Santos is being overlooked. I understand the hesitation with targeting an outdoor kicker. However, Santos has the opportunity and has proven capable of delivering and should exceed his current expectations.

10. There Is Too Much of a Focus on Who Is Playing the X Position in Offenses

Now, for a general hot take that I’ve considered making an article on or just making a post or comment about that I really want to discuss. For the past year, I’ve seen Matt Harmon and Reception Perception rise to the spotlight that they deserve for the quality of work that they provide. I’ve actually been a subscriber to their site for two years now and would highly recommend it. However, with their rise, I think there has been more of a focus on some of their terms and phrases rather than what they truly mean.

I’ve seen so many posts and discussions about “who is the team’s X receiver,” with the expectation that this player will definitely play the highest number of snaps for the team. In theory and in the past, this was a standard line of thinking since the X receiver did play the most snaps on nearly every NFL team. However, today’s NFL has changed with more of an emphasis on positional versatility and players often not being stuck to labels and positions.

Matt Harmon and other experts have actually spoken about this change in trend but I still see people focus on “who the X receiver is,” in part due to Harmon and his team referencing the X receiver in a number of his articles and videos.

I was actually curious how big the position versatility trend has been in the NFL and it was pretty surprising with only 14 teams having their X receiver play the most snaps on a per game basis when adjusting for injuries. This is also a high estimate of this statistic as there are some teams that don’t truly have their top playing receiver play a true X position but I still included them in that 14.

Also, this number was also helped due to some teams having their X receiver as their most talented receiver which made it even easier to justify them playing more. So, what’s really happening in the NFL is a team focusing on playing their most talented receivers to give them the most opportunity to make plays.

As I mentioned, though I think some of this thought process stems from individuals watching and reading Reception Perception, I don’t think they are trying to cause this. I think this is more of a case of individuals getting tied up on terms and phrases without getting the full context from them. I think we could continue seeing some act on this belief but it could lead to opportunities for others to target non-X receivers.