Your fantasy football draft can make or break your season. Sure, you can trade, hit the waiver wire, and plan for bye weeks, but the draft will be the single biggest reason your season is successful (or not).  Until recently, I drafted the guys I felt carried the least risk, but I have realized that is a great recipe for a good season but almost never gives you the star power you need to win it all. Instead, I now play to win. That means taking risks that might land me near the bottom of the league, but I’m willing to take that chance.

This article looks at my top 10 players who I feel have a legitimate chance of outperforming their ADP but also carry a big risk of being a bust.  While I wouldn’t recommend filling a whole team with these types of guys, getting one or two gives you a big boost if they hit.  Choose a guy or two you feel bullish about, and let him carry your team alongside your early-round superstars.

In creating this list, I avoided rookies because we all know that rookies can have a wide range of outcomes. I also tried to make sure I had a few guys at every position. There are many other names you could put on here, but here are my top ten.

NOTE: The listed ADP is an average of five different websites, so it may vary slightly from the specific platform you use.  Additionally, all stats used are from PPR leagues for consistency.

10. Davante Adams

WR, Las Vegas Raiders

Average ADP: WR10

Boom Case

Davante Adams’ best-case scenario is simple. He continues to be the same receiver we’ve seen his whole career. Even in last year, which was a down year for him due to poor quarterback play, he finished as WR10. The year before, he was the WR3. In fact, he has been in the top 10 WR in six of the last eight seasons. As far as receivers go, Adams is as close to QB-proof as they come and has proven that he can produce at a high level regardless of the situation.

Gardner Minshew should be an upgrade over Aidan O’Connell, and the only target competition that was added was a rookie tight-end in Brock Bowers. Additionally, he received over 170 targets last year, so even if that number declines significantly, he will be in line for a huge target share and plenty of opportunities. Looking at it from this perspective, you’re drafting Adams at his floor.

Bust Case

There’s not a lot to like about Adams’ situation. He will turn 32 years old this year, he’s on a team with very little offensive firepower, and he was very inefficient with the targets he got last year.  His WR10 season last year was a dropoff from years past and maybe the beginning of his downfall as he ages past his prime.

While Minshew may be a slight QB upgrade, he’s still firmly a bottom-half of the league QB talent. Brock Bowers may sneakily eat into quite a bit of Adams’ targets if he can earn Minshew’s trust as a safety net.

9. Kyle Pitts,

TE, Atlanta Falcons

Average ADP: TE7

Boom Case

Kyle Pitts was the earliest drafted TE in history when the Falcons took him fourth overall in the 2021 draft. His talent is undeniable, and he ended as TE6 in his rookie season with Matt Ryan at quarterback. Since then, he has had abysmal QB play, which has hindered his ability to produce, but this year, he has Kirk Cousins slinging the football and new coaches replacing the run-heavy Arthur Smith. Despite entering his fourth season in the league, he is the same age as Sam Laporta and younger than Dalton Kincaid.

He has all the potential in the world and, finally, a QB to back it up. If he had been able to put up TE6 numbers as a rookie, just imagine what he could have done in his 4th year now that he had a competent offense around him.

Bust Case

Kyle Pitts has a history of underachieving despite very minimal target competition. Even if the Falcons do throw the ball more than normal, Bijan Robinson and Drake London will both require numerous targets. While Kirk Cousins is far superior to Desmond Ridder on paper, he is coming off of an injury and may not look like himself.

The offense all has to learn a new scheme, and it may take a year for them to settle in. Pitts’ last two finishes of TE13 and TE33 tell you all you need to know about the dangers of taking him as your TE7.

8. Najee Harris

RB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Average ADP: RB25

Boom Case

Najee Harris has finished better than RB25 in all three seasons in the league, reaching as high as RB3 in his rookie season. To be clear, I’m not predicting that kind of a season; merely stating that RB25 is the floor of his first three seasons. The Steelers brought on Arthur Smith as their offensive coordinator, which bodes well for the number of carries Smith should expect to get.

The Steelers’ offensive line should be improved, and the defense should keep them from being blown out and having to throw the ball to catch up. While he may not be the most efficient back, Harris has shown that he can produce numbers when given the opportunity.

Bust Case

The trajectory of Harris’ first three years is dreadful. After a promising rookie campaign finishing RB3, he dropped to RB14 and then RB23 over the following two seasons. At the same time, Jaylen Warren has seen his role increase in the backfield, leading to much more of a committee approach than Harris had in his first season.

Arthur Smith’s effect isn’t guaranteed, as we saw Bijan Robinson fall short of expectations last year. It’s within the realm of possibility that Warren outproduces Harris or that both fail to produce starting-quality fantasy stats.

7.  CJ Stroud

QB, Houston Texans

Average ADP: QB5

Boom Case

This is pretty straightforward. Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons as a QB in recent memory. Tank Dell came back from injury, Nico Collins signed a contract extension, and the team went out and signed Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon. This Texans offense is loaded with players and should produce some great offensive showings.

While you may not be sure which receiver to bet on, by getting Stroud, you are betting on all of them. Barring injury, Stroud and the offense look poised for a huge year.

Bust Case

The term “bust” is used pretty loosely here because Stroud should have a relatively high floor.  The question is whether or not he can live up to his QB5 ADP. With limited rushing upside, Stroud’s ceiling is a bit lower than some of his counterparts. With over 4,000 yards last year and a 23-5 TD-INT ratio, he was still only the QB11. On top of that, teams now have a year of film on Stroud and the rest of the offense and can add new wrinkles and dimensions to their defense.

Last year, Stroud had the advantage of having film on the opponents, but they didn’t have film on him. It is worth noting if you play in a league with 6-point passing touchdowns, his profile increases quite a bit.

6. DJ Moore

WR, Chicago Bears

 Average ADP: WR19

Boom Case

For a few years, DJ Moore seemed like a great receiver in real life who struggled to put up good fantasy football numbers due to poor quarterback play and an overall anemic offense. Last year, he was paired with Justin Fields, and he broke out in a major way, finishing as WR6.

Now the Bears bring in Caleb Williams, who will throw at times when Fields would have run, and DJ Moore is the presumed WR1 on his team. He doesn’t have to be nearly as good as he was last year to still outperform his ADP and be well worth the pick.

Bust Case

DJ Moore has never been in a situation with this much target competition. Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze are both great receivers themselves, and Cole Kmet hasn’t left either. With a rookie quarterback, it’s likely that a veteran like Allen or a tight end like Kmet could become the safety nets for Williams, and Moore could be much more starved for targets. He could be in a situation similar to Mike Williams’s for years next to Keenan Allen.

While I think Moore is a better receiver, he also has more target competition than just Allen. Williams finished anywhere from WR12 to WR46 alongside Allen. While Moore has talent, the target share is in serious doubt.

5.  Zamir White

RB Las Vegas Raiders

Average ADP: RB23

Boom Case

Josh Jacobs is gone, and White’s biggest competition is Alexander Mattison and Dylan Laube. With either Gardner Minshew or Aidan O’Connell at QB, this team isn’t exactly poised to break any records through the air, so White should get as much volume as any RB outside the top 5 or so, guys. In the final four weeks of the season with coach Antonio Pierce at the helm, we saw White average over 20 rushes, 14 points, and an average of an RB15 finish. This was all with just one touchdown in those games, so he could see some positive regression in that area as well.

For his price, Zamir could sneakily end up as a high-end RB2 or, in a best-case scenario, a low-end RB1. His upside is a guy like Tony Pollard last year who, after sitting behind Ezekiel Elliott, finally got to take over as the lead back and ended as RB14. With Pollard having what was considered a disappointing season by many, it isn’t too much of a stretch to see White having similar fantasy scoring.

Bust Case

White’s biggest competition is Mattison, who should serve as a cautionary tale. After years of sitting behind Dalvin Cook, Mattison was ready for his turn as the lead back. Not only that, Mattison excelled when given the opportunity when Cook was out. Nonetheless, Mattison ended as the RB38 last year. That type of season would not be surprising for White on a team with little offensive firepower.

On bad offenses, there are fewer points to go around, and on top of that, the team will more often have to play catch-up, which leads to more passing than running. White may be a good player, but that doesn’t mean he’ll have any kind of fantasy success.  

4. Travis Kelce

TE, Kansas City Chiefs

Average ADP: TE2

Boom Case

This may seem like an odd inclusion, given that Kelce is being drafted as the TE2; there isn’t a lot of room to beat his ADP.  What we have seen from Kelce in the past, however, are seasons that are so dominant that the gap between himself and the rest of the tight ends can win you a league. That type of production is what you want if you draft Kelce as TE1 or TE2 this year. He seems to be recovered from the injury he had last year, which should get him back to the vintage Kelce we know.

Kelce also was in a rare situation last year when he had too little target competition. Too many times, teams would devote two or even three defenders to Kelce, which limited him. His best seasons came with Tyreek Hill able to take pressure off of him. With Marquise Brown, Rashee Rice, and Xavier Worthy, Kelce should have more single coverage and be able to take advantage of his unique connection with Patrick Mahomes.

Bust Case

Travis Kelce is entering his age-35 season and showed signs of slowing down last year. Now that the Chiefs seem to finally have some other competent receivers, they will not need to rely on Kelce nearly as much. Given that the Chiefs mindset is “Superbowl or bust,” they may try to focus on keeping him fresh during the regular season as much as they’re able.

Given the depth at the tight end position this year, if Kelce isn’t able to produce like he was a few years ago, he isn’t worth spending a high pick on.

3.  Jameson Williams

WR, Detroit Lions

Average ADP: WR49

Boom Case

Jameson Williams has a lot of potential built into him. After a great year at Alabama in the 2021 season, he was drafted in the first round by the Lions. His issues staying on the field are well-documented, but we’ve never truly gotten to see what he can do. The reports out of training camp look great; he has no big competition for the WR2 spot and is going to an offense with a great recent track record of production.

Despite their numerous targets, the Lions don’t have a guy who’s great for stretching the field, which is just what Williams hopes to do. In Ben Johnson’s offense, it isn’t hard to imagine supporting Amon-Ra St. Brown and another top-30 WR, which is well above Williams’ current ADP.

Bust Case

Potential is a dangerous word. It can blind us to the realities of a player’s track record of production. Even when Williams has been on the field, he has not done a whole lot. He has finished WR82 and WR154 in the past two years. Even though his price isn’t extremely high, there are guys you can get that are much more reliable at the same price point.

In an offense with St. Brown, Sam Laporta, and Jahmyr Gibbs, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Williams hasn’t proven that he can produce at any serious level in the NFL.

2. Justin Herbert

QB, Las Angeles Chargers

Average ADP: QB17

Boom Case

Even in a year where the Chargers offense was miserable, and Herbert only played 13 games, he still ended as QB17. The year before, he was QB11. He may not be breaking any records this year, but you’re drafting him at his floor as QB17.

He has proven what he can do at the NFL level, and the team is bad enough that he may have to air it out a lot to keep them in games. It’s easy to forget that we are only a couple years removed from him being the QB2 overall. He has all the talent in the world.

Bust Case

Herbert’s supporting cast was decimated this offseason. His top targets, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, are gone. Austin Ekeler, who excelled at getting the easy check-down passes, is also gone. Who is still here? Joshua Palmer and the disappointing Quinten Johnston are the top remaining receivers, with Ladd McConkey being the most exciting addition. In have come Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman, who are known for a very run-heavy offense.

Justin Herbert missed games last year due to injury and has had some lingering injuries at camp. There’s nothing in this offense that points to a top-16 finish.

1. De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins

Average ADP: RB10

Boom Case

If you watched Achane at all last year, this case almost makes itself. He is absurdly efficient with his touches and is a highlight waiting to happen. With Mostert aging and having an injury history, there’s a good chance his only competition for touches is rookie back Jaylen Wright. Even if he does have competition, he doesn’t rely on high volume in nearly the same way many other players do and can produce even in an offense that relies heavily on Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

Achane is one of the only players outside the top 3-4 running backs that I think has legitimate RB1 overall upside. That would require him to stay healthy, but that’s true for everyone. RB1 upside being drafted at RB10 could hurt you… or it could win you the league.

Bust Case

Achane was very efficient last year. In fact, he was so efficient that it is probably wise to expect a regression. With Mostert being a touchdown vulture and the Dolphins spending a fourth-round pick on Wright, there are a lot of mouths to feed. We’ve seen one-hit wonders before (does anyone remember Peyton Hillis?), and there’s no guarantee that Achane can replicate what he did last year. Even though he was great on a per-game basis, he still finished as RB24 and is being drafted as RB10.

Is it realistic to expect him to avoid injuries, beat out Mostert and Wright for more touches, and maintain the same efficiency on higher usage? If not, then he’s being drafted too high.