The top of the running back position is a mess for fantasy football. In 2023, of the top 12 drafted running backs by Sleeper average draft position (ADP) in half PRR leagues, only two met or exceeded their draft price, while four finished outside the top 24. Many fantasy managers found success drafting running backs in the middle portion of drafts such as James Conner (RB23 in ADP), Alvin Kamara (RB25), Rachaad White (RB28), Isiah Pacheco (RB29), and James Cook (RB30).
Those five running backs were going between rounds 6 and 8 in 12-team leagues and outperformed their positional ADP by more than 13 spots on average last year. With the prevalence of Zero-RB and Hero-RB strategies, it’s as important as ever to take a deep look into the middle rounds of fantasy drafts this year and see where you can get value on the running back position. In this series, I’ll identify the 5 running backs primed to outperform their ADP rounds 6-8 of fantasy drafts and help catapult your team to a coveted fantasy championship.
In this edition of the “Mid-Round Values” series, we’ll look at Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner, currently being drafted as the RB19 on Sleeper in the 6th round. Below I’ll explain how a rejuvenated offence will have James Conner finish as a top 12 running back this season.
Running Back Workload
In this series, there are several running backs I’m projecting to have breakout years that bring them into the top 12 running back conversation – players that haven’t done it recently (or ever) but have a situation that could elevate them into that discussion.
That is not James Conner. Conner has been steadily positioned as a top-12 fantasy running back over the past three seasons. His points per game (PPG) fantasy finishes have been RB6 in 2021, RB10 in 2022 and RB10 again this past season. So why is he being drafted as the RB19? Trey Benson.
Benson, a rookie running back out of Florida State, was selected by the Cardinals with the 66th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, making him the 2nd running back off the board. Add in that Conner just turned 29 this spring and we can see that the market is pricing in more of a timeshare than we’ve seen the past few years in Arizona.
I like Trey Benson and think he’s a great player for your Dynasty leagues, but James Conner is not ready to give up the starting job in Arizona, and the coaching staff doesn’t plan for him to. Beat writers in Arizona have repeated this point since Benson was drafted through to training camp – James Conner will get the bulk of the carries.
The coaching staff has also been clear with how they feel about Conner. When Cardinals Head Coach Jonathan Gannon was asked during offseason activities what kind of leader James Conner is, Gannon replied: “It would take me an hour”, before heaping praise on Conner’s leadership, his work ethic, and what he means to the team.
In that same interview, Gannon was asked whether Conner’s age could contribute to him slowing down, to which he responded: “I just go by what I see on the tape… the tape looked like he’s a young buck to me.”
While Conner is the clear leader of this backfield, his fantasy output doesn’t require him to be out there every play. The Cardinals were 4th in the NFL last season in rushing yards. That’s a large pie to split up and allows Benson to get some carries alongside Conner, with Conner still producing for fantasy. In 13 games last season, Conner only played 75% or more of snaps twice and still finished as the RB10 on a PPG basis. His production does not depend on being a complete workhorse.
Offensive Reinforcements
The Cardinals faced an abnormal 2023 season in which their franchise Quarterback Kyler Murray missed the first 9 games of the season recovering from ACL surgery. In Murray’s absence, the team started the season 1-8.
In the final 8 games with Murray back the team went 3-5, and it can be argued that no one benefited more from Murray’s return than James Conner. In the 8 games that Conner and Murray played together, Conner was on pace to be the fantasy RB4 for the season, including 5 straight games to finish the season where Conner was a top 12 running back for fantasy.
Running backs often benefit from a better overall offence and James Conner is no exception. In 2024, not only will Kyler Murray be available from week 1, but the Cardinals added rookie Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison has been referred to by scouts as a generational prospect and will likely enter the season as the best wide receiver on the team. That type of talent infusion into the offence will give Conner more room to operate as the team will be less predictable, while also helping move the chains, giving Conner more scoring opportunities.
Injuries and Efficiency
Conner has yet to play in a full slate of games in a season throughout his career. He’s played in 13 games each of the past two seasons. That inability to play an entire season has resulted in his season-long fantasy finishes looking worse than his PPG averages. While having your running back be healthy for 17 games a season would be ideal for fantasy football, I believe Conner’s missed time is counting against him more than it should.
Trying to project which running backs will miss time due to injury in a given season is a losing game. San Fransico 49ers Running Back Christian McCaffrey was once looked at as an injury-prone player before going on to be the embodiment of health the past two years in San Fransisco, only missing one game across those two seasons.
Miami Dolphins Running Back Raheem Mostert only played 12+ games in a season once in his first 7 seasons in the league before playing in 16 and 15 games in the last two seasons while being in his 30s. The point is you can’t project injuries at the running back position.
Even if you do expect Conner to miss a few games, fantasy managers tend to overestimate the negative impact that has on your team. Throughout a season Running Backs are the easiest position to find spot starters, and it’s likely that you already roster a 3rd and maybe even 4th Running Back that can fill in if Conner misses time. Conner’s efficiency when he is healthy more than makes up for a few weeks where you may need to find a streamer for the position if he misses time.
That efficiency can be seen across almost every statistical rushing category. Last year, Conner ranked 6th in the NFL in yards per attempt among qualified running backs, 2nd in yards after contact per attempt, and 4th in 10+ yard runs despite missing 4 games on the season. Conner was also efficient on the goal line. Among 36 Running Backs with more than 5 attempts within the 5-yard line, Conner had the 3rd highest yards per attempt.
Summary
James Conner has finished in the top 10 in fantasy points per game each of the past three seasons, yet he is being drafted as the RB19 on Sleeper this year. With a healthy Kyler Murray and improvements across the offence, Conner will benefit from a higher scoring unit.
While the Cardinals brought in a new running back through the draft, it’s been clear from both the coaching staff and media around the team that Conner will continue to be the clear leader of this backfield. Conner has shown no signs of decline, posting his highest rushing yardage total of his career just last season.
Conner’s efficiency from last year, especially once Murray returned for the 2nd half of the season, was near the top of the league across most rushing metrics. There’s little indication that either that efficiency or his volume will decline, leaving health as the only obstacle to a top-12 season from Conner.
At an ADP in the 6th round of 12-team leagues, going as RB19 off the board, Conner should well outperform his draft slot and provide low-end RB1 stats for your team this season.
