With Pete Carrol retiring last season, the Seattle Seahawks had a difficult decision of the best direction to move as a franchise. To replace Carrol, the team turned to first-time head coach Mike Macdonald who was previously the defensive coordinator for the Baltimore Ravens. With Macdonald in charge of the defense, the team needed to prioritize a forward-thinking offensive coordinator to allow Macdonald to get familiar with leading a team.
The team ended up staying in the state by turning to Washington Huskies’ offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. Washington’s offense was best known for its passing attack, with Michael Penix Jr. leading the way. Even if you watched college football closely, most people would expect the move for Grubb would simply make the team a pass-heavy team. While that has been true, it’s important to examine what Grubb’s true approach to offense is.
Ryan Grubb Maximizing His Personnel
As I mentioned, the team has been passing more, with the second-highest pass rate in the NFL at 67% and the highest pass rate over expected at 6.8%. However, what Grubb has always focused on, even going back to his Fresno State days, is what type of offense maximizes his team’s personnel. To show the difference between Grubb at Washington and Fresno State, Washington had a pass rate of 62% in 2023, but Fresno State was never higher than 58.1% while Grubb was the offensive coordinator there.
What I believe caused Grubb to have a higher pass rate at Washington than Fresno State is simply where the team was most talented. Washington’s 2023 roster had three wide receivers who would go on to be picked within the first 100 picks in the 2024 NFL draft in Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan, as well as already mentioned first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Meanwhile, Fresno State didn’t have nearly the talent at receiver forcing Grubb to go a different direction. So, while other offensive coordinators would force their offense sometimes to the detriment of their team, Grubb adapted.
Speaking of forcing their offense, last year, it felt that the team’s former offensive coordinator, Shane Waldron, would get caught doing this and not maximizing his players’ talent. We saw this impact Jaxon Smith-Njigba the most, limiting his downfield production and ability to be much of a difference maker, so much so that it led to the infamous Smith-Njigba clip discussing Waldron this last offseason. We are even seeing much of the same issues with Waldron trying to run passing concepts that Caleb Williams doesn’t have the time to let develop and is limiting the receivers into very specific roles that don’t maximize their impact.
Meanwhile, Ryan Grubb has been expanding the team’s use of Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and while it isn’t perfect, it is a step in the right direction, with his ADOT trending in the right direction as proof. D.K. Metcalf so far has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the offense, going into Rome Odunze’s former role, which allowed Odunze to rise to a top ten draft selection in the last draft. Grubb has done a good job getting him one-on-one opportunities to win with his size and strength, which has led to him having three straight games with at least 100 yards receiving. Also, he could have had a bigger week last week had the refs avoided questionable calls.
The Key to Reach the Ceiling of the Offense
Now, the improved usage of the receivers is great, but Geno Smith is the one who can fully unlock the best version of this team. I know it’s cliché to say the quarterback is the most important piece of an offense. However, while Smith has been good, he is right in that awkward area where he is good enough to win regular season games but may not be good enough to drive the team deep into the playoffs.
While Geno Smith is capable of putting together good drives for the offense, his difficulties in the red zone are the biggest thing holding him back from being a great quarterback. Smith has been on a downward trajectory in the red zone completing just 53.9% of his passes in the red zone in 2022, 43.1% in 2023, and has only completed 36.4% of his passes to start this year. Ryan Grubb helped Michael Penix Jr. have one of the highest completion percentages in the red zone last year in college, so it’s been disappointing to see Grubb not elevate Smith in the same way.
However, just like I mentioned before, Grubb has adjusted to Geno Smith’s struggles. Washington’s offense had the third-highest passing attempts in the red zone last season, but Seattle is only tied for 25th in the NFL to start the year. So, while Grubb has again adjusted his offensive tendencies to play to his personnel’s strength, Smith emerging as a more deadly threat in the red zone can be the difference between the offense being a good chain-moving offense and the team being potentially the top-scoring offense in the NFL.
