The Houston Texans have plenty to be optimistic about this season. After a breakout rookie season by CJ Stroud last year, expectations are sky-high. Arguably, the most talented position group for the team comes at wide receiver. The group, however, is one of the more ambiguous pass-catching units in the NFL. Last year’s 2nd round rookie, Tank Dell, managed a strong start to his rookie campaign before it was cut short with a broken leg. Nico Collins broke out dramatically, finishing the season as one of the most effective deep targets in the league.
Despite the position already looking strong entering the season, the Texans added 4-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs in a trade with the Buffalo Bills this offseason. Following Week 1 of the NFL season there’s a clearer picture of how this crowded receiver room will operate. There will be swings game-to-game in how each player is utilized, but Week 1’s game plan utilized each receiver’s strengths effectively.
If You Have Them, Use Them
There were questions about whether one of the top 3 wide receivers would be clearly behind the others in the pecking order. It is clear after Week 1 – that is not the intention. The Texans ran 40 passing plays, and Collins and Dell were on the field for 34 of them, while Diggs was out there for 36. The next-highest wide receiver, Xavier Hutchinson, only logged five passing play snaps.
In 2023 the Texans ranked only 23rd in 11 personnel usage with a rate of 60.5%. That figure will likely be much higher throughout this season with the added firepower at wide receiver, and the vast majority of those three wide receiver sets will feature the Texans “Big 3”. Targets were also relatively evenly distributed. Collins led the team with eight targets, followed by Dell with seven and Diggs with 6.
Effective Usage
While the three receivers each found themselves on the field and being targeted at a similar rate, their usage was very different. How Diggs was used, in particular, was a big question entering the game. We had data on Stroud throwing to Collins and Dell but not with Diggs until this week. As expected, Collins lined up outside on most snaps. He played out of the slot less than 15% of the time. Diggs and Dell split time out of the slot, with Diggs at 64% and Dell at 29%. This shouldn’t be too surprising, either.
While Dell physically looks like a slot receiver, his game is not restricted to that area of the field. Last year, he was only lined up in the slot 29% of the time, and in college, he split his time almost evenly between the slot and out wide. The slot is more fitting for Diggs, who doesn't have the same downfield explosiveness as the other two.
The most interesting aspect of their usage was where each receiver was being targeted. Their average depth of target (ADOT) shows the most dramatic difference in usage between the returning duo and Diggs. In Week 1, Diggs had an ADOT of 1.7 yards. Collins and Dell were at 16.3 and 16.6, respectively. For reference, among wide receivers with 50+ targets last season (a 50-player sample size), the lowest ADOT was 5 yards, and the highest was 17.9.
It's unlikely that any of the receivers will maintain that dramatic of an ADOT throughout a season, particularly Diggs, but it gives an indication of where on the field they plan to use each player. The threat of Collins and Dell deep into the secondary pulled the defense back and left lots of room for Diggs to operate underneath. This is a great way to use Diggs’ route running and feel for a defense while not relying on the athleticism of a 30-year-old receiver downfield.
Most of Diggs’ drop in production last year came with an OC change that moved the focus of the gameplan to running the ball. That’s not to say there were no signs of decline. Diggs struggled to separate downfield and win at the catch point through coverage. Skill at the catch point and separation on routes are Collins and Dell’s strengths respectively. The Texans can perfectly hide Diggs' declining ability downfield while using his skills underneath to further open up their young receivers all over the field.
Between Collins and Dell, there’s a lot of overlap in routes, but the way they were targeted was different. Collins is a much bigger target and saw targets in tighter windows over the middle of the field. Dell’s targets came on plays where he created more separation and worked outside the numbers.
Nico Collins is the Alpha
There was a case for each receiver to be the top option coming into 2024. Dell saw 43 targets across his final four games before injury last season, something Collins didn’t do during any four-game stretch of his career. Diggs has been one of the best wide receivers in the league for the past four years, earning 156+ targets each season. Collins was joined by only Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson as a receiver to finish in the top 7 in yards per route run (YPRR) against both man and zone coverages.
Despite a Week 1 performance that saw all three receivers with relatively even targets and snaps, one wide receiver stood clearly above the others – Nico Collins. Collins showed dominance at every level of the field in this game. His first target was on a go route into double coverage, where he elevated above both defenders to haul in the catch. It was a Calvin Johnson-esque highlight. With less than 30 seconds left in the 1st half, Collins picked up a 1st down on 3rd and five on a slant route with a defender on his hip before driving the defender back another 8 yards to get the Texans into field goal range. In the 3rd quarter, Collins showed off his connection with Stroud.
A perfect comeback route where he left the defender looking lost on the cut and brought in the perfectly anticipated throw from Stroud. Possibly the most impressive play was the one that saved the game in the 4th quarter. In a 2-point game facing a 3rd and 11 on their own side of the field with two minutes remaining, Stroud delivered a strike to a diving Collins, who managed to hold on with an acrobatic catch.
There’s also reason to believe this isn’t the best we’ve seen of Collins. Collins is much better against man defense than zone, with a YPRR of 4.43 against man vs 2.78 against zone. Collins is great no matter what coverage he sees, but he’s particularly dangerous in man coverage. In Week 1, he did not see a single target in man coverage. While it’s likely that he’ll see even less man coverage this year, teams won't be able to rely exclusively on zone defense with the Texans' many weapons.
When the Texans need someone to move the chains or when the game is on the line, Collins is the go-to option. In addition to his ability to regularly win on deep routes down the field, Collins is going to have a lot of dominant performances this year. Diggs and Dell are great receivers and will have their games, but Nico Collins is this team’s number one.
