With over 90 starting wide receivers in the NFL, it is arguably the league's deepest and most diverse position group. You’ve got all types of cliques; the joystick speedsters like Tyreek Hill, Jameson Williams, and Jayden Reed. Your route tree savants, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. How about those alien freakazoids otherwise known as DK Metcalf, Nico Collins, and Brian Thomas Jr?
In this article, I want to bring to your attention a small group of receivers that all share one commonality. Through two weeks, all of these receivers have shown signs of blowing consensus pre-season expectations out of the water, and their roles are only continuing to expand in their respective offenses. Aside from that one fact, these receivers have vastly different skill sets and find themselves in indistinguishable offensive situations. Some of these players have already been written off, some you've never heard of, and finally an entirely injured wide receiver room necessitating a top target.
Quentin Johnston
Out of all the receivers mentioned in this article, none have a higher overall production ceiling than Quentin Johnston. The path to Johnston leading his team in targets is as clear as a sunny day, and with a generational talent throwing him the football, there's no reason to think that volume can turn into serious numbers. Standing at 6'4, Johnston ranks in the 97% percentile in the NFL for broadjump, and 96% for wingspan. Combining those natural traits with the anger and desire at which he attacks 50/50 balls, it makes sense why the TCU prospect was selected 21st overall only a year ago.
Rather importantly, QJ was selected by the past regime, since fully fired. Poor coaching and quarterback injuries - variables Johnston had no control over - were significant factors in his comically poor 38 for 430 rookie line. Something Johnston does have control over his hands, though you may think overwise based on some of the drops he put on tape last year.
In his rookie year, it took Johnston seven weeks to record more than 3 targets and 2 catches. This 'breakout game' in Week 7 came in tandem with Justin Herbert's best game of the season (31 completions, 300 yards, and 3 touchdowns), and still just resulted in 5 catches for 50 yards for Johnston. Far from ideal for a 'breakout game' your first-round pick. From that same game, none of the top weapons Austin Ekeler (7-94-1), Keenan Allen (8-69), and Donald Parham (4-43-1) are still on the team.
The need for a top weapon is there, and thankfully for Johnston, the opportunity is right there for him to catch. And for the first time, I'm trusting his hands... However, as a remnant, even a reminder of the former failed regime, Quentin Johnston's place on the Charger's 2024 depth chart was far from guaranteed. Especially considering the new head coach John Harbaugh brings a level of intensity, professionalism, and winning attitude unbeknownst to the Chargers franchise. The new coaching staff praised the second-year receiver this offseason for his dedication and growth, but this type of coach-speak is necessary for a player lacking in confidence, so good on Haurbaugh. But then again, words mean anything in the NFL.
Well, two weeks into the Haurbaugh rein, those words seem to be translating directly into targets. Through two games, Johnston has 8 catches on 11 targets for 89 yards and 2 TDs. I know these numbers don't blow you out of the water, but Johnston's two scores are already level with his total from all of last year, where he managed to top 38 yards in back-to-back games only once. There's no doubt these numbers are trending in the right direction.
Most encouraging of all, his first target last week came only a few minutes into the first quarter - a designed screen - highlighting the new coaching staff's desire to get him more involved early on in open space, where he thrives. Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge fan of Ladd McConkey and his ability to create space before the ball arrives, but Johnston can be the perfect YAC Brock Bowers archetype to compliment. Despite going in a similar range in the NFL draft, McConkey wasn't nearly as productive as Johnston in their respective college offenses.
Through two games, McConkey also has 11 targets but has turned those into just 7-65-1. Having already been written off by thousands of Chargers fans and fantasy football heads, Quentin Johnston can continue to slowly change the narrative with another strong showing this week against the Steelers. Don't be surprised when the general perception surrounding Quinton Johnston as a player has completely shifted by the end of the year.
Jalen Nailor
There's a long list of college WRs that dominated the box score but received little to no draft hype. On the other end of the spectrum, there are guys like Ladd McConkey, who didn’t produce monstrous numbers yet still was drafted high. The next receiver on this list neither dominated the box score in college nor was selected high in the draft without collegiate production.
Despite starting all four years at Michigan State, Jalen Nailor never topped 700 yards. Nicknamed ‘Speedy’, a 230-yard multi-touchdown day late into his senior season put him on the map, where he would eventually become the Minnesota Vikings 6th round pick in 2022.
Anyone who spent time at Vikings training camp this offseason could tell the Nailor breakout thus far was no surprise to them. Don’t believe me, ask Justin Jefferson, who labeled Nailor a ‘sleeper’ and a ‘big-time’ player for the Vikings in the upcoming season. Injuries and a general lack of opportunities have prevented Nailor from getting play time his first two years, but going into year three things are quickly changing. Jordan Addison has already been ruled out for Week 3, and Justin Jefferson exited last week's game with a quad contusion, meaning if he’s unable to go Sunday versus the Texans, Jalen ‘Speedy’ Nailor could be the team's top pass-catching option.
Through the first two weeks, Nailor has already been thrust into a major role no one expected. With TJ Hockenson unavailable, Nailor played 43% of the snaps as the team's wide receiver three in Week 1, but after Jordan Addison left the game, that number was bound to increase in Week 2. Sure enough, Nailor’s 94% snap share, four targets, and second consecutive game with a score are all signs the player is ready to take the next step. With the team's offensive injuries, this next step may be bigger, and come sooner than anyone could have expected.
Even if Jefferson gets the green light, Nailor will again play every snap. Having already shown a rapport with Sam Darnold, Week 3 is Nailor's chance to nail down a starting gig for good. The Vikings have a knack for developing wide receivers, which may provide an unfortunate blessing for Jalen Nailor who has a chance to make a name for himself in Week 3, and beyond.
Jalen Tolbert
I already brought you one Jalen, I’m about to raise you another: Dallas Cowboys third-year receiver Jalen Tolbert. On the surface, Tolbert’s situation reminds me so much of Jalen Nailor. If everything goes right, both young pass catchers have the chance to solidify themselves as consistent options in their respective passing games. With sheriffs CD Lamb and JJettas in town, neither Jalen has a path to being their team's top target-getter, but in high-volume passing offenses, a role is there for the taking.
Like Nailor, Tolbert already has a season where he’s missed 12+ games (his rookie year). Then in year two, he finished without a reception in eight games, failing to go over 59% snap share in all but one game. Within the Cowboys organization - and me, considering I drafted him as a sleeper in every league last year - expectations were high, but ultimately he flopped in his first fully healthy NFL season. He finished 6th on his team in every major statistical receiving category, with almost 50 fewer targets than 30-year-old Brandin Cooks.
I wasn’t planning on falling for the Jalen Tolbert trap again in Year 3, but after two weeks I believe the player is ascending too rapidly to ignore. It all started this offseason when Tolbert received rave reviews from his coaching staff and star quarterback. Dak Prescott's exact words were, "My trust is super, super high in him, I trust him with any route, wherever it is against whoever", per NFL.com's Grant Cordon.
Encouraging stuff, but again it means nothing until they actually connect in the game, and it looked like all the hype had let down after Tolbert put up 1 catch for 12 yards in Week 1 and Cooks was still staying on the field. Pop the hood, though, and Tolbert's 66% snap share in Week 1 is a bar he’d only surpassed once in 19 healthy games the year prior. Then, in Week 2 this number jumped to 84%, but it's slightly deceiving.
The Cowboys trailed by 15+ points for most of the game, hence Dak and Co threw on a disproportionate amount of downs. So, while Tolbert logged a near career-high 84% snap share, Cooks was also right up there with 82%, suggesting the Cowboys leaned on 3 receiver sets. Even so, for the first time in his young career, Tolbert had technically been on the field longer than Cooks. Could this be an indication of their roles flipping?
Cooks ended the game with 2/2 for 19 yards, and Tolbert with 9/6 for 82 yards, punctuated by a fabulous leaping 50/50 grab. It's clear that Tolbert is the ascending player in this offense, and Cooks’ arrow is pointed down. If Tolbert's snap share and targets continue to trend in the same direction, we may see a monster game against the Ravens in Week 3 in what should be another shootout. With an uninspiring running game and massively underperforming defense, Prescott and the Cowboys won’t be able to help themselves from throwing the ball in 2024, and I think Jalen Tolbert can be a massive benefactor in Week 3, and beyond as his role continues to grow.
Healthy Rams Receivers
Almost every year since the team's Super Bowl victory in 2022, reports that Sean McVay might walk away from the game have dominated headlines. For the highs the team achieved under McVay, they’ve equally had some of the lowest lows. This offseason, the team wasn’t able to prevent arguably the league's greatest-ever defender from retiring, despite Aaron Donald still playing in his prime. Jared Verse, the team's 2024 first-round pick, is their first of such since 2016. We’re talking about a team that develops in-house and trusts coaching and scouts to identify talent.
Only two weeks into the 2024 campaign, the narrative seems already written that the team won't be able to overcome its tsunami of injuries on both sides of the ball. With Puka Nacua scheduled for a long stay on IR and Cooper Kupp expected to return ‘sooner rather than later’ from a high ankle sprain, there’s serious concern surrounding Stafford's passing options.
Unfortunately for the Rams, they can’t hit pause on their season, so it looks like against the 49ers this Sunday the team will trot out a quartet of Tyler Johnson, Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington, and Demarcus Robinson. It’s the first three, all 26 and below, that I want to focus on. Let's start with Atwell, who, at the age of 24, is the most senior Rams pass catcher of this group. With Kupp absent to start the 2023 year, Atwell had more than an 87% snap share in 10 out of the 11 opening games, including a 100-plus-yard performance in Week 1. However in more than half the games after Week 12 this number tanked to below 7%.
Despite injuries to Nacua in Week 1 and Kupp in Week 2, Atwell's early season usage (sub 30% in both games) suggests he’s not destined for an expanded role despite injuries ahead of him on the depth chart. A young second-round pick in 2021, Atwell still has the potential to be valuable in this league, but I don’t think this is the moment he shows it. Next, we have Tyler Johnson, a player who showed immense promise in his early career as a Buccaneer. In 2021 as the Buc's wide receiver three behind Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Johnson finished the year posting 55% target share in 12/13 games en route to a Super Bowl championship. Since then, however, Johnson has surprisingly bounced around practice squads.
Promoted him from the practice squad for Week 1, once Nacua left it was Johnson, not Atwell, who played every snap. He then came out and posted an 87% snap share in Week 2. With Kupp's injury, this number will surely go up again this week. After a seven-target Week 1, the former Gopher fell to earth with only three in Week 2, but honestly, I’m not discouraged. Having just turned 26, Johnson has a real chance to dominate Matthew Stafford's attention in Week 3, and at the very least we know he’ll be on the field the whole game.
Finally, I’ve saved my favorite of this bunch for last, Jordan Whittington. The 6th-round rookie led the team in targets (17) and catches (12) this preseason, and is the prototypical Sean McVay receiver. Despite par athletic traits, Whittington is a student of the game, crediting his consistency on the field as a Texas Longhorn to an obsession with film review. Labeled by many as a deep sleeper going into this year, he logged just one snap on offense in Week 1, absent from the box score. He did have a two-yard touchdown run called back.
I was super interested to see what his snap share would look like in Week 2 with Nacua out, and sure enough, it skyrocketed to 50%. The arrow is trending up, and with a gunslinger like Stafford throwing him the ball - and little WR depth standing in front of him - Whittington has the perfect opportunity to carve out a role in an offense requiring a pass-catcher to step up.
